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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS3 - Reclaiming number one in 08/09'

windbane on 18 April 2007
NorthStar said:
DigitalHero said:

There are a couple very simple things going against the PS3 reclaiming #1.

1. No console in a given generation that was the most expensive never took the first spot against cheaper competitiors. Look at Saturn, 3DO, Turbo Grafx 16, and Neo Geo for great examples.

2. This one is kind of superstitious but no console in the past 20 years has ever dominated for more than two generations straight.

Add to the fact that Wii is outselling it by a large margin and Microsoft is formidable competitor makes a Sony "comeback" extrememly hard but not impossible. I believe Nintendo will be the #1 for this gen. (Just look at vg charts on how fast they are catching up and either PS3 or 360 will be at #2. Its harder to determine that one.)

 


Well to you 1st point Saturn never realy had a chance the end of the Genesis was so ugly that sega was widely hated... see 32X Sega CD rip off(PS2 still going strong) All of the others were 1st and last attempt consoles and last attempt too..no exclusive games with no first party games or any fanbase...

As for your second point you mention in the Past 20 years no console has dominated for more than 2 generations straight..You forget to mention that the ONLY system to dominate in 2 straight generations is Sony PS1-PS2 so they have proved something that no console has ever done already (most PS2 owners have not yet jumped to "next gen" but i am possitive that most Gamecube and Xbox owners have converted to Next gen)

I do agree the wii is selling now alot off of the very affordable price and the Mass appeal it has. I do not know if it will be passed by PS3 or not ,but unlike any generation of consoles before there is a clear difference in the PS3/360 compared to the Wii...I really do not think Sony and Microsoft are in direct competition as they are not after the same market The Wii is more of a replacement of the famliy board game concept then a next gen system. Nintendo wants every one to feel comfortable withe the game unit. PS3 and 360 are the next generation Video game consoles for the single player/online multi-player single teen -adult gamer. Lastly the one thing Sony has coming is Games....that will help ,but when the 1st party Sequels start dropping then thats when the real PS3 surge will come ... ie. the next Socom, Grand Turismo 4,Rachet&Clank, God of WarIII. Those games coupled with MGS4 those are alot of the titles that will convert many PS2 owners to PS3(and price cuts due to falling costs from bluraydiode and IBM components).


Indeed, the SNES did not dominate the Genesis.  Thanks for pointing that out, I forgot to refute that.  Sony is the first to dominate 2 generations in a row.

I agree with your analysis of the PS3 versus Wii.  There is a clear difference and plenty of games to convince people to get a PS3 even if the other 2 also have those games (so far I'd say each only has a few, but that's me). 



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Louis277 on 18 April 2007
NorthStar said:

 


Well to you 1st point Saturn never realy had a chance the end of the Genesis was so ugly that sega was widely hated... see 32X Sega CD rip off(PS2 still going strong) All of the others were 1st and last attempt consoles and last attempt too..no exclusive games with no first party games or any fanbase...

As for your second point you mention in the Past 20 years no console has dominated for more than 2 generations straight..You forget to mention that the ONLY system to dominate in 2 straight generations is Sony PS1-PS2 so they have proved something that no console has ever done already (most PS2 owners have not yet jumped to "next gen" but i am possitive that most Gamecube and Xbox owners have converted to Next gen)

I do agree the wii is selling now alot off of the very affordable price and the Mass appeal it has. I do not know if it will be passed by PS3 or not ,but unlike any generation of consoles before there is a clear difference in the PS3/360 compared to the Wii...I really do not think Sony and Microsoft are in direct competition as they are not after the same market The Wii is more of a replacement of the famliy board game concept then a next gen system. Nintendo wants every one to feel comfortable withe the game unit. PS3 and 360 are the next generation Video game consoles for the single player/online multi-player single teen -adult gamer. Lastly the one thing Sony has coming is Games....that will help ,but when the 1st party Sequels start dropping then thats when the real PS3 surge will come ...   ie. the  next Socom, Grand Turismo 4,Rachet&Clank, God of WarIII. Those games coupled with MGS4 those are alot of the titles that will convert many PS2 owners to PS3(and price cuts due to falling costs from bluraydiode and IBM components). 


Far before PS1 & PS2, nintendo NES and SNES did achieved the same domination and then N64 is consider to be a failure successor. Also, Sony and Microsoft are in direct competition in terms of leading edge graphic technology, exclusive titles and online components. They are compete with each other in order to be the future home multi-media entertainment console leader. Only Wii consider itself as a pure gaming console with differentiation in terms of game play if compare with the previous 2 company.

Lot of people say PS3 got a lot of self developed /3rd party master hit title in the coming future. But in my eyes, only the following title can push PS3 console sales in worldwide :

GT5 / God of War 3 / MGS4 / FFXIII. (Sony better arrange those title launch at the same period)

How about others like Killzone 2 ? I doubt it as consider the first title sales

And PS3 price cut is not easy consider of it highest selling point in the gaming console history(60GB price almost doubt than PS2 launch) and still suffer from a loss in terms of cost...

Of course we can expect PS3 drop the price to the level of PS2 that most of the people can afford in 3 or 4 years time. But that's the time while Nintendo and Microsoft prepare to launch their next generation console again.

Sony PS3 road is still tough....



Quartz on 18 April 2007

PS3 - Reclaiming number one in 08/09' The part about this that I see is Sony being able to win back public confidence, not just through some great games but to give the impression of 'Here is a great system, with great games and it will last a long time in this generation'. Until they are able to up public confidence about the system and make it more appealing to people than just the brand name alone it's not going to shift very fast.



Good to see this site is still going 

Darc Requiem on 18 April 2007

The SNES DID dominate the Genesis. The only region in which the Genesis sold well was the US. The Genesis(Mega Drive) got obliterated in Japan. If I remember correctly the SNES sold 49 million consoles worldwide to the Genesis' 30 million. The SNES took the US and Japan. The Genesis took a narrow lead in Europe. Neither the SNES nor the Genesis sold that well in Europe.

 Also if you look at the sales thus far. This is what the PS3 would have to do to break even with the 360 and the Wii by the end of 08 and the end of 09:

 The PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by 380,000 units a month world wide to break even with the 360 by the end of 2008. The PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by 220,000 units a month world wide to break even with it by the end of 2009.

The PS3 would have to outsell the Wii by 200,000 units a month world wide to break even with it by the end of 2008. To break even with the Wii by 2009, the PS3 would have to outsell the Wii by 122,000 units a month worldwide.

That is just to break even. I don't see either happening by 2008. While 2009, would be a more likely point, I dont see that happening either. 

 

 



windbane on 18 April 2007
Darc Requiem said:

The SNES DID dominate the Genesis. The only region in which the Genesis sold well was the US. The Genesis(Mega Drive) got obliterated in Japan. If I remember correctly the SNES sold 49 million consoles worldwide to the Genesis' 30 million. The SNES took the US and Japan. The Genesis took a narrow lead in Europe. Neither the SNES nor the Genesis sold that well in Europe.

Also if you look at the sales thus far. This is what the PS3 would have to do to break even with the 360 and the Wii by the end of 08 and the end of 09:

The PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by 380,000 units a month world wide to break even with the 360 by the end of 2008. The PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by 220,000 units a month world wide to break even with it by the end of 2009.

The PS3 would have to outsell the Wii by 200,000 units a month world wide to break even with it by the end of 2008. To break even with the Wii by 2009, the PS3 would have to outsell the Wii by 122,000 units a month worldwide.

That is just to break even. I don't see either happening by 2008. While 2009, would be a more likely point, I dont see that happening either.

 

 


Correct, but 60% compared to 70% market share, and the PS2 had 2 competitors.  The Genesis sold more (2 generations earlier) than xbox by 6 million and the xbox beat the gamecube by 3 million.  Also, 10 million fewer SNES were sold than NES.  The Genesis did outsell the SNES in "others" as you say, but it only sold twice as much in the US compared to "others" which is the usual trend for US versus Europe until the PS1 came along, so the "Others" numbers weren't too bad.

I dunno, if 60% is domination then fine, but it wasn't the clear domination that PS1 and PS2 displayed. 



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Darc Requiem on 18 April 2007

Windbane, you are forgetting about the PC Engine/TG-16. The SNES had at least two competitors. The TG-16 was leading in Japan before the SNES took over and out paced the Mega Drive. Hell if it weren't for horrible management in the states, who knows what the TG-16 could have done. That is another topic however.



robjoh on 18 April 2007
Darc Requiem said:

The SNES DID dominate the Genesis. The only region in which the Genesis sold well was the US. The Genesis(Mega Drive) got obliterated in Japan. If I remember correctly the SNES sold 49 million consoles worldwide to the Genesis' 30 million. The SNES took the US and Japan. The Genesis took a narrow lead in Europe. Neither the SNES nor the Genesis sold that well in Europe.

 Also if you look at the sales thus far. This is what the PS3 would have to do to break even with the 360 and the Wii by the end of 08 and the end of 09:

 The PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by 380,000 units a month world wide to break even with the 360 by the end of 2008. The PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by 220,000 units a month world wide to break even with it by the end of 2009.

The PS3 would have to outsell the Wii by 200,000 units a month world wide to break even with it by the end of 2008. To break even with the Wii by 2009, the PS3 would have to outsell the Wii by 122,000 units a month worldwide.

That is just to break even. I don't see either happening by 2008. While 2009, would be a more likely point, I dont see that happening either. 

 

 


When is the start datum for those numbers? This month? If so these numbers is going to be even worse because it doesn't look to good in Japan for PS3.



 

 

Buy it and pray to the gods of Sigs: Naznatips!

Darc Requiem on 18 April 2007
robjoh said:
Darc Requiem said:

The SNES DID dominate the Genesis. The only region in which the Genesis sold well was the US. The Genesis(Mega Drive) got obliterated in Japan. If I remember correctly the SNES sold 49 million consoles worldwide to the Genesis' 30 million. The SNES took the US and Japan. The Genesis took a narrow lead in Europe. Neither the SNES nor the Genesis sold that well in Europe.

Also if you look at the sales thus far. This is what the PS3 would have to do to break even with the 360 and the Wii by the end of 08 and the end of 09:

The PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by 380,000 units a month world wide to break even with the 360 by the end of 2008. The PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by 220,000 units a month world wide to break even with it by the end of 2009.

The PS3 would have to outsell the Wii by 200,000 units a month world wide to break even with it by the end of 2008. To break even with the Wii by 2009, the PS3 would have to outsell the Wii by 122,000 units a month worldwide.

That is just to break even. I don't see either happening by 2008. While 2009, would be a more likely point, I dont see that happening either.

 

 


When is the start datum for those numbers? This month? If so these numbers is going to be even worse because it doesn't look to good in Japan for PS3.


Well actually my numbers are off. I just recalculated them. I didn't use enough months. There are 20 months until the end of 2008 and 32 months until the end of 2009. That being the case. The PS3 needs to outsell the 360 by 326,000 units a month and the Wii by 177,000 units a month to equal each consoles sales by 2008. As for the end of 2009, the PS3 needs to outsell the 360 by 204,000 units a month and the Wii by 110,000 units a month.



windbane on 18 April 2007
Darc Requiem said:
Windbane, you are forgetting about the PC Engine/TG-16. The SNES had at least two competitors. The TG-16 was leading in Japan before the SNES took over and out paced the Mega Drive. Hell if it weren't for horrible management in the states, who knows what the TG-16 could have done. That is another topic however.

Oh, I'm sorry, I only deal with systems that matter.  If you want to throw that in, I'll raise you cell phone gaming in today's market.  What about flash games?  Geez.



davygee on 18 April 2007
Darc Requiem said:

Well actually my numbers are off. I just recalculated them. I didn't use enough months. There are 20 months until the end of 2008 and 32 months until the end of 2009. That being the case. The PS3 needs to outsell the 360 by 326,000 units a month and the Wii by 177,000 units a month to equal each consoles sales by 2008. As for the end of 2009, the PS3 needs to outsell the 360 by 204,000 units a month and the Wii by 110,000 units a month.


I think the PS3 will be in 2nd position by the end of 2008 and will be pushing for first by the end of 2009 or during 2010.

Rough workings out based on my opinion are:

End of 2007 - Wii: 16m, 360: 15m, PS3: 10m 

End of 2008 - Wii: 26m, 360: 19m, PS3: 22m

End of 2009 - Wii: 31m, 360: 21m, PS3: 30m



Prediction (June 12th 2017)

Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)