Something that seems to be a major argument as of late is this idea that PS3 will take off in 2008 or 2009.

One thing I have enjoyed about this site, is that data and factual debate seems to be on the forefront of this forum. This isn't the typical Fanboy spot show that many other video game forums seem to be.

With that said, I want to note that I have been in video games for nearly twenty years now.

So my question to all that purpose this concept is this:

Can you show me any place in console history were hardware came back one to two years after it's launch to capture, and secure, the number one spot in sales and the market as a whole?

This isn’t meant to be a rib of any sort, I’ve just never heard of a such a rebound in the gaming world (and that certainly doesn't mean it hasn't happened), and I’m curious why so many feel this will happen with PS3.

Also, just for clarification, I’m not talking about a system pulling up from second place after making up a deficit due to a prior launch of a competitive console; As the argument seems to have an inevitable rebound built into the projection.

SNES

 Genesis had quite a lead in its heyday. It took a couple of years for the SNES to finally surpass the Genesis. However the comparison doesn't quite work because the SNES started off quite strong. I personally think Sony's got a good chance to pull the same sort of thing off because simply because I think this generation will be the longest one we've ever seen. I really don't believe we'll see a new round of consoles in 4-5 years like we have in the past because the 360 and PS3 are already so powerful. On top of that, every successive new generation is tougher and tougher on the developers; more and more of them close down in the trasition (Clover is one example). The third reason is that I believe people are finding it more difficult to justify buying a brand new system. Personally, I would've loved to keep playing my PS2 and GC for another couple of years, and I think a lot of people have a similar attitude. That's why the PS2 keeps selling as well as it did last year. With such short console cycles in the past it was too difficult to overcome an early deficit. Now Sony has much more time to work with.

The PS1 got off to a slow start, I think, before overwhelming the competition. But it's hard to imagine any single console dominating this time around. Reason: the game market is no longer a single market, it's hugely diverse. Casual/social gamers will buy the Wii/PS2, hardcore gamers will buy the 360/PS3, media connoisseurs will probably buy PS3s... this is even true in portables, where the PSP and NDS serve two very different markets. Meanwhile, much of the world will be playing games on cellphones... It's the same thing with cars, the days of the Model-T are done, nowadays some people want that trusty Camry, others want the styling BMW. Which is good for the industry and good for gamers -- more choices for all. Instead of an overall number one this time, we're likely to have specific markets where one platform or another does better than the others.

Ah the SNES.

Yes, it seem to be one of the rare exceptions in the industry on many levels, and I knew this would be the main console brought up for debate.

You’re right in the fact that the comparison doesn’t quite work as SNES sales were very strong (especially in Japan.) But also the fact that Genesis had a two year lead over SNES, as it was initially designed to compete with NES also puts a damper on the comparison as it falls into the stipulation about the install base deficit.

Also, the Playstation never was last in the fifth generation. I don’t believe it ever fell behind in total sales of the Saturn, although it started out that way, but even if it did the point it moot as people tend to forget that 3DO, Amiga CD-32, and Jaguar were all apart of that mix.

It’s a bit of a trick question on my part when I toss in the stipulation I suppose. Only due to the fact that I don’t think we have ever seen a console fall behind to last place, only to have a resurgence to the number one spot. We have had consoles start in last place an finish first though.

So essentially this answers one of my questions to myself: The answer being that Sony will have made history in the business if it becomes number one as it was released before the Wii. Granted we are only talking about an eight day difference, but Sony was number two for a small period of time.

Obviously though, many variables change in markets and in life in general. And sometimes contrasting and comparing things from the past to the present isn't always fair ( look at sports. )

I just really wanted to underline the fact that no console has ever fallen to last place, to rise like a phoenix and take over as number one.

It will be interesting to see of Sony can do it.

 I agree. The PS3/360 are to the point of being so powerful... and so big (actual chip size) I'm sure the PS3/360 have the largest chips for a 'launch' console. (that means the most expensive)

Why do I say this? Because 6 years ago when the PS2/x-box launch, the 'size' of the graphics chip was like 25-30% that of the size of the one in the PS3/360. The chips are so big, so expensive. It's the size, the power use. I'm not saying chips wont get smaller in the future, I'm not saying the chips in the PS3/360 will get smaller, use less power, and be cheaper to make. But what I am saying is, the graphics chip on the 360, I "think" uses more power than the entire x-box. What this means is, in 6 years I think the speed will go up 6x (for chip size) Wich means to make a new PS3/360 in 6 years would cost 800-1000$ to produce still. I dont think sony is gonna do that agian. I think their gonna wait till they can make it a little more... 'cheaply'. I dont expect a PS4 (unless it is a upgrade like the GameCube got) to show up in the next 6-8 years. The 360 probibally will be in the same shoes, as the PS3. Likely we wont see a new round of consoles untill nintendo releases their... 2nd new console. (Not Wii2, but whatever comes next)

And expecting this console generation to last that long, here in 2-3 years people will look at the Wii like you look at NES games. (They can be great games, but are they really worth 10$ less than what you pay for a PS3 game?) 

I think that in 2 years when sony has all their big brands out, and good engines on the market, sony should be able to hit at least 1 1st/2nd party game in almost every game classification a year. That is alot of games, and sony's track record is good, so I'd like to try them all.

I think the determining factor this generation will be Multiplatform. PS3/360 is the real console war. Exclusives MATTER. If the PS3 has an exclusive over the 360, people buy the PS3. And the same the other way around. 360/PS3 will both get all multiplatform games. The Wii is not as likely to get the multiplatform games, thus giveing it a sink-hole lack of games. So while the PS3/360 are getting 20-30  medium/high budget multiplatform games a year, the Wii will be getting 10-20 low budget exclusive 3rd party games. The Wii will be hurt by that, but as crappy as multiplatform movie titles, and many other crappy games that are multiplatform cash-cows. IT WORKS. People buy them like candy. (at least in america) Basically the console with the most games win. That will be PS3/360 here in 1-2 years. Due to the way Europe is looking for the PS3/360 battle, it seems to be looking very PS3 so far. And we have already seen what japan is doing between the PS3/360 battle. Basically if the PS3 is the bigger market of the two, it will get the most exclusives, and because of that the PS3 will win.

I'm not gonna defend my logic here. I am just posting it, and giveing lots of reasoning. 

The PS1 did get off to a slow start (consoles weren't really mainstream back then), and the N64 did almost overwhelm it. But the N64 slowed, and eventually died (the darkest period in Nintendo's history IMO) mainly due to pricing/technical issues (forced developers away from it).

Nintendo did not have any CD tech, and carts (2-8MB) just couldn't compete with cheap CD media - especially when "FMV" was in full swing (due to poor 3D graphical nature of the consoles). The N64 was also underpowered in the end (prettier polys, but less polys rendered at anytime - and a weaker CPU, and general architecture).

...

The biggest challenge the PS3 has is this (IMO):

To "win" this generation, they have to outsell the Wii. And at the rate that the Wii is selling/being supported, this is going to be EXTREMELY difficult. All the trends are pointing to the Wii picking up steam, and the PS3 underperforming.

By the time the PS3 picks up some steam at the end of the year (Sept?), the Wii may already have a 5-6m unit headstart.

I really do believe the PS3 will go the way of the PSP - it will be successful, and have some awesome games. It will however not take the #1 spot in overall, worldwide hardware sales (ever) - and will end up with a public perception of being 'beaten' by the Wii.

The unknown factor is this: In 3-4 years time (assuming the Wii is still selling well), will Nintendo release the Wii 2 (say Wii x10 gfx, extra features, etc...) - or will they keep pushing the Wii, and allow Sony to release the next console first.

Surely if the PS3 is "beaten" as I describe below, Sony will have to change their strategy for releasing the next console? Maybe a PS3 "lite", with Wii style controls (or something even more hardcore?).

Maybe Sony will release something like that in the next 2 years (to compete with the Wii), and support the PS3 as well?? (unlikely, but possible...) 

 Thing is Ps3 is not last.  Before the Eu launch, PS3 out sold the 360 in the markets they were released in.

 World wide Ps3 will out sell 360 month after month.  360 is a joke in japan, its fast losing it lead in Eu (lost near 1/3rd of it in already)

and it will lose its #1 in USA soon enouth to the Wii. 

SNES/Genesis... Although its looked at as this great glory period and is even seemingly considered the paradigm of console wars... In fact, that was a rare case where both companies involved blew it.

SEGA was trying to get their own Mario... They finally got Sonic a few years into Genesis' cycle... But this was not a smart move... It proved impossible for them to establish multiple mega-franchises in the face of Nintendo's franchises... They played Nintendo's game, and lost. It was somewhat smart to go after an older audience than Nintendo... They correctly thought that if they could get the young teens, that the younger kids would want what the older kids were playing... But this was too little of a differentiation.

And it was the last smart move SEGA made... They started this big back-and-forth "console war" with Nintendo, that was destructive for both companies. Once they started releasing weird attachments for their console, it was over... And it didn't help that they just didn't manage their money well...

SNES... A case of poor timing... 3D and CD were ready in 1993 or 94 if Nintendo had been willing to ride out NES, which was still dominating Genesis... Instead, Nintendo thought they had to compete with system power, and they followed SEGA right after that same teen audience with their marketing... Essentially two companies fighting over the same pie, which used to belong to one company. Nintendo ended up with a 60% share of the WW market, but their profits diminished greatly, despite Game Boy. A winning console, caught in an awkward middle ground in-between where technology dictated the generational change should belong... Owning merely the 91-94 timeframe before PlayStation came out...

Hard fought console wars are destructive to the industry... We just went through 2 straight generations where 2 companies made tons of cash... Sony got an early lead, and after losing, Nintendo was smart enough to focus on handhelds... And on the bottom line... Both companies made healthy profits, with different niches... Leading up to this console war, there was more hype about MS vs. Sony than there ever was about Sony vs. Ninty... And people should have known this was a bad sign... Its no surprise that both Sony and MS are burning billions now...

I mean, people should realize that its destructive when we use the term "war" to describe it...

Long and short... Yeah, PS3 is dead in the water..

 The PS2 is closer to the NES, as it's the big console from last gen, tiding us over until this gen picks up. That was what the NES was at the dawn of the 16-bit era, so claiming the Wii is the NES here is a fallacy.

 And the multiplatform argument has been proven false as well. Spider Man 3 shows that the Wii can be part of the loop, just with reduced graphics. But that's just an example. The basis of the belief that the Wii will be left out is that somehow HD graphics will be too hard to downgrade to SD, as though the rules of programming somehow change at that level. But now it's changed to the belief that consumers won't find the $10 savings worth their time, which has little basis in any actual known facts. And sales right now don't count, same as multiplatform sales of PS3 games don't count.

Why PS3 will beat wii and 360!

 Look how well its done at $600 with only Resistance and motorstorn.  Good software sales the hardware, we saw it with Gundam in Japan and we will see a jump in march for the USA. 

 It will take less then a year for PS3 to really show its power.  Xmas 2007 it will sell alot, no supply problems, on this day i say 5 million world winde in Nov/Dec 07

 A constant stream of games, alot more relly good games.  Very good 1st party games will drive sales.

Its a game war... right.

2007 

PS3 will really get going right for Xmas, 1st party heavy hitters like Lair, Heavenly Sword, Warhawk, Killzone, Rachat and Clank, Uncharted, plus the support of the huge 3rd party games like GTA4, Assasins Creed and what not.  There will be no shortage of games like right now.

 the reason the 1s party games are so important for Ps3 is becasue well... most every one else has not clue what to do with the Cell, first party do.  they dont give a rats ass about porting and tech specifications on anything else but PS3!  1st party games will differentiate the PS3 and show its superiority over the 360.

PS3 online will be the best, PSN is just the tiny start, Home will be a huge deal.... its a 3d youtube, many will eat this thing up.  It will also make gaming with friends a hell of alot easier.

 Price cut is coming, a late 2007 would be best to drive xmas sales.

2008 

Final Fantasy 13 / Versus, Metal Gear Solid 4 and Gran Turismo 5 hit.... nothing can stop this power house.