I have noticed this year that Sony has been having a very hard time pushing it's new PlayStation3 hardware. Lets look at exactly what is going on with PlayStation3 here where I live abroad and in the industry.

Alright so a few day's ago I descided to walk around and check retailers to see how the PlayStation3 was doing. I was a little suprised to see it doing so poorly. I visited Cosco , FutureShop , RealCanadianSuperstore , Walmart and heard about Zellers stock from a buddy. Cosco had the most units I counted around 30 units on their shelves, no Wii's infact they had less 360's then PS3's. FutureShop had a huge pile of PS3's for sale I asked an employee he said that they hadn't sold many that week, infact I saw a guy who was so upset waiting for his Wii he "Settled for a PS3". I then checked my local RealCanadianSuperstore they had two units in I asked the clerk how they were selling he said horribly he sold one unit in a week and a fresh shipment was do tommorow. My buddy confirmed Zellers also had a huge stock pile up.

Abroad PS3 has sold 3.21m units, far below the expected and targetted goal of 6-million units by the end of the fiscal year. I'm not sure if I remember correctly but didn't GameCube/DreamCast both sell more during their first fiscal year? 

 Third parties are making a mad dash for the Wii and 360 developement is on a slight incline as developers and publishers begin to back away slowly from the PS3. We have prior loyal publisher's like SNK and CodeMasters ditching Sony, apparently Sony turned down numerous SNK projects. Other publishers like Atari claimed they won't be supporting PS3 untill it becomes more affordable. With the high developement costs developers just can't afford it anymore.

 So at the end of the day PlayStation3 is headed on a downward spiral with only a handfull of Killer Apps comming in the near future. Without the third party support Sony will need to rely more heavily on it's first party studios to push the PS3. Could PS3 go the way of Sega Saturn or maybe even DreamCast, or can Sony turn this deadly fall around?

i think that sony is beginning to find themselves in a pickle.  This mainly stems from the fact that they want people to buy into their future.  They aren't providing any more than their competition right now (in fact in many areas they are providing less) and they are charging more.  The expect developers and users to buy into them because of how successful the ps2 was, but software companies want to sell games now and not in 3 years and users want to play games now and not in 3 years.  The average consumer will go into a store and look at what the ps3 has to offer and some sales guy will say, "In 5 years the ps3 will blow everything out of the water!"  The consumer will think, why should i pay an extra 200 to 350 dollars now for something that won't be great for 5 years?  Instead, they want the wii for what it offers in way of control scheme or they purchase a 360 because right now it has the games that sony promised to its users five years from now. 

 Developers are leaving the ps3 for the 360 going multiplatform because there is much more money in the 360 right now.  With just under 10 million around the world plus the ability to easily port to PC this means that they can instantly double their market with very little conversion.  I've programmed some using the XNA development framework, it is a very easy language (but then again, everyone knows that C# is easy to use :D )  The ps3 is harder to develop for but, as factor 5 said, it is easy to port from ps3 to 360 which is why ps3 is losing its exclusives.  Capcom realized that the ps3 has a small (ish) install base and that by bringing games to both ps3 and 360 they can multiple possible sales by a factor of 5... and then once on the 360 they can port seemlessly to PC (ala Lost Planet).  Seeing as this can be done at a small cost it simply makes the cost-benefit ratio lopsided towards benefit.  In terms of development cost, however, the wii might win out.  Developing for the wii will cost about as much as developing for the gamecube. (which actually brings me to another question... why does everyone hate microsoft for abandoning the xbox when nintendo abandoned the gamecube immediately after the wii came out?)  The only extra cost for the wii might be in control scheme, but that should not cost too much... what does this mean for wii owners?  it probably means a plethora of exclusive games... but they will be cheaper games, with reduced quality.  Publishers (such as EA and Ubisoft) will spit out hundreds of games that have short development times and will sell small quanitities, but because the development cost is low they will still make money.  Ubisoft has already begun doing this (red steel, farcry, prince of persia rehash...)  While the best wii games will still come from nintendo... on the ps3 and 360 development is more costly so publishers will put AAA games out for them because its the only way to offset production costs (but this means fewer games, but higher quality)

 Sony has also taken a stance that they won't buy exclusives, microsoft will fund and help promote games.  What does this mean for sony?  it means that publishers will support xbox 360 to offset production costs.  If microsoft will fund advertising (be it trailers and demos on the marketplace to full blown TV ads) this will offset one of the largest expenditures that a company will have, advertising... and thus the developers can focus more on the games themselves and thus more developers will move over to microsoft.  For example: Lost Planet cost a total of 40 million to make, but only about 10 million of that was in development, Microsoft footed a substantial amount of the remaining 30 million in order to advertise the game.  Combining this with the ease of porting to PC is the reason why Lost Planet will move to another Microsoft platform, Windows Vista.

ok... i'm done... didn't mean to type so much   i hope you can appreciate some of my points, i'm not trying to flame anyone.

Sony is in trouble because third party developers are not going to sit around and say "It's ok that we lost $10 Million, I'm sure you'll make it up to us on the sequel!" so it is important that Sony gets more systems sold in order to sell more games. Sony (essentially) has two ways they can save the PS3, they can demonstrate that they can move systems at $600 or they can dramatically reduce the price.

Totally....but because developers are moving to other platforms (Wii and 360) and Sony are losing their console dependant developments...it looks like their only way to move forward is to reduce the price.  And significantly reduce it at that.

I fully expect $100-$150 off by the end of the year or else! 

I don't think the PS3 will end up like either the Saturn nor the Dreamcast. Sony was in a much stronger position at the PS3 launch than Sega was in at either the Saturn or Dreamcast launch. Can Sony turn things around? Of course they can, but the likely hood of that happening diminishes with each passing day.

Sony had more direct control over their fate with the PS2. Sony determined when the their would be price drops for example. This time around they are at MS' mercy when it comes to pricing. Sony had more exclusives and more dedicated third party support. Whether its rising development cost, or the PS3's slow start or a combination of both, Sony has seen what a lot gamers consider PS brand titles head to the 360.

Sony needs Lair, Heavenly Sword, or one of their other new IPs to take off on a GTA like level to push the PS3's sales and wrestle the hardcore market away from MS. If they can manage to do that, the hardcore market should give them enough revenue to get by until they can get the costs of the PS3 down. Once they do that, they will be in a better position to go after the casual market that Nintendo has so successfully targetted.

Basically Sony has to play a perfect hand and hope for things to fall their way as well. I just don't see both of those things happening at this point. In fact, I think its more likely that things fall their way and they misplay their hand. 

Which part of Canada are you from?

Anyway, I don't see why having a particular console in stock at most stores automatically translates into it selling poorly. It just means that they can supply consoles at a rate that's being demanded. That being said, I'm not saying that the PS3 is selling at a successful rate. I agree that Sony is lagging with 3.21m units when the target goal was 6M at the end of March. I would have to attribute this to the fact that the PS3 really doesn't have any killer apps out yet. There is no "must have" titles. Once you see a few emerge, sales will definitely pick up.

Well I definetly don't see the PS3 going the way of the Saturn or Dreamcast. Sony has a brand name in video games that Sega has never come close to. Right now it's about software and price, and until both situations improve it will sell less than the Wii and 360 on a monthly basis. The PS3 has to show steady sales improvement over the next year. If it can it has a shot for a major comeback, with the Blue Ray aspect of the system potentially really pushing sales 1 to 2 years from now. If it becomes a more attractive system to buy the brand name of Sony will kick into gear again. A lot of PS2 owners are on a wait and see approach with the PS3.

The PS3 is in the exact same situation as the PS2 and PSone were before. So I don't really understand why everyone is so negative about the sales of a 600$ console. Only the early adaptors will buy it and after the pricedrop lots of people will follow. It worked 7 years and 12 years ago and will work just the same way with the PS3 once the pricedrop in October comes.

Most people on here want to see Sony fail, that's why they're so happy about the low sales compared to the Wii and keep bitching about it. But you can't compare a 600$ console to a 250$ one. The PS3 will have a way longer lifespan than the Wii and will definately outsell it in time.

Nothing in live is for certain, so the PS3 could ofcourse fail miserably. But nothing points to that direction right now. The first real indication we'll have will be during Christmas. If the PS3 outsells its competitors during that period, the PS3 will probably be the new market leader. If not then the PS3 probably won't.

tao, u Dutch?!

Ik ook! :P

Actually, that's completely wrong.

The PS1 was a completely ground-breaking console - and primarily succeeded 'cos Nintendo stuffed up the N64 (cart media, underpowered, etc).

The PS2 was also an awesome console - ground breaking, and long before anything else came out. Sony also managed to convince everyone that the DC shouldn't be supported, and killed Sega off.

By this time in its lifetime, the PS2 had already sold more units in Japan than the Wii has. Every Japanese developer jumped behind it, it become a huge success in Japan - and this drove the overseas sales, with awesome Japanese games. By the time the GC/Xbox came out, it was already over.

Im not going to start on a deep analysis - just wanted to point out that the situation is completely different. Its not *just* about price - and even if it was, the PS3 is more expensive than either of the previous consoles.

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The PS3 won't die - but it may fall into the same position as the PSP. A few big sellers, but never gaining the "dominant" console position, second to the Wii everywhere, and possibly third to the Wii/360 in the US. Once a console gains the upper hand, it makes a convincing business case for other studios to support that console more than others - and with the Wii being cheaper, still selling out, and allowing for more innovative games - its definitely in the strongest position (now less than 3m units behind the 360 globally - and more than 3.5m ahead of the PS3, which actually launched first).