I think with the price announcement, Sony has proven they aren't playing around this time. I think they are going to make sure that they will always have some good titles just around the corner, without any droughts. And it looks like they are going to have very good 1st and 3rd party support for the Vita from the start, something Sony had in the PS1 and PS2 days. And an exclusive COD, as well as other FPS franchises, with proper controls may help push some big sales in the US. In Japan, Sony is going to be helped by the momentum from support for their current systems of late.
Also, while a price cut for the 3DS around this holiday season would be a smart move, I think Nintendo is going to try and have at least one holiday at full price. Besides, cutting the price of the 3DS before its even a year old would look like a FUD move. It would give people the impression that Nintendo isn't confident in their HW. If there is a price cut, it would most likely come sometime mid-late 2012, and be ~$50. Which Sony will probably answer with a ~$25 cut of their own just before Holiday 2012, still making it look like the better value, overall. Anyway, this year Vita and 3DS are going toe to toe at the same price. Something that will benefit the Vita, greatly.
This sounds about right, and I hope you're right! Go Vita!