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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo stock continues alarming collapse... 5 year low. Reggie comments.

shuraiya said:

With all the hype surrounding the wii and the great success it found with the casual crowd, Nintendo's stock got greatly overvalued. The share price couldn't possibly be maintained unless Nintendo managed to keep a firm hold on the casual crowd; they have proven that the casuals are too fickle and the entertainment market to unstable for that. Right now the the share price is being revalued. It will continue to be erratic until investors get a better idea of what Nintendo is attempting to accomplish; When that happens, a more reasonable and stable price will be set. One that accounts for the fact that Nintendo is no longer the sole patron of the casual crowd and that they now cater to a portion of the hardcore crowd.

 I personally would not put any money into Nintendo stock right now until I have a better idea of the viability of their vision. I will monitor the situation closely and try to establish what I believe to be a reasonable price point based on information as it becomes available; that information is still much too vague. Buying Nintendo's stock at this time will be more a matter of faith than the technical and fundamentals


Nintendo also has some control over this. Their lack of straight forward answers and layout of their vision at E3 has attributed as suggest. For as exciting as people might be for the Wii U Nintendo did a poor job of positioning it in regard to the PS3/360 and Wii. Focus on the controller was wrong. At least wrong in that they focused so much only on it. They could have kept their high stock price if they had full explained the system, it's power, and how they were going to cater to both the casual market and the normal gamer market. That is something that they absolutely did not do at E3 and that is when the big drop off got noticed.

If Nintendo comes out and layouts a ton of information it could stop the bleeding. For investors they need to be straight forward and detailed too. With the recent interviews taking place I at least think they know that or at the least Iwata is hearing an ear full. However they still are not saying the right things as the stock continues to drop.



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NeoStar9 said:

Nintendo also has some control over this. Their lack of straight forward answers and layout of their vision at E3 has attributed as suggest. For as exciting as people might be for the Wii U Nintendo did a poor job of positioning it in regard to the PS3/360 and Wii. Focus on the controller was wrong. At least wrong in that they focused so much only on it. They could have kept their high stock price if they had full explained the system, it's power, and how they were going to cater to both the casual market and the normal gamer market. That is something that they absolutely did not do at E3 and that is when the big drop off got noticed.

If Nintendo comes out and layouts a ton of information it could stop the bleeding. For investors they need to be straight forward and detailed too. With the recent interviews taking place I at least think they know that or at the least Iwata is hearing an ear full. However they still are not saying the right things as the stock continues to drop.

There is an old saying about the stock market "Buy on rumour and sell on news" ... Reality often gets in the way of optimism, and when an announcement is made that doesn't live up to people's unrealistic expectations they tend to swing from optimism to pessimism.

In the case of the Wii U many people (probably) had the unrealistic belief that Nintendo could design a completely unexpected and revolutionary controller again, while producing a system that had a "generational jump" in visuals, while somehow releasing this system that costs next to nothing in the immediate future with amazing third party support and very low development costs. Nintendo's real announcement of a controller that has a lot of potential in a system that will have as large of a jump in graphics as could be provided while not producing an excessively expensive system or driving development costs to be too high that will release as soon as is realistically possible (12 to 18 months) and has solid third party support has let down a lot of people who had unrealistic expectations.

The pessimism that has shown up is that people are assuming that Sony and Microsoft can both produce this impossible system, while everyone in the world who bought a Wii or Nintendo DS will abandon Nintendo for Smart Phones or other consoles, the economy will collapse making it impossible for a new system to sell, and Japan (with the exception of Sony) will be destroyed by a series of Tsunamis and Nuclear meltdowns.

18 to 24 months from now both the optimistic and pessimistic outlook will seem pretty silly, and it is possible that unforseen events will allow Nintendo to be on track to match or surpass the Wii and DS sales with the Wii U and 3DS.



kowenicki said:
MrT-Tar said:
Just out of interest, does Nintendo stock historically fall whenever they announce a new platform, or at least a new home console?


Reggie says its cyclical...   but hes not right.... not to this extreme anyway, the nintendo share price was always pretty steady before the Wii.

 

Is Reggie perchance the one true analyst god? Ask Pachter, you infidel!!!   



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HappySqurriel said:

There is an old saying about the stock market "Buy on rumour and sell on news" ... Reality often gets in the way of optimism, and when an announcement is made that doesn't live up to people's unrealistic expectations they tend to swing from optimism to pessimism.

In the case of the Wii U many people (probably) had the unrealistic belief that Nintendo could design a completely unexpected and revolutionary controller again, while producing a system that had a "generational jump" in visuals, while somehow releasing this system that costs next to nothing in the immediate future with amazing third party support and very low development costs. Nintendo's real announcement of a controller that has a lot of potential in a system that will have as large of a jump in graphics as could be provided while not producing an excessively expensive system or driving development costs to be too high that will release as soon as is realistically possible (12 to 18 months) and has solid third party support has let down a lot of people who had unrealistic expectations.

The pessimism that has shown up is that people are assuming that Sony and Microsoft can both produce this impossible system, while everyone in the world who bought a Wii or Nintendo DS will abandon Nintendo for Smart Phones or other consoles, the economy will collapse making it impossible for a new system to sell, and Japan (with the exception of Sony) will be destroyed by a series of Tsunamis and Nuclear meltdowns.

18 to 24 months from now both the optimistic and pessimistic outlook will seem pretty silly, and it is possible that unforseen events will allow Nintendo to be on track to match or surpass the Wii and DS sales with the Wii U and 3DS.

WElcome to the stock market, it's a giant cluster**** that only has the consistency of being a giant cluster****



What are you guys looking at, Yahoo says they have a PE of 3.16 and the price per share is down 23.76. I say it is pretty good time to buy Nintendo stocks. EPS of 7 is pretty good as well. What I would do is buy a handful of stock each day it drops. When it starts to go up again then you want to put more of your investment into it. Many people mistakenly buy a stock on the upturn that is really too late. You have to buy at the low point.

Looking at all the years that Yahoo will show. Nintendo had a low point in Feb. of 1997, another low point in March of 1999, another low point in Oct. of 2001, 2002-2004 saw pretty harsh decrease, 2004 we saw a slow recovery, 2006 and 2007 the stock exploded, late 2008 it declined and then sort of leveled out, and now this most current drop. So for those that know gaming history and can explain these events that would be helpful.

If you had bought stock in many major companies in 2008 you would have a very hefty sum of money today. You would also have lost quite a bit in the blue collar companies that folded but the ones who who made it through would have made up for it significantly.



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metalmonstar said:
What are you guys looking at, Yahoo says they have a PE of 3.16 and the price per share is down 23.76. I say it is pretty good time to buy Nintendo stocks. EPS of 7 is pretty good as well. What I would do is buy a handful of stock each day it drops. When it starts to go up again then you want to put more of your investment into it. Many people mistakenly buy a stock on the upturn that is really too late. You have to buy at the low point.

Looking at all the years that Yahoo will show. Nintendo had a low point in Feb. of 1997, another low point in March of 1999, another low point in Oct. of 2001, 2002-2004 saw pretty harsh decrease, 2004 we saw a slow recovery, 2006 and 2007 the stock exploded, late 2008 it declined and then sort of leveled out, and now this most current drop. So for those that know gaming history and can explain these events that would be helpful.

If you had bought stock in many major companies in 2008 you would have a very hefty sum of money today. You would also have lost quite a bit in the blue collar companies that folded but the ones who who made it through would have made up for it significantly.

well yahoo is fucked up.

Nintendo has a current market cap of around 24 billion dollars with trailing earnings of 1 billion$.

That makes a trailing PE of 24...........( and it's not that much different for next 12 months PE as I don't think Nintendo predicted a huge earnings increase).



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Interesting interview. Thanks for the link!

Reggie is being vague most of the time though... I think this is why stocks don't pick up. Investors (and gamers) sense that Nintendo is in a difficult position and is still looking for solutions. For WiiU he seems to bet everything on a "spectacular innovation" that would make casual gamers upgrade from Wii to WiiU, but he overlooks two things :
- Consumers as whole are more price sensitve that content oriented (the hardware lift in the wake of Wii pricecut proves that) so if WiiU is price significantly higher than PS3/360 the launch will fail.
- Casual gamers, unlike hardcore gamer, don't see gaming as an important leisure. Thus they don't necesserily need to upgrade to the next generation (3DS shows that so far)

He remained very evasive on how WiiU can appeal to core gamers, or 3DS for that matters. He makes it like Zelda and Mario alone can rebuild a 150M userbase, it's a bit naive....



Not too surprised to hear this, the Wii U reveal was handled VERY poorly, and the 3DS sales are stagnating, in a market once dominated by Nintendo.



Oh wow, now I feel dumb NTDOY is an OTC listing not the actual Tokyo Exchange stock. Alright so I ran some numbers using Nintendo's 2010 value. Nintendo has 141,669,000 common stocks on the market and I don't believe that has changed. Their net income for 2010 was about 2.5 billion dollars. This gives an Earning per share of 17.35. On their fiscal report they mentioned high and low stock prices per quarter. The high average I got was 309.73 and the low was 240.35. So I got a PE or 13.85-17.85. On the Tokyo Exchange the stock is selling for about $188.11. I can't seem to find this year's projections but I am sure what they end up with will be lower than predicted and R&D cost for the Wii U will cut into net income. I could certainly see the stock continuing to drop. It may be a good time to buy if you think the Wii U and 3DS will come through big. Really the main thing your hoping though is that other investors get back into Nintendo in order to raise the price. The new systems could do great but if the demand for the stock doesn't rise, you aren't making any money.

http://www.tse.or.jp/tseHpFront/HPLCDS0301E.do;jsessionid=0a064f0b30d565e066c5accb4bb9ac108b7d07a47439.e34Sch8Sb3uNe34Rbh0QbxeSahb0.4

http://quote.tse.or.jp/tse/quote.cgi?F=listing%2FEDetail1&MKTN=T&QCODE=7974

I wish I knew more about OTC stock. I almost feel like I would prefer to invest in that especially considering its wild fluctuations in comparison to the Tokyo stock.



95% of gamers don't know they are noobs, the 5% who do won't be noobs for long

Check out my kickstarter project: http://kck.st/15CEuUT

Check out my blog: http://www.metropolisgaming.com

I knew that the 3DS was a mistake. And I'm not surprised investor confidence is hurt after the Wii U unveiling. You can say, "Nintendo always sells at a profit!" all you want but if Nintendo stock goes to shit, certain Nintendo executives are gonna have a lot of explainin' to do to the shareholders. Business is not entirely about profit (and even if we look at profits Nintendo failed to meet their profit targets in the last fiscal year. That doesn't look good to shareholders) .