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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo stock continues alarming collapse... 5 year low. Reggie comments.

It will probably go down till September/october..



 

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Admittedly, the conference was a bit of a mess, in that nobody really knew what was going on (a lot of people kept trying to claim that the Wii U was a Wii controller), but this is a little extreme. The DS is holding up, the 3DS has had a great launch, and even Wii sales are picking up.



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

kowenicki said:
Kantor said:
Admittedly, the conference was a bit of a mess, in that nobody really knew what was going on (a lot of people kept trying to claim that the Wii U was a Wii controller), but this is a little extreme. The DS is holding up, the 3DS has had a great launch, and even Wii sales are picking up.


whats extreme?

A stock price drop of this magnitude.



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

Just out of interest, does Nintendo stock historically fall whenever they announce a new platform, or at least a new home console?




kowenicki said:

There is no doubt that Nintendo stock has taken an absolutle hammering this year, down approx 45% in a year and over 15% since the WiiU announcement, this continues today and as of right now the stock is down 2.3% just today. 

Nintendo total hardware sales are down quite a bit even after launching a new handheld in the 3DS and following the aggressive price cut for the Wii worldwide. 

Is Nintendo a buying opportunity as Reggis says or does the share price have further to fall?

Either way investors and market makers are less than impressed with Nintendo at the moment and they are showing this by dumping the stock in quick time.

Here Reggis talks to WSJ and gives his take on the situation.... He looks pretty nervous I have to say, which is odd, but its an interesting interview.  (Apologies I cant embed - can someone else please?)

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2011/06/17/video-nintendos-president-discusses-stock-drop-new-wiiu/

I'm very tempted to chuck some money at this....

It's still like $200 USD a share, which is what now, 130 Pounds?

The strong Yen is a larger market force that has been conspiring against Nintendo's revenue, and a generational transition is always hard on sales and R&D costs. Given that a generation is around 5 years and we're hitting the five-year-low mid-transition, it's nothing too bad

If or when 3DS picks up and Wii U premiers, we'll see it bounce back



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

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I do think Nintendo is in a very difficult position and stocks are reflecing that.

I really don't think the WiiU or 3DS are going to come close to their predecessors sales and the investors seem to agree. That doesn't mean at all that Nintendo is "doomed" or anything like that since they will still probably have good sales just not anywhere near what the previous gen was for them IMO.



why would stocks FALL when zelda is just released.

i would imagine many woudl be buying for its most likely quick bump and then sell again.

thats what i would have done.



Nintendo is going to miss their previsions next quarter and the stock is going to drop more ( because of 3DS..).
The stock will stop dropping once they start making their numbers and isn't going to climb back to its highest point before a long long time ( if ever).

 

 

Right now I would say the stock is price where it should be and I woudn't expect any huge upswing ( it's going to drop more when they miss their next earnings but eventually it will go back around what it is now).



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

I don't think Nintendo have anything to worry about at the moment bar the rubbish conference with Wii sales seeing a boost (probably not as much a boost as they had hope mind) and with LOZ:OT3D pretty much guranteed to sell the 3DS the prices will be back up quite soon



Looks to me like the Ninty shares got well over-priced and we've had a market correction. It's still well above pre-Wii levels and I can imagine it steadying out close to where it's at now and being on a relatively slow rise over the coming years. Interesting how the 2010/2011 drop has a very similar looking pattern to the 2009 drop.

The important metrics are the P/E ratio and EPS I suspect at the end of 2008 the P/E was ridiculous. Investors/speculators behaving like sheep jumping in to Ninty creating a Ninty bubble, now those sheep are jumping out causing that bubble to burst. Always be wary of sudden rises because they are usually followed by sudden falls

I think it'll be many years before we see end of 2008 prices and probably only after a slow and steady rise. And 2010 peak will probably not be seen again for a while. If you've got some spare cash wait until Aug/Sept before you buy Ninty shares, I suspect that will be about when the shares hit a long term low point and they will steadily climb from there. Expect perhaps a bit of a dip when Wii U launches because I would be very surprised if Wii U does the same as Wii and that could lead to market disappointment. Though equally it might exceed relatively low expectations and so Wii U launch might cause a mini spike.



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