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Forums - Sales Discussion - My End of 2009 Predictions

Avinash_Tyagi on 02 January 2008
Tommo1975 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Tommo1975 said:
I reckon -

Wii - 38 Million as Nintendo will sort out their supply constraints this year - but could this actually harm sales as a product that is sold out everywhere becomes a must have item, whereas one that is freely available is less desirable?
360 - 26 Million
PS3 - 22 Million, (slowly catching up with the 360)

 Who say's it'll be freely availible?  With the games coming out Wii will continue to be in heavy demand and lets not forget the potential for new colors should sales dip


 I reckon we will. From what I understand (and I know someone will correct me if I'm wrong!), the production of the Wii was less than demand during the middle part of the year - at least in the UK, cos I saw many Wii's on the shelves (wish I'd picked one up!). It was only at the end of the year demand outpaced supply again and the backlog of previously unsold Wii's was sold, leading to shortfalls.

Now, with Nintendo upping supply, I would bet we would see the same thing happen this year, and with

greater amouts of unsold Wii's in the supply chain there is a chance we won't see anything like the shortfalls we've seen this year.

Besides, overall I don't believe it's in Nintendo's interest to have potential customers frustrated at not being able to buy a Wii, cos with the 360 and possible (but unlikely) PS3, being at similar prices they could see sales lost to 

a competitor.


 Flaw in your argument, there are more games availible this year for the Wii, this years demand will be stronger than last years



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Parokki on 02 January 2008

My estimates of 2008 are still pretty vague, but I imagine they'll become clearer when we see how the consoles sell in January, and how much the 360's upcomming price drop effects things. So far:

Wii - 45-55 million
360 - 24-30
PS3 - 16-22 million
DS - 八千以上だ!



Avinash_Tyagi on 02 January 2008

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PSP&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=Wii&reg3=------&weeks=115

comparing PS3 and PSP, it seems obvious that PS3 will not get near 20 million barring a large spike in sales



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Munkeh111 on 02 January 2008

As I have said before, I can't imagine the PS3 selling less than this year



alan_iturama on 02 January 2008

End of 2008

Wii 43 mi
Xbox 21 mi
PS3 20 mi



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Avinash_Tyagi on 02 January 2008
Munkeh111 said:
As I have said before, I can't imagine the PS3 selling less than this year

 Well in 2007 it sold less than 8 million, in 2008 it'll probably sell around 8-10 million



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Jandre02 on 02 January 2008

2008 PS3, if it does receive the price drop, will sell between 12-16 million.

The Wii will sell about 15,000,000

The Xbox360, without any Halo3 boost wont selll about 6 million.

GTAIV will sell better on Xbox360, but will significantly boost PS3 sales, along with MGS4 boosts in all regions.

BTW, the PS3 would need to average about 135,000 a week more to reach 360. If it can manage atleast 75,000 more a week average, drop price at the same time as the Xbox360, and all AAA titles dont flop, averaging 135,000 more a week isnt hard



Avinash_Tyagi on 02 January 2008
Jandre02 said:
2008 PS3, if it does receive the price drop, will sell between 12-16 million.

The Wii will sell about 15,000,000

The Xbox360, without any Halo3 boost wont selll about 6 million.

GTAIV will sell better on Xbox360, but will significantly boost PS3 sales, along with MGS4 boosts in all regions.

BTW, the PS3 would need to average about 135,000 a week more to reach 360. If it can manage atleast 75,000 more a week average, drop price at the same time as the Xbox360, and all AAA titles dont flop, averaging 135,000 more a week isnt hard

 lol, sorry your argument failed when you said Wii would sell 15 million and PS3 might sell 16 million, not going to happen

 

PS3 will likely not price drop this year, they are already losing so much money on the PS3 as it is.

Wii selling only 15 million is ridiculous since production has gone up 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Jandre02 on 02 January 2008

Well im predicting demand to fall of course. End of year for the Wii wont be so good IMO. Big titles will diminish the Wii obsession. The Wii would not have sold half as well this holiday season with MGS4, GTA4 released.

Once the Wii loses momentum its as good as done. It will be strictly a 13 year old and below console.

So im saying, by September you will be able to walk in to a store and find loads of Wiis.



azrm2k on 02 January 2008

Jandre02 said:


The Xbox360, without any Halo3 boost wont selll about 6 million.


That right there pretty much destroys any credibility your argument had. You predict only 6 million WW?

First off I think you are overestimating the Halo 3 boost this year. Halo 3 was released on 9/25.

 9/179/2410/01
10/0810/1510/2210/29
X360151,323169,786233,311
218,698206,249185,599180,878
Wii213,782212,127204,964190,202230,787292,411311,074
PS375,27371,95581,992
78,544
158,469
160,940154,934

As you can see WW sales went up for all of 3 weeks and then fell back to normal and kept pace with Wii and PS3 increases. Halo 3 seemed to have a 100-200k WW boost at its launch and i'd be surprised if you could argue that even including the holidays over 2 million 360s moved this year solely because of Halo and that the same boost in sales wouldn't be there next year. Clearly then even without Halo 3 X360 sales shouldn't plummet from 8 million+ to 6 million. Especially considering GTA could give a little boost as well not to mention Microsoft didn't do any massive price drops like Sony so they have room to make aggressive price drops now if they see sales start to drop.