I must be the least conservative person when it comes to the Wii. If the Wii hits 20m by this week then at the current production rate (which is 21.6 million for 12 months) then the Wii would have 41.6m plus i think production will slowly go up and push it to 44m.

Personally, I'm seeing the end of 08 like this:

Wii - 45 mil (increase to 2.2 mil starting April, to 2.5 starting October).

Xbox360 - 23-24 mil.

PS3 - 20-21 mil.

I see the 360 slacking off without a Halo 3-sized game, and just barely able to maintain the momentum set up by the last two years. GTA4 will be big, but it'll also be multi-platform, and I have a feeling that even the exclusive downloads can't stop people from buying PS3s if they've been holding out for the release of GTA4. Some will be swayed, of course, but I expect Sony to gain more from the launch of that game.

That aside, I believe that MS will launch a price cut somewhere between late spring and early summer to prepare for GTA4 and that Sony will be prepared to counter if it's a significant cut ($100 or more). It will probably be a split that puts the arcade pack at $250, the premium at $300 and the elite at $400, thus letting Sony off the hook for a little since they could counter with $50 of their own much easier than $100. In respose, Nintendo starts packing Wii Fit into the NA and EU Wiis and launches a Wii Sports + Wii Fit bundle in JP, thus ensuring they sell out every unit they make next year as well.

While the 360 has enough steam to keep going through this year, the PS3 will actually have a good selection of games that dwarfs what it had this year. Combine this with the shared status of the year's biggest game and the PS3 is well set to take off. If the price budges at all this year, it'll gain momentum on the 360 even if the competitor moves first.

I dont think wii will pass psp lifetime sales this year maybe next year.

It will pass it easily. It is already rapidly catching it and is likely to be overtaken during Q3 2008.

If it does pass the PSP LTD sales in '08 then it will be during the holidays probably Decemeber some time imo.

@freestyler

Wii sales wont forever destroy the competition, so who knows?

It will in 2008 but the PS3 will start catching up in sales in 2009 and probably sometime during that year will sell at the same pace as the Wii. I think the 360 will only get 40m lifetime this gen, no more since sales in PAL regions have dropped alot already.

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