FW -

LT -

Points of Interest

-Uncharted 2 is currently at 4.65million so the fanbase is a lot bigger this time (Drakes Fortune had a way smaller fanbse when U2 launched).

-Multiplayer is said to be a bigger focus this time around, which could help replayability (less trade ins) and word of mouth.

-PS3 could see a price reduction to $199 a couple months before, or right around the time Uncharted 3 is released.

-U3 comes out the same day as Battlefield 3 (mega hype) and sales monster MW3 comes out a week later. U3 could get lost in the shuffle and you know BF3 and MW3 will both have way bigger marketing campaigns.

-Reviewers may be a bit harsher this time since it's the sequel to one of the highest rated games ever.

FW - 1.5m

LT - 7-8m

FW 1.25mil
LT 5mil

increased userbase helps with first week sales, but doesn't really have much to do with lifetime sales. You can buy games that came out before you bought your console, especially a game that will probably be praised as one of the best this gen.

Hmm I won't give a first week prediction but Lifetime sales won't really be much higher than Uncharted 2 for a multitude of reasons.

I'd say right around 5 million Lifetime maybe a bit more at 5.3 - 5.5 on the higher end.

1. PS3 at $199? Not probable... $249 is more reasonable.

2. Uncharted is bigger than Battlefeld but smaller than Modern Warfare

FW: 1.3m
LT: 6.2m

ill say first week 1.2 million
lifetime maybe 5-6 million

Bigger than Battlefield!!?

Jesus, are you serious?

I agree with your prediction, but I think BF3 will sell way more (2 consoles + PC) than U3. 

u2 did 800k first week... fyi

1.7 million FW
6.8 million LT

BF 3 comes out on OCT 25th.