The Wii U is coming in 2012 with graphics possibly on par with the PS3 and X360, in 2012 - 2014 we should see both the Xbox 720 and PS4 out with a bigger graphic leap. So is Nintendo always going to be behind the competition in graphics?

Nintendo will be behind the others in graphics, obviously, as they're launching at least a year in advance. But I think they'll be up-to-date enough to have games multi-developed with the others.

There's two extreme scenarios:

One is that the Wii U will not take off like Nintendo would like and, like the Dreamcast, be overshadowed in a couple of years by the more powerful X1080 and PS4, which could copy the screen controller if it's popular.

The other is that it sells through the roof, like the PS2, with the competition having no hope of catching up and not being so far ahead in power that games can't be multi-developed.

Then there's an "anywhere in the middle" scenario where everyone kinda wins again. My guess is that Nintendo will be a huge success due to their great talent and ability to utilize new hooks successfully, leaving a spot open for one of the other two to be the other "it" console. In other words they'll manage to keep up nicely and, once again, pit Sony and Microsoft directly against each other.

Yes as theyw ill be starting early...and Cafe is only a bit better than PS360.

PS4/720 won't be a "bit" better than PS360.

Dunno about "always"...you just don't know what the future holds. But in the coming 10 years, yes on the handheld and home system front.

WiiU on par with X360PS3? Knowing what average PC is capable of nowadays I severely doubt that from technicall standpoint - at the very least it's likely better in terms of framerate and resolution. From consumer standpoint it's even worse - the graphics as meaningful differentiation factor has lost all sense by now, it's a commodity for what it costs.

may i ask what graphics you are judging by

i don't recall seeing any Wii U games

too early to tell..but if I had to guess the simple answer would be yes
also would be interesting to see if they can catch up on the online aspect as well

It's been their modus operandi for three consoles already to sell past gen hardware with gimmick at current gen prices.

First off, it is already obvious that it will not just be "on par" with the HD consoles; but the extent of the improvement is not really well known yet.

With that said, the amount of processing power required to create a meaningful improvement has been growing steadily in each generation; and to have a similar impact as a 100% increase in processing power had during the Playstation/N64 generation (an impressive but not game changing improvement) would probably require a processing power increase to 4 to 8 times in processing power in the next generation. With this in mind, why would you focus on cutting edge hardware when your customers aren't going to care and the increased costs may discourage them from buying your system?

Some things I want everybody to consider. 

Stop assuming that the Wii U is only on par with the PS360. 

From what we've  been led to the WIi U will use a Power 7 derived cpu and a comparable gpu to not cause a bottleneck. The Power 7 is IBM's top line architecture at the moment, and is significantly better than comparable intel core i7s. That means the cpu is derived off of both modern technology, and depending on how many cores and how much clock speed is cut down the cpu should be anywhere from a few to many times that of the Xbox 360s Xenon for example. This is certainly not considered "on par."

Since the GPU must not bottleneck the CPU expect something comparable to the Radeon R700 series. Also significantly more powerful than anything you can find in the HD twins.

So it's not going to be 'on par' unless you're expecting very unrealistic and expensive advancements for the other next generation consoles if they're released within a year of the WIi U. 

I think it's fair to say that there is a difference between the PS360 and Wii U, and it will be a significant one at that. 

Now that isn't to say that the other consoles won't be more powerful than the Wii U. Chances are very high that will be the case. However; will it  be comparable to that of this generation? Probably not. 

I think the difference will be akin to that between the Dreamcast to Xbox at most, and the PS2 to Xbox at least.

I dont think the graphics will improve much next gen for Sony or MS, afterall 1080p is a massive resolution to work with (1920x1080), and the movie industry seems happy with that as does the gaming world. We wont see 1080p go away for at least another generation or 2 yet. The new direction will be 3DTVs that dont require glasses.