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360 Numbers don't add up!

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Monty said: NPD confirmed the 5.1 million number the other day. In a link I have now posted TWICE they showed 4.5 million in Xbox 360 sales for 2006.
From that page: "December NPD game sales, which will debut formally on January 11th" So wait, they confirmed this? Didn't think so. That number is just some estimate.



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NoIdea said: Monty said: NPD confirmed the 5.1 million number the other day. In a link I have now posted TWICE they showed 4.5 million in Xbox 360 sales for 2006. From that page: "December NPD game sales, which will debut formally on January 11th" So wait, they confirmed this? Didn't think so. That number is just some estimate.
That's a very good point... NPD only said that the 360 will exceed 4.5 million units sold for 2006. Who knows how far it will exceed it? You're perfectly right in theorizing that the total may be much higher, but at least we know the bare minimum is 5.1 million US sales. When actualy figures are released it could be much higher, and I appreciate you pointing that out, NoIdea! And just to be clear, every NPD number that ever existed is an "estimate". However, they're probably the most reliable and you can generally take their estimate to the bank.



Monty said: NoIdea said: Monty said: NPD confirmed the 5.1 million number the other day. In a link I have now posted TWICE they showed 4.5 million in Xbox 360 sales for 2006. From that page: "December NPD game sales, which will debut formally on January 11th" So wait, they confirmed this? Didn't think so. That number is just some estimate. That's a very good point... NPD only said that the 360 will exceed 4.5 million units sold for 2006. Who knows how far it will exceed it? You're perfectly right in theorizing that the total may be much higher, but at least we know the bare minimum is 5.1 million US sales. When actualy figures are released it could be much higher, and I appreciate you pointing that out, NoIdea! And just to be clear, every NPD number that ever existed is an "estimate". However, they're probably the most reliable and you can generally take their estimate to the bank.
And that number isn't an official estimate. Also, it doesn't even say "exceed". God, how can one person (Monty) be so ignorant?



NoIdea said: And that number isn't an official estimate. Also, it doesn't even say "exceed". God, how can one person (Monty) be so ignorant?
Why are you so opposed to the estimates to the point you're questioning my mental abilities? That seems odd. Anyhow, we know (and most here agree) that the number was 4.9 million in the USA as of Dec 25th. It's not that much of a stretch to say another 200k was sold in the last 6 days of 2006 (that was the average). In other words, if the NPD estimate is off, it ain't going to be by much at all... one way or the other. Anyhow, please don't let the NPD upset you so much with their estimates. This is only for fun, and if the 360 exceeds 5.1 million, you really shouldn't let it upset you that much, unless you have stock in Sony.



Ok, a simple excersize. The xbox360 shipped around 10 million by the end of the year, right? In order to have close to a 10 million sold (to users) it should be almost sold out everywhere, right? Sorry, but people see plenty of xbox360 available in stores all the time. If most stores sold about 80% of the xbxo360 they recived (pretty decend number) then the sales are close to what we see on the charts here. Just my 2-cents.



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Monty said: Come on... keep up with the debate here! I've answered this a few times already. Initially we knew the US numbers were 4.9 million in the US through Dec 25th using NPD data. I ESTIMATED an extra 200k for the last week of the year, making the US total 5.1 million. NPD confirmed the 5.1 million number the other day. In a link I have now posted TWICE they showed 4.5 million in Xbox 360 sales for 2006. NPD data shows 610k in sales for 2005. Added together, that equals 5.11 million in the US total since launch. My ESTIMATE was therefore correct. I estimated 5.1 million in the US, and the NPD confirmed that estimate. You're so hung up on the 200k estimate, and I don't understand it... just throw it away if you'd like. NPD says 5.1 million for the US, and that's all that matters now. It doesn't matter that I was right on it, just as long as I can help out with the accuracy of the numbers! And, I appreciate you agreeing with me now. And to clarify, they are off by under 500k in just NA. There is practically an entire world outside of NA. If they are off by this much in the area that is by far the EASIEST to figure, wouldn't that make you wonder about the other areas? And, I'm truly sorry if my examining the stats or quoting NPD data upset you so much. I like to discuss stats, and you folks are fun to discuss them with.
Where did NPD say 5.1 million? Here's what I have: 1) 3.4 million at the end of November (this is 'lifetime' - no 600k sold in '05 - LIFETIME) 2) We have latest 'estimate' of 2 million over November to December 25th (and this is where we stop because NPD doesn't have numbers past this date so neither will vgcharts) - by simply deduction, we know that since 500k were sold in November, 1.5 million were sold in December. 3) That leaves the entire US LIFETIME install base at 4.9 4) 490k (10% Canada) 5) 200k (Mexico - and this is all I'm giving you because they launched some 4 or 5 months later than both Canada and US - and yes, I did research the launch so I concede this number to you) Grand total NA LIFETIME sales = 5.59million VGCharts = 5.26 million Difference = 330k This is your entire argument - 330k. Do you now see how petty you are being? Can't you understand how ridiculous this rant has been? You started this entire thread claiming that there was an install base of 'at least 8 million' in NA and have just been proven to have been a tad bit off - nearly 3 million off. You later tried to imagine there being 7.3 million in the US alone, and my lifetime stats I just gave you for the US again puts your 'estimate' a tad off - nearly 2 million this time. So, just sticking to the US argument, you've gone from claiming 7.3 million all the way down to 5.1 million (which is still wrong, by 200k mind you) and you have the gall to say the numbers on this site are suspicious?!?!?



So, let me get this straight now... most of you are agreeing with me that vgcharts is off by around 400k in North America, but now you're saying that by pointing it out I was "petty" and "ridiculous"? I must admit that this is entertaining, to say the least. I'm curious about a few things, though: First off, at what point should I have mentioned it, if 400k wasn't enough of a difference? Am I not allowed to say anything until it gets to 1 million in NA? Secondly, if it's off by 400k in NA (the easiest to track region), don't you at all think it's possible that it's off in the other areas that are much harder to track? Is it odd that this doesn't concern anybody else, and everybody is swallowing whatever vgcharts tells you? Thirdly, is it not ok to question the stats, and why was I attacked so much for bringing this up, even though I proved the 360 numbers do not add up correctly? Lastly, are you people not interested in making this place more accurate, and better? If this was my site, I would welcome discussions like this, and thank anybody that pointed out any errors. There is a lot of stuff that makes me very curious about this community!



loco said: Ok, a simple excersize. The xbox360 shipped around 10 million by the end of the year, right? In order to have close to a 10 million sold (to users) it should be almost sold out everywhere, right? Sorry, but people see plenty of xbox360 available in stores all the time. If most stores sold about 80% of the xbxo360 they recived (pretty decend number) then the sales are close to what we see on the charts here. Just my 2-cents.
In early Dec (or late Nov), MS announced they were on track to sell "over" 10 million units (you can Google this). We, of course, don't know how far over, and it's highly likely that by "sell", MS meant "sold to retailers" (ie, what we routinely called "shipped"). Without knowing the exact shipped number at this point, we couldn't really draw logical conclusions about the sales from that alone.



Monty, you are really soo laughable. Oh, and Japan is easiest to track. (VGCharts numbers are about 100k too high for that region, BTW)



NoIdea said: Monty, you are really soo laughable. Oh, and Japan is easiest to track. (VGCharts numbers are about 100k too high for that region, BTW)
North America is a continent. Japan is a country. When I say NA is the easiest to track, I would say it is much easier to track than Asia (where Japan in located). If I had said the USA was the easiest to track, your response about Japan would have made some sense, but that's not what I said, so your response leaves me a little confused. It's like if I said that France was the easiest to track, and you responded "no, Sacramento, California is". As for your claim that vgcharts is wrong about Japan, I'd have to refer you to them, but I think you're arguing on my side if you're trying to say that vgcharts has some obvious flaws. So, I'm also confused why you directed that my way?