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360 Numbers don't add up!

Forums - Sales Discussion - 360 Numbers don't add up!

NoIdea said: Are you kidding?
About what? About the 200k? I cited it several times in this thread... it was based off of NPD numbers and avg sold per week in the US. The average was 250k, but I took it down because the 25th isn't a shopping day. In the end, I was right... yet again. I was citing 4.9 million + 200k for the final week, which = 5.1 million in the US. NPD confirmed that the other day. If you have a problem with those figures, take it up with the NPD! As I pointed out above, none of these figures are *mine*. Most of you are arguing with yourselves, NPD, or vgcharts. I'm just enjoying the show! To recap... here's what we know: 5.1 million in US sales (source: NPD) 510K for Canada/Mexico stats (source: everybody here cites 10% as the number for this figure, except me... of course, but I'll go with *yours* for now) Total for NA = 5.61 at the end of 2006 vgcharts total = 5.26 (although it was lower when we started this debate) So, I go back to my original statement... the 360 numbers do not add up. If you don't like it, complain to NPD, to yourselves (for coming up with the 10% number), or vgcharts (for being wrong). Do not kill the messenger!



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NoIdea said: Actually they are figures you totally made up. Only 3.4 million X360's were sold in the US at the end of Novemember. http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4362&Itemid=2 (See I actually provide valid info with links, unlike you) And if you think 1.7 million were sold in December you are absolutely crazy.
Are you sure you've been reading this thread? I posted links, and I'll do it again for you. "Microsoft’s Xbox 360 is on track to reach our 2006 sales estimate of 4.5 million units in the U.S." http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12280 The 360 sold 610K in 2005 to the US per NPD. That makes a total of 5.1 in the US per NPD. Argue with them if you disagree.



Monty said: NoIdea said: Actually they are figures you totally made up. Only 3.4 million X360's were sold in the US at the end of Novemember. http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4362&Itemid=2 (See I actually provide valid info with links, unlike you) And if you think 1.7 million were sold in December you are absolutely crazy. Are you sure you've been reading this thread? I posted links, and I'll do it again for you. "Microsoft’s Xbox 360 is on track to reach our 2006 sales estimate of 4.5 million units in the U.S." http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12280 The 360 sold 610K in 2005 to the US per NPD. That makes a total of 5.1 in the US per NPD. Argue with them if you disagree.
Sales for MS means selling to retailers. This is not what we count here.



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Monty said: Cryoakira said: Main problem is : where does these european figures come from ? I'm french, I'm working in one the biggest french games retailers (Micromania), and we don't have figures for the french market, except what MS gives on the X360 (and I wasen't specifically talking about X360, but all consoles, so the same goes for Sony or Nntendo). In most of european contries, there aren't any real statistics about the real consoles and video games sales. Nothing like NPD or the jap institutes. Nobodies is able to exactly tell the actual numbers of units sold, only the number of units distributed. That's a lot of why I put little faith into sites like this one or nexgenwars. They are highly entertaining, and make for fun debates. However, take them for what they are worth as there is a lot of assumptions made when making out figures like this, and you'll find there is a LOT of play... meaning if you favor one console over another, you can push and pull figures just about any way you want. There are far too many areas of the world that you simply can't find hard stats for. If anybody tell you they know exact figures for these parts of the world, then I wouldn't trust them very far. One thing I enjoy about this site more that some others is that at least they started with a forum and will openly debate you, and allow you to question their methods/figures. That definitely says something, even if they are so very, very, very wrong!
Lol, and I suppose you think you are more correct than this site? Perhaps we are talking to the next Nostradamus right here. Or perhaps a Microsoft insider? Then again not even Microsoft can know exactly how much was sold to consumers, only how much they shipped to retail. The VGCharts numbers are as educated as you will find anywhere on the net. Your disputes have been near useless. You already nocked your impressive estimate of 10 million to 8.7 million. What makes you argue so much for a mere 570k difference? If you're so smart then take the numbers with a pinch of salt and stop complaining.



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ICStats said: Monty said: NoIdea said: Actually they are figures you totally made up. Only 3.4 million X360's were sold in the US at the end of Novemember. http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4362&Itemid=2 (See I actually provide valid info with links, unlike you) And if you think 1.7 million were sold in December you are absolutely crazy. Are you sure you've been reading this thread? I posted links, and I'll do it again for you. "Microsoft’s Xbox 360 is on track to reach our 2006 sales estimate of 4.5 million units in the U.S." http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12280 The 360 sold 610K in 2005 to the US per NPD. That makes a total of 5.1 in the US per NPD. Argue with them if you disagree. Sales for MS means selling to retailers. This is not what we count here.
Who said anything about MS? Those are NPD figures... NPD only counts sales. MS isn't involved in those figures at all. I hate to repeat myself, but sometimes I have to wonder if you guys have any idea what you're talking about here? The fact that you think NPD is somehow MS figures is really confusing to me. That's pretty basic info that I'm citing here.



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ICStats said: Lol, and I suppose you think you are more correct than this site? Perhaps we are talking to the next Nostradamus right here. Or perhaps a Microsoft insider? Then again not even Microsoft can know exactly how much was sold to consumers, only how much they shipped to retail. The VGCharts numbers are as educated as you will find anywhere on the net. Your disputes have been near useless. You already nocked your impressive estimate of 10 million to 8.7 million. What makes you argue so much for a mere 570k difference? If you're so smart then take the numbers with a pinch of salt and stop complaining.
I think that NPD numbers are more right than this site, as I pointed out. Again, these aren't *my* numbers. And for the 1 millionth time, I never said I believe the total to be 8.7, and I NEVER CHANGED MY OPINION. I took YOUR guys's figures to show how it had to be more than what vgcharts is reporting. The 8.7 came when I took your figures to show how even you guys believe it is wrong, but just didn't know it. I still believe that the total is much closer to 10 million than it is to 8 million. I'm only using NA stats as that is easiest to prove. If it is off by half a million in the NA, then how much off is it in other parts of the world where figures are harder to come by? And, I don't think it's fair to tell me that I'm not supposed to put any faith in these numbers! If you're going to make a site and claim it is the most accurate on the net, then dammit... it should be the most accurate on the net, and we should come to expect that.



Monty why do you insist on having the 360 reach 10 million? You dont approach a problem with an answer and then fit data to prove it. You need to accept that these are solid estimates. VGCharts is very transparent and therefore seem credible. Unlike some other nextgenwars type of sites...



Monty said: NoIdea said: Are you kidding? About what? About the 200k? I cited it several times in this thread... it was based off of NPD numbers and avg sold per week in the US. The average was 250k, but I took it down because the 25th isn't a shopping day. In the end, I was right... yet again. I was citing 4.9 million + 200k for the final week, which = 5.1 million in the US. NPD confirmed that the other day. If you have a problem with those figures, take it up with the NPD! As I pointed out above, none of these figures are *mine*. Most of you are arguing with yourselves, NPD, or vgcharts. I'm just enjoying the show! To recap... here's what we know: 5.1 million in US sales (source: NPD) 510K for Canada/Mexico stats (source: everybody here cites 10% as the number for this figure, except me... of course, but I'll go with *yours* for now) Total for NA = 5.61 at the end of 2006 vgcharts total = 5.26 (although it was lower when we started this debate) So, I go back to my original statement... the 360 numbers do not add up. If you don't like it, complain to NPD, to yourselves (for coming up with the 10% number), or vgcharts (for being wrong). Do not kill the messenger!
Again - we're still talking about this 200k... ...can you point me to the EXACT place where NPD confirmed 200k were sold during that week? This is pure speculation on your part and it's just flat out silly. I've directed you MANY times to go here: http://www.vgcharts.org/welcome.php and read this, but you persist with this petty nonsense. You're right - vgcharts is totally unreliable. Their numbers are off by less than 500k, so eveything that's posted on this site is complete crap. You win - now, why not go start your own website and post your own version of where sales currently stand. Here, I'll give you a hand: MS 360 - Ubermillions!!1!1!!!one-eleven!! PS3 - 0 Wii - 0 Feel better?



TalonMan said: Again - we're still talking about this 200k... ...can you point me to the EXACT place where NPD confirmed 200k were sold during that week? This is pure speculation on your part and it's just flat out silly. I've directed you MANY times to go here: http://www.vgcharts.org/welcome.php and read this, but you persist with this petty nonsense. You're right - vgcharts is totally unreliable. Their numbers are off by less than 500k, so eveything that's posted on this site is complete crap. You win - now, why not go start your own website and post your own version of where sales currently stand. Here, I'll give you a hand: MS 360 - Ubermillions!!1!1!!!one-eleven!! PS3 - 0 Wii - 0 Feel better?
Come on... keep up with the debate here! I've answered this a few times already. Initially we knew the US numbers were 4.9 million in the US through Dec 25th using NPD data. I ESTIMATED an extra 200k for the last week of the year, making the US total 5.1 million. NPD confirmed the 5.1 million number the other day. In a link I have now posted TWICE they showed 4.5 million in Xbox 360 sales for 2006. NPD data shows 610k in sales for 2005. Added together, that equals 5.11 million in the US total since launch. My ESTIMATE was therefore correct. I estimated 5.1 million in the US, and the NPD confirmed that estimate. You're so hung up on the 200k estimate, and I don't understand it... just throw it away if you'd like. NPD says 5.1 million for the US, and that's all that matters now. It doesn't matter that I was right on it, just as long as I can help out with the accuracy of the numbers! And, I appreciate you agreeing with me now. And to clarify, they are off by under 500k in just NA. There is practically an entire world outside of NA. If they are off by this much in the area that is by far the EASIEST to figure, wouldn't that make you wonder about the other areas? And, I'm truly sorry if my examining the stats or quoting NPD data upset you so much. I like to discuss stats, and you folks are fun to discuss them with.



Random() said: Monty why do you insist on having the 360 reach 10 million? You dont approach a problem with an answer and then fit data to prove it. You need to accept that these are solid estimates. VGCharts is very transparent and therefore seem credible. Unlike some other nextgenwars type of sites...
Why do I have to accept things at face value? Isn't it ok to question the stats? As for vgcharts being "transparent", I highly disagree. They tell you they get numbers from NPD and Media Create... REALLY!?!?! That's not anything special there, random. The real question is where they get the rest of their data. Data from Europe, Mexico, and other parts of the world are NOT easy to come by. I tell you what.... why don't you ask where they get all their numbers from and see how "transparent" they really are?