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360 Numbers don't add up!

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Well we can continue to pick holes if you want. The 2m Nov - Dec was for NORTH AMERICA, not just USA. It's your 800k figure that is still the problem



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broshnat said: Well we can continue to pick holes if you want. The 2m Nov - Dec was for NORTH AMERICA, not just USA. It's your 800k figure that is still the problem
You're missing the big picture.... you have to believe that ZERO consoles were sold in Mexico and Canada to believe vgcharts number. My point is there were some sold. It doesn't matter the exact number... the fact is if ANY were sold in those two territories, then vgcharts is wrong. You said 400k a few posts back. If that's what you believe than vgcharts is not correct in their end of the year 7.9 number... it's impossible. My original point was that the numbers don't add up. No matter how you look at it, they still don't add up.



Hmmm, well you aren't disputing the Japan / Others numbers but you seem to think the NA figure should be about 1 million higher (6.2m vs 5.2m) to summarise your 'argument'. 2.9 m in the USA sold as of October. Taking 10% for the rest of NA gives 3.2m (as given by this site). Add 2m for Nov / Dec gives 5.2m (also as given). Try it another way. 2.9m sold in USA as of October. 510k November. 3.4m total in USA as of November. Add your 10% for rest of NA and you get 3.75m (as given by this site) at the end of November NA - 550k of which was in November. 2m Nov + Dec NA leaves 1.45m in December. This as a jump from 550k seems a bit high personally so I'd be a little cautious about this number anyway, but however you look at it you get 5.2 million



Monty give it up ...you arent convincing anyone everyone is opposed to your point of view ....rest of NA is 10% or less than USA and thats about it .If you look closely you will see this page has always some sales added to the official NPD data for USA in its NA page ...thats the data for rest of NA .And the added number is 5.2 million in the best of the scenarios possible (providing the especulation of the other day about 2 million for november/december is correct and it doesnt end up in half as the estimations of november ) .



Monty said: Some of you are citing the 8 days worth of sales in Canada (Nov 22nd 2005 - Nov 30th 2005) as proof that Canada sells 10% of the US. However, I really believe that an 8 day period of sales during a very shortage filled launch is hardly conclusive proof of this. However,as I said, if it is 10%, then that is 500k. How many do you people believe that Mexico sold in the last 14 months? Most here say they believe it would be less than Canada, but in the same ballpark. Lets say 300k just for fun, as I highly doubt it could be any lower than that. Granted they dont sell a lot, but over a 14 month time period thats just 21,000 a month. So going with most of YOUR figures, Canada/Mexico sold around 800k. Lets plug that in to what we know: - 2.9 million sold in the US from launch until Oct 06 (source: NPD). - 2 million sold in between Nov 1st and Dec 25th, 06 (source NPD) - 2.87 million all other places in the world, outside NA (source: vgcharts) - 800k for the rest of NA - 200k for the last week of Dec 2006 in the US That is 8.7 million. If you believe the NA total to only be 400k, then youre still above vgcharts at 8.3 million. Keep in mind were not even adding in 2007 yet, and vgcharts was at 7.9 at the end of the year. I think Ive more than proven my point. Unless you believe NA sold ZERO consoles in the last 14 months, there is no way you can believe vgcharts as being accurate. And if you believe that Canada and Mexico sold no consoles in 14 months, there may be no reasoning with you...
So far you've whittled down your original sales calculation from 'nearing 10 million' to 8.7 million - and yet you persist. What is wrong with you??? 1) Nowhere on this site does it say sales numbers are posted 'up to the second' - they are updated as 'valid' data comes in (the most recent of which was the '2 million 360's over November/December). So, right off the bat you can get rid of the 200k you are trying to create in your mind as consoles that were sold from the 25th to the 31st. Additionally - I've already told you that since that particular week was a holiday-shortened week, you can't make assumptions as to how many consoles 'would have', 'could have', or 'should have' sold at that time. So, drop the 200k you keep inventing - it's irrelevant. 2) As has been stated before - there is no proof that Mexico gets their own designated shipment of consoles, but rather, most are likely imported from the US (which would, in fact, count towards the original US totals that were provided). If you would be so kind as to show proof that MS even formerly 'launched' in Mexico, I would appreciate seeing that. Otherwise, that's another 300k stricken from your imaginary numbers. So, we're back at 8.2 million and vgcharts is reporting 8.1 million and change - what's your problem??? Where is it written on this site that the numbers change everytime a cash register rings? Oh yeah - you must have visited that other site with the 'real time' sales counter. :| Maybe it would help if you just looked at the numbers as 'Current through 12/25' - would that help you? I mean - a 2 week lag is pretty darn good, don't you think??? Sheesh...



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j91137125 said: ICStats said: We don't have so much proof but here is one example of Canada selling less than 10% of US: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20051214/xbox_sales_051214/20051214?hub=Entertainment "32,100 consoles sold in Canada in November and another 325,900 south of the border, NPD reports" This is my first post.. and i've read this entire series of posts on this subject.. But that link shows an article dated December 14th of '05. I don't know if i know what i'm talking about, and most likely i may just be ignorant of the actual point being made, so i don't know if this post makes any difference.. and there's a 90% chance that i don't even know what the hell i'm talking about, but just thought i'd interject and point out a potentially redundant observation.. but one thing, that link shows that 32,100 in Canada, and 325,900 in Mexico were sold in November of '05 alone.. so that equals 358,000 sold in November '05 alone.. so i dont' see why 1.14 million consols couldn't have been sold in the past 12 months to equal Monty's 1.5 million consols sold.. but also, once again, i honestly might just be completely oblivious to what's going on, or i might not have the facts straight either. But thought i'd contribute to the convo..
No no no, this is a Canadian article so "south of the border" means USA. It is not 325k in Mexico. NPD doesn't measure Mexico. In fact X360 wasn't even launched in Mexico until February 2, 2006..



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broshnat said: Hmmm, well you aren't disputing the Japan / Others numbers but you seem to think the NA figure should be about 1 million higher (6.2m vs 5.2m) to summarise your 'argument'. 2.9 m in the USA sold as of October. Taking 10% for the rest of NA gives 3.2m (as given by this site). Add 2m for Nov / Dec gives 5.2m (also as given). Try it another way. 2.9m sold in USA as of October. 510k November. 3.4m total in USA as of November. Add your 10% for rest of NA and you get 3.75m (as given by this site) at the end of November NA - 550k of which was in November. 2m Nov + Dec NA leaves 1.45m in December. This as a jump from 550k seems a bit high personally so I'd be a little cautious about this number anyway, but however you look at it you get 5.2 million
It's not that I don't disagree with the other numbers outside of NA, it's just that I'm trying to simplify the debate into the easiest to prove area to show that numbers presented here are obviously way lower than they are supposed to be. The crux of this argument is best proven by showing that vgcharts is not adding in a single unit for Canada and Mexico. Let's use figures that we have for just the US: "Microsoft’s Xbox 360 is on track to reach our 2006 sales estimate of 4.5 million units in the U.S." http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12280 The 360 sold 610K in 2005 to the US. That's 5.1 million in US sales alone. What I am asking is why here at vgcharts is adding in virtually ZERO consoles for Canada and Mexico. Even if merely 400K units were sold in both territories in 14 months, then that would still place vgcharts numbers for "the Americas" at being well off. I still firmly believe that the 360 is over 9 million WW, but for the sake of this debate I'm trying to go VERY conservative in every estimate, and trying to narrow it down to just NA to show how the numbers do not fit at all. I personally believe that vgcharts is misrepresenting the numbers that are much harder to come by (such as Canada and Mexico). Perhaps it is an honest mistake, but it still seems odd to me that this site is so far under most expert's estimates.



I beg to differ, vgcharts is counting over 300,000 for Canada and Mexico. Sales in US through October were 2.9 million. Sales in US through November were 3.4 million. Sales in US through December were 4.9 million we speculate. VGcharts shows 5.26m which leaves 360,000 accounted for Canada & Mexico



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So far you've whittled down your original sales calculation from 'nearing 10 million' to 8.7 million - and yet you persist. What is wrong with you??? 1) Nowhere on this site does it say sales numbers are posted 'up to the second' - they are updated as 'valid' data comes in (the most recent of which was the '2 million 360's over November/December). So, right off the bat you can get rid of the 200k you are trying to create in your mind as consoles that were sold from the 25th to the 31st. Additionally - I've already told you that since that particular week was a holiday-shortened week, you can't make assumptions as to how many consoles 'would have', 'could have', or 'should have' sold at that time. So, drop the 200k you keep inventing - it's irrelevant. 2) As has been stated before - there is no proof that Mexico gets their own designated shipment of consoles, but rather, most are likely imported from the US (which would, in fact, count towards the original US totals that were provided). If you would be so kind as to show proof that MS even formerly 'launched' in Mexico, I would appreciate seeing that. Otherwise, that's another 300k stricken from your imaginary numbers. So, we're back at 8.2 million and vgcharts is reporting 8.1 million and change - what's your problem??? Where is it written on this site that the numbers change everytime a cash register rings? Oh yeah - you must have visited that other site with the 'real time' sales counter. :| Maybe it would help if you just looked at the numbers as 'Current through 12/25' - would that help you? I mean - a 2 week lag is pretty darn good, don't you think??? Sheesh...
First, I still believe the number to be closer to 10 million, then 8 million. As I outlined in the post above I'm giving in to nearly every conservative number you guys throw my way just to show how off these stats are. Secondly, I like your excuse that the site is way off simply because it's out of date. So, these numbers could be from November. Hmmmm.... that would make more sense to me! Thirdly, you really don't believe that MS didn't launch in Mexico, and you believe that MS ships no consoles to Mexico????!??!??! It's times like these I wonder why I am even bothering to debate some of you. Clearly a few of you are not playing with a full deck here. Anyhow, MS did launch in Mexico. I'd point it out for you, but as has been the pattern here, every time I prove you guys wrong you jump somewhere else and pretend you never were arguing that point (like the NPD numbers include Canada and Mexico argument). If you'll use Google on the Mexico launch issue, you'll figure it out yourself and I won't have to embarrass you further.



Monty said: Some of you are citing the 8 days worth of sales in Canada (Nov 22nd 2005 - Nov 30th 2005) as proof that Canada sells 10% of the US. However, I really believe that an 8 day period of sales during a very shortage filled launch is hardly conclusive proof of this. However,as I said, if it is 10%, then that is 500k. How many do you people believe that Mexico sold in the last 14 months? Most here say they believe it would be less than Canada, but in the same ballpark. Lets say 300k just for fun, as I highly doubt it could be any lower than that. Granted they dont sell a lot, but over a 14 month time period thats just 21,000 a month. So going with most of YOUR figures, Canada/Mexico sold around 800k. Lets plug that in to what we know: - 2.9 million sold in the US from launch until Oct 06 (source: NPD). - 2 million sold in between Nov 1st and Dec 25th, 06 (source NPD) - 2.87 million all other places in the world, outside NA (source: vgcharts) - 800k for the rest of NA - 200k for the last week of Dec 2006 in the US That is 8.7 million. If you believe the NA total to only be 400k, then youre still above vgcharts at 8.3 million. Keep in mind were not even adding in 2007 yet, and vgcharts was at 7.9 at the end of the year. I think Ive more than proven my point. Unless you believe NA sold ZERO consoles in the last 14 months, there is no way you can believe vgcharts as being accurate. And if you believe that Canada and Mexico sold no consoles in 14 months, there may be no reasoning with you...
Funny you think you proved your point after dropping your estimate from 10 million to 8.7 million.



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