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360 Numbers don't add up!

Forums - Sales Discussion - 360 Numbers don't add up!

Monty said: Canada and Mexico have a population of just under 150 million. 50% of the US. The US and Canada aren't the only countries in NA... learn your geography! 300k Xbox 360's were sold in Canada and Mexico in Nov and Dec 05. How many do you think were sold in the rest of the 12 months? Zero? Even if it was merely 1 million Xbox 360's sold in these parts, that still puts the 360 at 9 million, and I'm lowballing all the figures. Time and time again I've proven my points, given facts, backed up stuff with links and jumped through every hoop you asked. I've given every benefit, taken every lowball figure and I still can show 9 million minimum. You guys have proven nothing, shown nothing, backed up nothing! Show me where Canada and Mexico sold only 300k for the entire 14 month time period... or show me where they only account for 10% of the NA total. You can't, because it isn't true.
I'd like for you to show me where you are coming up with this 300k initially sold in Canada and Mexico in the first place. This link here - http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20051214/xbox_sales_051214/20051214?hub=Entertainment it says they only sold 32k in Canada in November '05 - are you suggesting that they somehow sold another 250k consoles there during their hardware shortages?!?!? Or - perhaps you believe the people in Mexico somehow made up that difference??? I really do think you're in denial...



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Im from Mexico Monty, I don't belive that the xbox360 could have sold that many on Mexican retailers. Just look at the price http://www.sanborns.com.mx/sanborns/product.asp?sku=7501109760046&dept_id=16&subdept_id=160102 5,490 pesos is a little more than $500 USD. Not only the average Mexica have less money but we also have to pay more, and we have the option of buying it from importers in Mercadolibre (our Ebay) for $50 less including shipping, those buy the console at the USA.



I'm having trouble believing that nobody can use Google around here. It's really simple. Anyhow... "With the Microsoft Earnings Announcement, Microsoft has claimed to have sold 900,000 Xbox 360 systems from November 22nd to December 31st in North America." http://www.xbox365.com/news.cgi?id=GGPLPuPuPu01261653 MS reported that they sold 900k in NA in 2005. NPD reported that about 600k of those were from US. Using simple math, that would leave us to the conclusion that 300k of those were from other parts outside the US. However, I can't wait for somebody to tell me that those 300k were simply "shipped", and that 33% of all Xbox 360's made in 2005 were sitting on store shelves on Christmas 2005. Yeahhhh.... sure. Tell anybody who was looking for a 360 at the end of 2005 that 33% of all of them made were just lying around somewhere and see what they tell you. Canada and Mexico are not as small of a market as you people want to make them, and I'm 100% positive they tally more than 10% of the US total. I'd put the figure closer to 20%... however, your points are well taken, and nobody (myself included) has produced any proof of their claim in this area (other than anecdotal evidence). So, I'll do a little research and see if I can come up with an exact figure, and if somebody else can do the same, please chime in any moment. Until then, I believe here's where we stand... - 2.9 million sold in the US from launch until Oct 06 (source: NPD). - 2 million sold in between Nov 1st and Dec 25th, 06 (source NPD) - 2.87 million all other places in the world, outside NA (source: vgcharts) Total: 7.7 million Unknowns: - North America total (Mexico and Canada) for the last 14 months. - North America total for Dec 25th to Dec 31st 06. (at rate of 2 million in 8 weeks, that would be another 200k-250k approx for that last week) - Accuracy of vgcharts and/or NPD figures What I think: - I believe the NA total to be at least 20% of the US total (approx 5 million)... 1 million - I believe the total for NA's last week of 2006 to be in the neighborhood of 200k (lowballing again) - I believe that vgcharts is HIGHLY biased toward Nintendo and would not doubt their oversees numbers to be wrong, and I even question the accuracy of NPD as they do not include totals from the #1 console seller in the US - Wal Mart. However, I'll accept their stats for the sake of this argument. That leaves the total I believe to be at about 9 million. If you believe the Canada and Mexico totals 10% of the US, then you believe the total is around 8.5 million. The only way you can believe vgcharts' number is if you think Canada Mexico virtually sold no Xbox 360's at all. I'd like to point out once again, that I think I'm fighting an incredibly fair fight and using a lot of give and take, but getting none in return. It's interesting how many of you suddenly are pointing out sources showing that NPD figures do not show Canada now, but just a day ago I was getting beat up right and left saying I was full of crap for suggesting that. All I'm getting is "take", with no "give". I'm also point by point backing up my stats and admitting when I'm wrong... which does happen. And again, I'd like to say that when the final tallies are made, I'll gladly take my lumps if I'm wrong (I won't run and hide). All I ask is to do the same when we get some confirmation of total sold. Fair enough, eh?



Monty said: You guys are right... I did mix up the first set of numbers in the 3.2 million. I used older NPD stats, the newer ones that I posted were recently readjusted by NPD. Anyhow, I have no problem admitting when I was wrong, but apparently nobody here can do the same. You all were dead wrong about NPD being all of NA - or a combination of US and Canada. They are US only, as I proved. Anyhow, revisiting my initial numbers, with the correction to 2.9 million... - NPD number of 2.9million from Nov 05-Oct 06 (US only) - The NPD number of 2 million from Nov 1st to Dec 25th (assuming it is NA) - My estimate of 1.5 million for the rest of NA from Nov 05 to Oct 06 - vgcharts estimate of the rest of the world from Nov 05 to Dec 06 of 2.76 million We've narrowed down the only number in contention is the rest of NA... Canada and Mexico for 12 months (Nov 05-Oct 06). A lot of you are trying to say that 12 months of Canada and Mexico would only be 300k... that's simply crap. We know for certain that they sold nearly 300k to both territories in 2005. MS released data showing they sold 900k in NA, and we can use the NPD data to filter out what was from the US on Nov 05 and Dec 05, to find that nearly 300k sold in Canada and Mexico those two months. I'd say it's pretty conservative to say that Canada and Mexico sold another 1 million on top of that for the entire year of 2006. Again, all my numbers are extremely lowballing everything, and giving you guys every benefit of the doubt. I've proven you wrong on the NA, yet you now want to pretend Canada and Mexico sales are meaningless to the point of being ridiculous. Still, giving every benefit to you people, the numbers still add up to over 9 million!
Again it's your estimate for Canada+Mexico that doesn't make much sense. 1.5 million is pure speculation on your part. We don't have so much proof but here is one example of Canada selling less than 10% of US: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20051214/xbox_sales_051214/20051214?hub=Entertainment "32,100 consoles sold in Canada in November and another 325,900 south of the border, NPD reports" That makes Canada 9.8% of US sales during that month. And considering Canada population is under 10% than US expecting much more would be ridiculous. If you don't have a link to back up your 1.5 million estimate it's not worth anything here. About the "900,000 consoles in North America" statement, I guess someone lied there considering we have NPD numbers adding up to only 610,000 in US and about 60,000 in Canada for that period. Those numbers are off by 230,000./



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ICStats said: We don't have so much proof but here is one example of Canada selling less than 10% of US: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20051214/xbox_sales_051214/20051214?hub=Entertainment "32,100 consoles sold in Canada in November and another 325,900 south of the border, NPD reports"
This is my first post.. and i've read this entire series of posts on this subject.. But that link shows an article dated December 14th of '05. I don't know if i know what i'm talking about, and most likely i may just be ignorant of the actual point being made, so i don't know if this post makes any difference.. and there's a 90% chance that i don't even know what the hell i'm talking about, but just thought i'd interject and point out a potentially redundant observation.. but one thing, that link shows that 32,100 in Canada, and 325,900 in Mexico were sold in November of '05 alone.. so that equals 358,000 sold in November '05 alone.. so i dont' see why 1.14 million consols couldn't have been sold in the past 12 months to equal Monty's 1.5 million consols sold.. but also, once again, i honestly might just be completely oblivious to what's going on, or i might not have the facts straight either. But thought i'd contribute to the convo..



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Well you're reasoning is ok Monty but you're making a number of key false assumptions 1. Canada / Mexico etc account for ~10% at best of total NA sales - no more than 400,000 Xbox 360s have been sold in these regions. 2. Microsoft shipped / production figures =/= sold figures. Sure the system was selling out at launch but the 900,000 figure seems to be somewhat inflated. You certainly can't use this discrepancy - with such small numbers over a short and in some ways non-comperable time period to extrapolate forward to pull 1.5m out of the air when all other evidence and logic shows this is much much too high. You always have to be careful when comparing data from different sources. 3. VG Charts has no bias towards any console, it is as neutral and factual a source as exists anywhere.



ICStats said: About the "900,000 consoles in North America" statement, I guess someone lied there considering we have NPD numbers adding up to only 610,000 in US and about 60,000 in Canada for that period. Those numbers are off by 230,000./
Maybe nobody lied. MS sold 900k to retailers. Retailers sold 670k to users. @j91137125 "South of the frontier" is the US (canadian frontier), not Mexico ;)



When that article states '325,900 were sold south of the border', they are referring to the US (remember, this is a Canadian article). There is no way in hell that 325,900 consoles were sold in Mexico during November - I'd be shocked if Mexico even came close to matching the 32k that were sold in Canada... ...and as has already been mentioned, 32k is roughly 10% of 325k, which is consistent with the Canadian sell-through rate. So, there is more proof leaning towards the idea that if 5million were sold in the US, at most 500k was sold in Canada, rather than the idea of some artificial number of 1.5million consoles as was suggested by Monty.



The reason why you aren't getting the 'fair shake' you feel you deserve, is because you keep using inflated speculation as your argument - speculation that has no basis other than your own personal feelings. Here are two examples: 1) You believe 'other' NA sales equal 20% of US sales - it's already been shown to you that during the initial launch, only 10% actually sold (325k in NA - 32k in Canada) - you keep sticking to what you want to believe 2) Now you want to believe that another 200k were sold between the 25th and 31st because the 360 had been selling at a rate of about 200k a week beforehand. Well, I say, the 25th was Christmas and I don't know where you live, but where I'm from, EVERYTHING is closed. The 31st was a Sunday (and also a holiday) and again, where I'm from, EVERYTHING was closed or was closing early. So, now were going to get into a daily sell-through rate, right??? Nowhere on this site does it say these numbers are accurate to the very last console sold on the very last day of the year - but I'm willing to bet they are pretty damn close to the truth. Much closer than the numbers you keep trying to throw around...



Some of you are citing the 8 days worth of sales in Canada (Nov 22nd 2005 - Nov 30th 2005) as proof that Canada sells 10% of the US. However, I really believe that an 8 day period of sales during a very shortage filled launch is hardly conclusive proof of this. However,as I said, if it is 10%, then that is 500k. How many do you people believe that Mexico sold in the last 14 months? Most here say they believe it would be less than Canada, but in the same ballpark. Lets say 300k just for fun, as I highly doubt it could be any lower than that. Granted they dont sell a lot, but over a 14 month time period thats just 21,000 a month. So going with most of YOUR figures, Canada/Mexico sold around 800k. Lets plug that in to what we know: - 2.9 million sold in the US from launch until Oct 06 (source: NPD). - 2 million sold in between Nov 1st and Dec 25th, 06 (source NPD) - 2.87 million all other places in the world, outside NA (source: vgcharts) - 800k for the rest of NA - 200k for the last week of Dec 2006 in the US That is 8.7 million. If you believe the NA total to only be 400k, then youre still above vgcharts at 8.3 million. Keep in mind were not even adding in 2007 yet, and vgcharts was at 7.9 at the end of the year. I think Ive more than proven my point. Unless you believe NA sold ZERO consoles in the last 14 months, there is no way you can believe vgcharts as being accurate. And if you believe that Canada and Mexico sold no consoles in 14 months, there may be no reasoning with you...