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360 Numbers don't add up!

Forums - Sales Discussion - 360 Numbers don't add up!

Wow... No, no, and no!! You people have no clue about what you are debating. NPD numbers as we are typically debating here DO NOT INCLUDE CANADA!!!!! NPD does figure out Canada numbers, but those are separate. They have an NPD Canada division as well as the standard NPD division. One of the biggest misconceptions with NPD data is that it is more than the U.S. It does not! Here is the US numbers for the 360 month by month Nov/2005 330,000 Dec/2005 280,000 Jan/2006 250,000 Feb/2006 160,000 Mar/2006 190,000 Apr/2006 300,000 May/2006 220,000 Jun/2006 280,000 Jul/2006 210,000 Aug/2006 200,000 Sep/2006 260,000 Oct/2006 220,000 Nov/2006 510,000 http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=11067 Add those up and you get 3.410 million units sold. Now... do yourself a favor and look at how much vgcharts is reporting for "the Americas"... it is 5.26 million. Do you believe that vgcharts is estimating 1.8 million 360's were sold in the US in December??? Because if you believe NPD stats include Canada, you have to believe that, or that vgcharts is messed up. The fact is that NPD stats as we typically get are US only. Trust me when I say I know what I'm talking about on this issue! NPD reports Canada and US numbers separately, but the US numbers are FAR more easy to come by, and generally the ones that the press seeks out. What I love about this is that all of your arguments right now are hinging on whether NPD data includes all of NA... which means when I destroy that argument, you guys will have nothing left to hang on. Just for fun, I'll give you guys a little more rope and let you hang yourselves, but anybody who can use Google will be able to find the answer to the Canada and US NPD data issue, and what the above numbers reflect. If you'd like to continue, I'll definitely let you for a bit... However, I'd really suggest researching the issue before you speak too much more!



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Ah, heck...I felt like being nice and did the Google work for you folks: "NPD tracks sales based on data from the majority of U.S. retailers. The company doesn't receive data from some, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, and estimates to make up for the missing information." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRbhBQjT1Bxs&refer=home "NOVEMBER US CONSOLE SALES.... That same month of November, Microsoft sold 511,300 of its Xbox 360 consoles in the US. Of course, the Wii and PlayStation 3 weren't released until the middle of November (November 17 for the PS3 and November 19 for the Wii)." http://xbox360.qj.net/November-US-console-sales-report-from-NPD-and-AFP/pg/49/aid/75623 "NPD Group released their U.S. videogame sales figures. Software came in at $804 million, up 15% over last year. Hardware came in at $771 million, up 69% over last year, with the new launches of the PS3 and Nintendo Wii." http://www.firstadopter.com/fa/archives/001837.html Would you like me to go on?????



Monty said: Wow... No, no, and no!! You people have no clue about what you are debating. NPD numbers as we are typically debating here DO NOT INCLUDE CANADA!!!!! ... Here is the US numbers for the 360 month by month Nov/2005 330,000 Dec/2005 280,000 Jan/2006 250,000 Feb/2006 160,000 Mar/2006 190,000 Apr/2006 300,000 May/2006 220,000 Jun/2006 280,000 Jul/2006 210,000 Aug/2006 20s0,000 Sep/2006 260,000 Oct/2006 220,000 Nov/2006 510,000 http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=11067 Add those up and you get 3.410 million units sold. ... However, I'd really suggest researching the issue before you speak too much more!
Now do your self a favor and go back and look at the numbers you were adding up. 3.41- .51(nov 06)=2.9 you were using 3.2 million were did that extra 300,000 come from?????????? Hmm... it's canada's and mexico's numbers ~10% of the US numbers. But you want us to add 1.5 million more just to cushion the numbers?? BTW all the numbers from all three will be off by the same percentage because of your missing numbers. :rollseyes: It look like you may need to spend more time in the classroom.



Monty said: Here is the US numbers for the 360 month by month Nov/2005 330,000 Dec/2005 280,000 Jan/2006 250,000 Feb/2006 160,000 Mar/2006 190,000 Apr/2006 300,000 May/2006 220,000 Jun/2006 280,000 Jul/2006 210,000 Aug/2006 20s0,000 Sep/2006 260,000 Oct/2006 220,000 Nov/2006 510,000 http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=11067 Add those up and you get 3.410 million units sold.
Exactly, 3.41 million through November which leaves 2.9 through October. I don't dispute those numbers are for US only like you said. Everyone is using October numbers + 2 million for Nov+Dec for their estimates.
Monty said: Ah, heck...I felt like being nice and did the Google work for you folks: "NPD tracks sales based on data from the majority of U.S. retailers. The company doesn't receive data from some, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, and estimates to make up for the missing information." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRbhBQjT1Bxs&refer=home "NOVEMBER US CONSOLE SALES.... That same month of November, Microsoft sold 511,300 of its Xbox 360 consoles in the US. Of course, the Wii and PlayStation 3 weren't released until the middle of November (November 17 for the PS3 and November 19 for the Wii)." http://xbox360.qj.net/November-US-console-sales-report-from-NPD-and-AFP/pg/49/aid/75623 "NPD Group released their U.S. videogame sales figures. Software came in at $804 million, up 15% over last year. Hardware came in at $771 million, up 69% over last year, with the new launches of the PS3 and Nintendo Wii." http://www.firstadopter.com/fa/archives/001837.html Would you like me to go on?????
Sounds like you are just proving yourself wrong there... Do you agree that it's 2.9 million Xbox 360s sold in US through end of October? Do you agree about 2 million sold in November+December (although this is pure speculation from CNBC, NPD announced those numbers didn't come from them)? So that puts 360 at about 4.9 million in US, 0.3 million in Japan, 2.3 million in Europe, total 7.5 + whatever we think Canada & Mexico is. Based on population, Canada is 10% of US and Mexico most people can't afford a 360. We get pretty close to 7.9 million. What we are all wondering is where did you pull out 1.5 million consoles in Canada+Mexico? Where's the source?



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You guys are right... I did mix up the first set of numbers in the 3.2 million. I used older NPD stats, the newer ones that I posted were recently readjusted by NPD. Anyhow, I have no problem admitting when I was wrong, but apparently nobody here can do the same. You all were dead wrong about NPD being all of NA - or a combination of US and Canada. They are US only, as I proved. Anyhow, revisiting my initial numbers, with the correction to 2.9 million... - NPD number of 2.9million from Nov 05-Oct 06 (US only) - The NPD number of 2 million from Nov 1st to Dec 25th (assuming it is NA) - My estimate of 1.5 million for the rest of NA from Nov 05 to Oct 06 - vgcharts estimate of the rest of the world from Nov 05 to Dec 06 of 2.76 million We've narrowed down the only number in contention is the rest of NA... Canada and Mexico for 12 months (Nov 05-Oct 06). A lot of you are trying to say that 12 months of Canada and Mexico would only be 300k... that's simply crap. We know for certain that they sold nearly 300k to both territories in 2005. MS released data showing they sold 900k in NA, and we can use the NPD data to filter out what was from the US on Nov 05 and Dec 05, to find that nearly 300k sold in Canada and Mexico those two months. I'd say it's pretty conservative to say that Canada and Mexico sold another 1 million on top of that for the entire year of 2006. Again, all my numbers are extremely lowballing everything, and giving you guys every benefit of the doubt. I've proven you wrong on the NA, yet you now want to pretend Canada and Mexico sales are meaningless to the point of being ridiculous. Still, giving every benefit to you people, the numbers still add up to over 9 million!



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Canada has some 30 million people and a market not even 10% of the USA ...and most consoles in Mexico are imported directly from USA .Like it or not but you finally have seen the truth .....5,2 million for all NA is taking in count the 2 million in november/december ....and providing those numbers dont shrink as the estimates did in november . Well it doesnt matter too much ,you have done a good job of research and finally seen the truth even if you dont want to swallow it in all its magnitude .



Canada and Mexico have a population of just under 150 million. 50% of the US. The US and Canada aren't the only countries in NA... learn your geography! 300k Xbox 360's were sold in Canada and Mexico in Nov and Dec 05. How many do you think were sold in the rest of the 12 months? Zero? Even if it was merely 1 million Xbox 360's sold in these parts, that still puts the 360 at 9 million, and I'm lowballing all the figures. Time and time again I've proven my points, given facts, backed up stuff with links and jumped through every hoop you asked. I've given every benefit, taken every lowball figure and I still can show 9 million minimum. You guys have proven nothing, shown nothing, backed up nothing! Show me where Canada and Mexico sold only 300k for the entire 14 month time period... or show me where they only account for 10% of the NA total. You can't, because it isn't true.



Once again, I'd also like to point out that vgcharts itself is estimating that Canada and Mexico has sold 1 million (difference between NPD US numbers and their total). You guys can't have your cake and eat it too... if you believe that Canada and Mexico only sold 300k in 14 months, then you believe vgcharts is full of crap. Perhaps we are on the same page????



You are making your numbers up Monty ...do again the researchs please .The amount of consoles sold in Canada and Mexico cant be the ones you are saying .The Mexico market is very very small despite the number of people that live in the country.Besides ,90% of the consoles there are simply USA consoles imported or passed thorough the frontier .Canada has a market comparable to the USA but 10-12 times smaller according to their population .Your wishful thinking is clouding your perception .This page for example adds each month the NA data to present it toghether ...the 3,78 million was for all NA (3,4 for USA and 0,38 for Canada and Mexico as they are 10%) as for 30 november . When you look at the big numbers of the PS2 ,PS1 ,Xbox or Cube if you add USA ,Japan and Europe you have always 95% of the final numbers ..the rest of the world doesnt matter too much in this industry .Yes Canada can have some 200 000 consoles sold ,Australia some 100 000 ...but in the big numbers they dont count too much .



Monty said: Once again, I'd also like to point out that vgcharts itself is estimating that Canada and Mexico has sold 1 million (difference between NPD US numbers and their total). You guys can't have your cake and eat it too... if you believe that Canada and Mexico only sold 300k in 14 months, then you believe vgcharts is full of crap. Perhaps we are on the same page????
2.9 million (nov05-oct06)+2 million = 4.9 million 5.26 vgcharts - 4.9 npd = 360,000 for canada and Mexico. Where is this 1 million you are talking about? According to NPD number sales numbers in NA(US) have stayed constant a little lower than launch until xmas. So we can say that Canada has stayed constant through the year until you give us Canada NPD numbers. 12*30,000=360,000 not 1.5 million. For them to sell 1.5 million Canada's sells numbers would have to have jumped up from initial launch percentage. No details on Mexico cause they did not launch until Feb06. And I can't find them will still keep looking though. How did you get 300k for the first two months? Was it the 900,000 shipped or ready to ship to NA that Microsoft used? Shipped does not equal sold. You keep saying your low balling your numbers but everywhere I look they are inflated.