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360 Numbers don't add up!

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I've often wondered how the numbers are achieved for any console, including the 360. Perhaps you should keep a history of when console numbers are updated, the amount they are updated by, and the source for the information. That would alleviate questions in the minds of many. The numbers for the 360 do seem lower than what I've been following in NPD data. And the argument of shipped vs sold (mentioned earlier), I'm not going to get into that one, however, from what I understand, Sony's NPD numbers for the PS3 included "shipped" or consoles in warehouses. So it would appear Microsoft is not alone in that respect. And speaking of not wanting to inflate the Microsoft number early, didn't you guys put up 1.2 million PS3 sold like a week or so ago? This occured before the end of December of before the [early] NPD report this morning. How did you know early? Sorry for so many questions, but with the 360 numbers not adding up, I just came up with a lot.



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It's very simple really. We have numbers through October in NA totalling 3.20 million. Through November 3.77 million. These cume from NPD. NPD by the way counts estimates for Walmart & Sams Club - look it up. We have Japan with 0.27 million through December 23rd. These come from Famitsu and Metacreate. We have some news of 2 million 360s sold during November/December period. In NA this puts us around 3.2 + 2.0 = 5.2 million sold In Japan about 0.3 million sold counting an estimate for last week of December. In in the rest of the world about 45% of NA sales (from Microsoft's historical data) gives us 2.34 million sold. Total worldwide 5.2 + 0.3 + 2.34 = 7.84 million. I would have to give it some margin for error so being quite generous 10% margin gives between 7 and 8.6 million worldwide.



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I think it's quite simple to get 7.9 million really.



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Sorry, I am re-starting this thread because for some reason I could not read my replies to the original. There's something in a post on that thread that is breaking the forum.. First a myth to clear up, NPD adds in an estimate for Walmart and other stores which they don't collect hard sales numbers from. You can find this information in this document Understanding NPD's Point of Sale Data http://www.adobe.com/macromedia/ir/macr/whitepapers/npd_pos.pdf Second I'll summarize the info we have. NPD sales in NA through end of October were 3.2 million. Early estimates of sales in NA through November & December are 2 million. It should be noted I'd say that is an over-estimate, but I'll keep it for this exercise. So total we expect through the end of year in NA is about 5.2 million. Estimate in Japan until a week ago was 280k. I would guess it's around 300k at end of December. Rest of world hisorically sold 45% of NA (from Microsoft historical information). 45% of 5.2 million is 2.34 million. Add it all together we get 5.2 + 0.3 + 2.34 = 7.84 million I would however include some margin of error like 10%, would give us a number of 7.9 million +/- 800k. If Microsoft hit its target of 'shipping' 10 million consoles by end of year, I would say selling between 7.9 and 8.7 million consoles through to consumers is a fairly plausible and respectable sellthrough (obviously they have not sold all since shops are bulging with consoles). Correct me if I got something wrong. ... now if you want a serious example of numbers that don't add up try PS3 on nexgenwars.com. They claim 858,000 PS3s worldwide. We saw about 200k in NA during November. We saw about 400k in Japan until one week ago. Probably close to 500k now. Put it together, they are saying only 158k in NA in December which is completely outside of conceivable reality. nexgenwars.com is Microsoft FUD.



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ICStats said: Sorry, I am re-starting this thread because for some reason I could not read my replies to the original. There's something in a post on that thread that is breaking the forum.. First a myth to clear up, NPD adds in an estimate for Walmart and other stores which they don't collect hard sales numbers from. You can find this information in this document Understanding NPD's Point of Sale Data http://www.adobe.com/macromedia/ir/macr/whitepapers/npd_pos.pdf Second I'll summarize the info we have. NPD sales in NA through end of October were 3.2 million. Early estimates of sales in NA through November & December are 2 million. It should be noted I'd say that is an over-estimate, but I'll keep it for this exercise. So total we expect through the end of year in NA is about 5.2 million. Estimate in Japan until a week ago was 280k. I would guess it's around 300k at end of December. Rest of world hisorically sold 45% of NA (from Microsoft historical information). 45% of 5.2 million is 2.34 million. Add it all together we get 5.2 + 0.3 + 2.34 = 7.84 million I would however include some margin of error like 10%, would give us a number of 7.9 million +/- 800k. If Microsoft hit its target of 'shipping' 10 million consoles by end of year, I would say selling between 7.9 and 8.7 million consoles through to consumers is a fairly plausible and respectable sellthrough (obviously they have not sold all since shops are bulging with consoles). Correct me if I got something wrong. ... now if you want a serious example of numbers that don't add up try PS3 on nexgenwars.com. They claim 858,000 PS3s worldwide. We saw about 200k in NA during November. We saw about 400k in Japan until one week ago. Probably close to 500k now. Put it together, they are saying only 158k in NA in December which is completely outside of conceivable reality. nexgenwars.com is Microsoft FUD.
There are some serious errors in your computations. First off, NPD is for the US only... it does not include all of NA. The 3.2 million figure you are citing through Oct does not include Canada and Mexico figures AT ALL. Secondly, the 2 million NPD number for Nov and Dec is NOT likely to be an overestimate. If you'll familiarize yourself with past Xmas holiday seasons, you'll find that the Xbox 1 did around 1.6 million in those two months nearly every holiday season. Add in an extra 400k for the rest of NA, and the Xbox 360 should EASILy get to 2 million. I'll restate my numbers from the previous post. These should be the numbers: - The NPD number of 3.2 million from Nov 05-Oct 06 (US ONLY) - The NPD number of 2 million from Nov 1st to Dec 25th for NA - My estimate of 1.5 million for the rest of NA from Nov 05 to Oct 06 (NPD data does not include this) - vgcharts estimate of the rest of the world from Nov 05 to Dec 06 of 2.76 million Those add up to about 9.4 million... which again, is in line with most expert analyst's opinion, and MS's own financial statements. 7.9 million is just plain goofy, and is not rooted in any common sense whatsoever.



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I'm sorry but it is you who are making errors about the NPD numbers. Numbers in US alone were only 2.9 million at end of October. As can be seen on many sources, total in USA was 3.4 million at the end of November. (they all show the same, 3.4 million in US at end of November which includes 510,000 sold during november, which puts October total in US at 2.9 million) The 3.2 million number I quoted for NA includes US, Canada and Mexico.



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Sorry but it is you who is making the serious errors. 3.2 million through October includes all of the Americas. US alone through October was only 2.9 million. The proof is on many sites. http://www.kotaku.com/gaming/npd/revised-npd-shows-lower-sales-good-flamebait-222038.php http://www.joystiq.com/2006/12/14/november-npd-revised-data-reveals-current-install-bases/ http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14737 According to those, US alone was 3.4 million at the end of November, which counts 510,000 sales in November, so at the end of October it was 2.9 million. Your estimate of 1.5 million is much too high for Canada and Mexico, their market is only about 10% the size of the US market. The 3.2 million figure I quoted includes US, Canada and Mexico. So again 3.2 + est 2.0 in november/december + 2.76 rest of world = 7.96.



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I said nearly the same things yesterday. As i suggested Monty just didnt want to hear me. He wont listen to you as well.



I answered something in the line of what you said but somehow the other thread broke and my answer was unreadable .I simply think Monty has his own ideas (or nextgenwars ideas ) and doesnt want to listen . Even ,NPD stated some 20 days ago that it had overestimated the amount of X360 sold as cumulative base in 400 000 and that wasnt reflected in the graphics of the principal page so we can see some surprises when the official numbers arrive .



Monty said: There are some serious errors in your computations. First off, NPD is for the US only... it does not include all of NA. The 3.2 million figure you are citing through Oct does not include Canada and Mexico figures AT ALL.
Some one already gave you a link that says NPD includes US and Canada. Here is the link again it is at the very bottom. But you will still press forward and not read my post so whatever. You are stating that Mexico only has sold 1.5 million. http://www.npd.com/entertainment-categories.html