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360 Numbers don't add up!

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2 million has been reported as an estimate for Nov + Dec in North America. Since Xbox 360 did around 600k in Nov this gives 1.4m for December giving ~5.2m for America (although I think 2 million for Nov + Dec is actually very optimistic). 300,000 for Japan is about right going from latest Media Create and Famitsu figures and 2.5m in Europe, Australia, Asia etc is also about right considering statements from MS themselves - half the NA total is about what has been sold at previous points. Remember that America is by far the Xbox 360's biggest market and NPD through November only shows around 3.5 million. There is no way that Microsoft are anywhere near 9-10m worldwide, and no way that 2 million Xbox 360s were sold in December - only PS / PS2 / GBA (and DS this year) have ever sold those amounts and usually off the back of a 1m+ November, not 600k - that would be a hell of a jump, wouldn't it and for no real reason - Gears of War came out at the start of November and has been the console's biggest game over christmas - any effect on hardware was seen last month really.



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Monty said: Adding in the rest, would easliy put the 360 well over 9 million, and likely moving toward 10 million (which fits with MS's own statements and other analysts figures).
This might be compatible with your statement Monty: nexgenwars.com Whatcha think?



creep_dxb said: Monty said: Adding in the rest, would easliy put the 360 well over 9 million, and likely moving toward 10 million (which fits with MS's own statements and other analysts figures). This might be compatible with your statement Monty: nexgenwars.com Whatcha think?
Well, that makes a heck of a lot more sense to me. All I know for certain is that 7.9 million is WAY too low, and I'm awfully suspicious of a web site run by a person who goes by the handle "Wii_gamer", like this one. With numbers like these it's way too easy to slant the numbers any way you want and then cite top secret sources that you won't reveal. Even if you slant every 360 number to the low end - as everybody tries so hard to do here - you still come up with more than 7.9 million. For example, say you take these people's low ball figure of 4.5 million WW by the end of Sept AND take their word that CNBC was saying 2 million in NA for Nov and Dec... giving everybody the low end benefit - which is wrong, but just for argument sake - that gives the 360 6.5 million. Now add in the entire WW sales for Oct, which we know US sales were about 550k... add in Mexico, Canada, Europe, Australia, and Asia, and you'd pretty getting close to 1 million... that gives the 360 7.5 million after that. Then you have to add in the entire rest of the world for Nov and Dec (minus NA)... they apparently believe that in the rest of Nov and Dec you have only 400k of sales. So, if I lowball everything, you might end up with 8.5-8.7 million. That's on the EXTREME low end, giving every benefit of the doubt against the 360. Nobody can draw me a logical map as to how the 360 has only 7.9 million. All I know is that when we get official numbers, I'll be back here to do a little dance and say I was right. And, if I was wrong, I'll gladly come back and take my lumps... but, I'm telling you, that will NOT happen.



I can try to draw you one, dont know if you wanna watch at it though We have pretty accurate numbers for xbox (not 360). According to them box's sales are distributed among regions: ~66% NA | ~2% Japan | ~32% rest world What do we know about xbox360 ? 1)It's sales arent better xbox ones, however its rather comparable. 2)Seems that it had better sales in Europe, but on the other hand we have Wii in gigantic demand @ xmas season. So that gives us approximately same 65% for NA out of total. Lets see what we know about NA+box360. Wikipedia says 3.4m @ dec 7, vgcharts 3.77m @ dec 1, we will take vgcharts data. So 3.2m @ NA @ 1 nov. 3.2m + those 2m estimates -> 5.2m. Making a simple proportion will get us 7.9m worldwide. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Im not saying it is correct. Thats MY estimates. Based on accessible data. Now i hope you can belive that vgcharts CAN be correct.



Bah... 6m through Sept was sold to retailers your 4.5m sold to customers is way to low you really think 1.5m consoles were sitting on shelves it was more like 5.5m sold through September add in 2m (min) in Oct - Dec for USA = 7.5m add in another Million for the rest of the world (USA has about 50 - 55% of 360 sales) and thats 8.5m at the minimum. So i would say its at 8.6 - 9.2m Sold to customers and 10m+ sold to retailers



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Townzy said: Bah... 6m through Sept was sold to retailers your 4.5m sold to customers is way to low you really think 1.5m consoles were sitting on shelves it was more like 5.5m sold through September add in 2m (min) in Oct - Dec for USA = 7.5m add in another Million for the rest of the world (USA has about 50 - 55% of 360 sales) and thats 8.5m at the minimum. So i would say its at 8.6 - 9.2m Sold to customers and 10m+ sold to retailers
NPD at the end of September was less than 3 million. You really think the same again had been sold outside of America?



Well the 2 million sold in NA is 1:First including december AND november .That would put the number in december around 1,430 00 consoles sold . 2.Second ....estimates .The same that said numbers of the X360 for november would be between 750 000 and 1 million only to see later the real numbers around 515 00 .If in 15 days we see the real numbers and about 1 million X360 have been sold being beaten by the Wii nobody should surprise too much .Analysts seem to estimate the numbers of the X360 always in the optimistic way only to see themselves corriged month after month . Like it or not ,this page has already added 1,5 million X360 for NA for december so the data of this page regarding the X360 is straight (it could even be worse if the final numbers are below estimations as in november ) .That you dont like it is another matter ,of course .



We have a little more clarity on the 2 million number: "Market analysts NPD have suggested that the Xbox 360 was the best-selling console in the US over Christmas - with the Nintendo Wii trailing by just 200,000 units. According to the firm's preliminary estimates, as reported by CNBC, around 2 million Xbox 360 units were sold in North America from November up until December 25. The figure for Nintendo Wii stood at 1.8 million units - despite the fact the console only launched in North America on November 19, and the first batch of stock sold out within hours." http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=21958 So, the 2 million estimate by NPD was only through Dec 25th. If you add up all the NPD data through Oct you get about 3.2 million consoles sold (keep in mind NPD does not include the #1 console seller in America - Wal Mart, among others). Add in the 2 million number, and you have 5.2 million. Add in the rest of NA for Nov 05 - Oct 06 (a full year), and you'll EASILY have another 1.5 million... that puts the 360 at a minimum of 6.7 million for NA alone! Let's take this own site's guess at the rest of the world on face value. vgcharts says that the rest of the world sold 2.76 million 360's. Add that into 6.7 million and you have 9.46 million. That's a bare minimum. If you think I'm wrong, tell me EXACTLY which number you think I'm wrong, and by how much. Here are your choices: - The NPD number of 3.2 million from Nov 05-Oct 06 (US) - The NPD number of 2 million from Nov 1st to Dec 25th for NA - My estimate of 1.5 million for the rest of NA from Nov 05 to Oct 06 - vgcharts estimate of the rest of the world from Nov 05 to Dec 06 of 2.76 million You've got to cut about 1.5 million out of there somewhere to even remotely believe vgcharts. The problem is the bulk of the numbers are from NPD and vgcharts. So, I guess you have to believe that the rest of NA (Canda and Mexico) sold ZERO 360's from Nov 05 to Oct 06! Oh, and I'm not even including sales from Dec 25th-Dec 31st for all of NA, nor are we including any sales from Wal-Mart, the #1 console seller in the US. So, even my number is on the low end of the scale.



You are adding two times the christmas sales ....wonder if you realize this .If at 30 november the X360 had sold 3,78 million units in NA as reported by NPD then even if you add the estimated 1,43 million of december you still are around 5 million 200 000 consoles ....thats the number of the X360 sold in NA in the main page .And that if the estimates for december are correct unlike november when the estimates were nearly double the final numbers .In Japan you know the number ....250 000 consoles and extra weeks dont change too much .And here in Europe it isnt selling like hotcakes either the PS2 has been selling like 10 times for the whole year and even if in christmas it has pulled some numbers I assure you the PS2 has sold much more and the Wii would had it had enough supply ...besides people here are waiting for the PS3 .



Monty said: ... NPD data is US only. A lot of people want to turn that into North America data, when it does not include Canada and Mexico.
Is this true? I just check NPD for the heck of it and it says this at the bottom of the page: "Regions NPD provides information and insights for the music and film & video industries in the U.S. and for the games industry in Canada and the U.S." http://www.npd.com/entertainment-categories.html" target="_blank" class="link">http://www.npd.com/entertainment-categories.html]http://www.npd.com/entertainment-categories.html[/url]