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360 Numbers don't add up!

Forums - Sales Discussion - 360 Numbers don't add up!

Monty said: I don't believe it was laughed off the internet... at last check it was still there. Anyhow, don't kill the messenger... if you have a problem with these professional analysts, you can take it up with them. But, it goes in line with what I've been saying all along... most professionals cite the 360 sales as being much higher than what vgcharts is displaying.
Well the figure for PS3 is definitely more than 0.5m. I really wouldn't look too much into those figures, they were likely guessed a few months back and are heavily rounded. The whole article has been laughed at because their sales projections are absurd. Mexico may well be an upcoming gaming region, and I'm sure sales don't count for zero there, but to suggest that it is going to make up the 2 million difference between the ~8m that most of us get to through reasoned estimation and using data we have to the 10m that microsoft claim to have shipped is crazy. I'd imagine that sales in Mexico are less than 100,000. That's not to say they won't grow as the country develops as a gaming region but you are clutching at straws if you think sales there are going to be significant. You're pretty inconsistent with your numbers, if you look back you combine NA estimates with US NPD data and so on and then start adding more for Mexico. What do you think sales should be? Give us your breakdown region by region and we can pick holes...



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Monty said: I don't believe it was laughed off the internet... at last check it was still there. Anyhow, don't kill the messenger... if you have a problem with these professional analysts, you can take it up with them. But, it goes in line with what I've been saying all along... most professionals cite the 360 sales as being much higher than what vgcharts is displaying.
Well the figure for PS3 is definitely more than 0.5m. I really wouldn't look too much into those figures, they were likely guessed a few months back and are heavily rounded. The whole article has been laughed at because their sales projections are absurd. Mexico may well be an upcoming gaming region, and I'm sure sales don't count for zero there, but to suggest that it is going to make up the 2 million difference between the ~8m that most of us get to through reasoned estimation and using data we have to the 10m that microsoft claim to have shipped is crazy. I'd imagine that sales in Mexico are less than 100,000. That's not to say they won't grow as the country develops as a gaming region but you are clutching at straws if you think sales there are going to be significant. You're pretty inconsistent with your numbers, if you look back you combine NA estimates with US NPD data and so on and then start adding more for Mexico. What do you think sales should be? Give us your breakdown region by region and we can pick holes...



Monty said: DreamsCast said: Monty, seriously, drop the Mexico thing. There are very little, if any consoles sold in Mexico- any that are would be imports from the USA and have already been counted as the man has said. It is a traditional rule of thumb that has been used for the last 20 years that NA ~ 1.1 * USA NPD It works for every other console and software title out there, and it has also been common to have 2m+ units unsold just after christmas. Shipments before are always huge and then pretty small for the first 3-6 months of the next year. Personally I don't see how Xbox360 can be over 5 million NA at this point, never mind the sorts of figures you are suggesting. I think someone made a good point that if vgcharts is arriving at the figures for all 3 consoles using the same methodology then how can they be accused of being biased? If they take the same raw data from the same sources and do the same calculations on it to get the final figure for all 3 then how can they be any fairer than that? Can you show me where Mexico accounts for zero sales? Also, I'd be interested to see where you're getting the 10% figure for all of NA minus the US. What I do know is that MS had an official launch in Mexico, Mexico is listed as a "significant" emerging market in video games according to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_and_video_games). Heck, MS just had a big launch party in Mexico for a single game... Viva Pinata... in which they attempted to break the record for the largest Pinata ever. Does this sound like actions that a company would do for a market that sells ZERO consoles? Hell, no... All of you people just tell me to "forget" Mexico and that it sells nothing... that simply isn't true, and unless somebody can back that up, then I'll keep on...
Good lord man, do you read the responses people give you. Its been stated several times in this thread that its cheaper for Mexican gamers to import their 360s from the US than buy them from local retailers. One guy from Mexico even stated this. So its not that Mexican gamers account for zero sales its just the majority of their sales would count towards the US totals.



I can't wait for the actual numbers to come out... NPD will report a surprisingly strong December for 360 in the US (as everything points to so far), Vgcharts will report about 110% of that for their NA estimate, as they have consistently done, and then what are you going to do, Monty? I've stopped following the thread when you stopped even responding to me Monty, but as far as I can tell, you don't have much to say about Vgcharts Nov05-Nov06 NA estimates, without making assumptions (some of them rather grand) about Mexican sales. If Vgcharts just does what they've always done, I think your argument is shot Monty. Very much looking forward to tomorrow...



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

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Darc Requiem said: Good lord man, do you read the responses people give you. Its been stated several times in this thread that its cheaper for Mexican gamers to import their 360s from the US than buy them from local retailers. One guy from Mexico even stated this. So its not that Mexican gamers account for zero sales its just the majority of their sales would count towards the US totals.
Because one person on the internet told me that, I should take it on faith alone? One person from Canada also told you that they account for more than 10% of US sales as Canada is more tech savvy and per capita buys more of that stuff... did you take that off of faith alone too? Anecdotal evidence means nothing in this debate... people can tell stories on either side of this debate all day, but I wouldn't take any of them for more than just what they are... And, as I stated numerous times - Mexico had an official launch, gets its own shipments, and is listed as an emerging country with strong video game sales. They do not simply import all their 360's from the US... that's crazy talk.



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Erik Aston said: I can't wait for the actual numbers to come out... NPD will report a surprisingly strong December for 360 in the US (as everything points to so far), Vgcharts will report about 110% of that for their NA estimate, as they have consistently done, and then what are you going to do, Monty? I've stopped following the thread when you stopped even responding to me Monty, but as far as I can tell, you don't have much to say about Vgcharts Nov05-Nov06 NA estimates, without making assumptions (some of them rather grand) about Mexican sales. If Vgcharts just does what they've always done, I think your argument is shot Monty. Very much looking forward to tomorrow...
You don't seem to understand the problem here, Erik... everybody keeps citing this 10% figure... telling me it's been that way "forever" and that "everybody" knows about this, and it's the way "everybody" does it. However, NOBODY can show me where they are getting this, and I can't find anything to support that notion. I also can't find anything to suggest that Mexico is included in the 10%. And as you stated in your last post, you deem Mexico "unimportant". And, while I can't find any exact figures, I would say evidence points that that isn't true (an official launch, an "emerging" country in video game sales, a recent big event to launch a single game (Viva Pinata), etc... ) Anyhow, NA was a smaller point in the big picture as it was the easiest to find figures for and compare. While I showed earlier it was 400k off, you replied that it was likely because vgcharts was out of date and I was going off their "old estimate" and that 400k could be made up in a week or two. I have no problem with that "out of date" theory, but it would definitely be nice if vgcharts displayed a rough idea of when the stats are up to date through. For all we know, they could be showing the totals for Dec 1st, right? How would we know any different? One of the problems with this debate is that the numbers have changed about 3 times since we started, and we're now 10 days into January... if the figures are up to date (as some suggest they are), then it's about impossible to argue their NA figure as I am no seeing that I have NO idea what vgcharts is reporting as its Dec 31st NA number anymore!!! Some of you say the site is horribly out of date, some say it's up to the minute.... I guess we need to figure out which it is first!



According to the World Factbook (run by the CIA), the average Mexican household makes $10,000 US. I submit that it is unlikely console sales are significant in a country when a 360 costs $300 or $400 without games, live, extra controllers. The country has 40 million impovershied citizens. Assuming the top twenty percent of Mexico makes about what an average American might, that is still a market of 20 million peeople or so. If roughly 1/60 x 300 million Americans bought a 360 (rounded to 5 million sales) at comparable income levels to that top 20 million, then I would expect 1/60 x 20 million = 300k in Mexican 360 users. Most of which were bought in the USA because the price is cheaper and supply is greater. - The Source



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Monty said: Random() said: Monty why do you insist on having the 360 reach 10 million? You dont approach a problem with an answer and then fit data to prove it. You need to accept that these are solid estimates. VGCharts is very transparent and therefore seem credible. Unlike some other nextgenwars type of sites... Why do I have to accept things at face value? Isn't it ok to question the stats? As for vgcharts being "transparent", I highly disagree. They tell you they get numbers from NPD and Media Create... REALLY!?!?! That's not anything special there, random. The real question is where they get the rest of their data. Data from Europe, Mexico, and other parts of the world are NOT easy to come by. I tell you what.... why don't you ask where they get all their numbers from and see how "transparent" they really are?
What does this site have to gain by saying MS didnt sell 10 million? You seem to take Microsoft's statistics at face value as you seem to try to fit there estimates with your numbers. And you have to agree that MS has an interest in misleading us... but really why would VGCharts lie? do you think they are run by Nintendo or Sony? it just seems that you really want to spin numbers until we agree that the 360 is the sytem of the gods. the numbers i really would like to see is what % of 360's are defective. because i know of a few people with broken down 360's... yours truly included.



Sorry, but anyone with even the TINIEST bit of knowledge of any business knows how ridiculous it is to suggest that the 360 had sold about 4.5 million and had an additional 1.5 million shipped. Sorry, but this is not the 1960s and companies simply do not keep that much inventory for ANY product on hand. A little leson for you, since you all are REALLY ignroant. Any store will not keep more than 1 month inventory. Inventory is the NUMBER ONE cost of a business. Therefore, if a console had sold 4.5 million units in 6 months, there is NO WAY that businesses would accept 1.5 million in inventory. It just does not happen. Not even close. Seriously...I know this is hte internet where 12 year old kids like to think they can bluff their wauy into looking like experts on every subject, but when you gt called on your bluff, all you do is lose ALL credibility for future posts. These numbers are wrong...plain and simple.



Random() said: What does this site have to gain by saying MS didnt sell 10 million? You seem to take Microsoft's statistics at face value as you seem to try to fit there estimates with your numbers. And you have to agree that MS has an interest in misleading us... but really why would VGCharts lie? do you think they are run by Nintendo or Sony? it just seems that you really want to spin numbers until we agree that the 360 is the sytem of the gods. the numbers i really would like to see is what % of 360's are defective. because i know of a few people with broken down 360's... yours truly included.
Been checking around different forums and sites a bit trying to find some real numbers myself... and I just had to sign up to ask... Are you serious that you trust the numbers on this site because you don't see the reason they would lie? That does not make any kind of sense at all. Of course you have to question the numbers if they don't show where they got them from. They could be missinformed themselves, you don't need to actively lie to post something incorrect.