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360 Numbers don't add up!

Forums - Sales Discussion - 360 Numbers don't add up!

psorcerer said: Monty said: - 800k for the rest of NA - 200k for the last week of Dec 2006 in the US Just admit that you've pulled these numbers out of nowhere. So I'll invent mine: 600k for all NA will be in NPD December report, try to argue with that.
It's not very tough to argue that one... NPD doesn't do a NA report. There is just a US report, and a separate Canada report which is rarely ever seen. They do nothing for Mexico, and they never combine Canada and US numbers, as they can make more money by selling their data separately. As for my numbers, the 200k was an average for daily sold. Early indication is that the 360 sold 1.2 million in the US in Dec. That's an average per day of 43k units sold. If I take that average out over the 26th-31st, then that was actually around 240k units, so I was a little low, but in the ballpark. I guess what I'm saying is that figure was based on actual data, not just picked from my butt, and in the end it was damn close. The 800k number is a complete guess, and was never a number that I claimed *I* believed. I feel it is much higher, but used 800k to try to appease some members of the site. I now see why a new poster to this thread said he quit reading after 3 pages as we're recycling old information. You guys bring up the same points over and over for me to answer. I'm pretty much done with this conversation and was a few days ago, but I'll stick around to answer all your questions and will definitely stick around for when we find out who was right. I guess what I'm saying is if you guys want to go over the same issues for eternity, I'll be happy to join in, but I'd suggest we move on and discuss new data as it pops up, or new evidence to help our old case(s). Right now we're not getting anywhere with the old stuff.



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Monty said: Doh! You are so correct. I indeed misread that. Score one for yourself! It's now 114 for me, 1 for you - for those keeping score at home! And this thread is still going on because I am right! If it was the off the wall, thoughtless, and without some merit it would not have lasted this long. However, I think we're just about at the end of the discussion. Just about everybody now agrees that vgcharts is too low on the 360 number (although we differ on the exact amount), and we've just come to agree that it's just horribly out of date, which explains the big difference!
Nobody has yet agreed with you Monty. The latest figure on the front page is UP TO DATE AS OF SUNDAY NIGHT. It is as current as you can get. Total sales for Xbox360 worldwide upto that point is 8.3m. There are 2.1m 'stocks' around the world - this comes about because stores order loads in to anticipate the big christmas rush, it's a common thing that Sony and Nintendo do as well. Shipments will probably be low for the next couple of months as the christmas stock is gradually used up. Xbox360 sold below expectations this christmas, that is why stock is still left. You can pull numbers from here and there and play with them but the figures are there. North America includes USA, Canada, Mexico (Around 10% higher than USA alone so you can easily estimate this yourselves from raw NPD as many of you have been to give ~5.2m using the early estimates which have been made public - which range from 2m in Nov / Dec to 550k Nov and 1.2m Dec and is actually somewhere between these two). Others includes Europe, Asia excluding Japan, Australia, Africa etc (mainly Europe) of which the UK is the biggest market with 900k sold and France 2nd with 350k. All other countries are much lower than this. Japan is self explanatory and has been tracked by Famitsu / Media Create. To keep suggesting that Canada + Mexico (that well known gaming region lol) account for more than 800k sales is absurd and defies all logic. This is the major an obvious flaw in your agrument. The actual figure is less than 350k - I have it here so trust me please. Just under 10% of USA is the rule of thumb people have been using for years and it fits in most cases.



One last thing... I found where I read the site owner of vgchart was a Nintendo fan, which is what started me on that train of thought: "vgcharts is not accurate. It's run by some toolbox from the Gaming Age forum and has basically been debunked by any credible NPD/Media Create hound on that forum. He just makes stuff up, exactly like nextgenwars." "The only source of data this guy has is forum threads on GAF. That's it. Media Create is all over the net, and European stuff trickles in from time to time, but there's no way he has an NPD license, not to mention December NPD won't be released until early January. It's guesswork, plain and simple. And fwiw, his posts on GAF are generally slanted towards Nintendo. I think he's a fan." http://www.evilavatar.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22984&page=3&pp=10 So, in case you were curious what started me on that path... it was that thread above. And, for the record, as I stated before, I can't say the above is true, and am not presenting this to prove a point... just in case you were curious why I said what I did.



Wii_gamer said: Nobody has yet agreed with you Monty. The latest figure on the front page is UP TO DATE AS OF SUNDAY NIGHT. It is as current as you can get. Total sales for Xbox360 worldwide upto that point is 8.3m. There are 2.1m 'stocks' around the world - this comes about because stores order loads in to anticipate the big christmas rush, it's a common thing that Sony and Nintendo do as well. Shipments will probably be low for the next couple of months as the christmas stock is gradually used up. Xbox360 sold below expectations this christmas, that is why stock is still left. You can pull numbers from here and there and play with them but the figures are there. North America includes USA, Canada, Mexico (Around 10% higher than USA alone so you can easily estimate this yourselves from raw NPD as many of you have been to give ~5.2m using the early estimates which have been made public - which range from 2m in Nov / Dec to 550k Nov and 1.2m Dec and is actually somewhere between these two). Others includes Europe, Asia excluding Japan, Australia, Africa etc (mainly Europe) of which the UK is the biggest market with 900k sold and France 2nd with 350k. All other countries are much lower than this. Japan is self explanatory and has been tracked by Famitsu / Media Create. To keep suggesting that Canada + Mexico (that well known gaming region lol) account for more than 800k sales is absurd and defies all logic. This is the major an obvious flaw in your agrument. The actual figure is less than 350k - I have it here so trust me please. Just under 10% of USA is the rule of thumb people have been using for years and it fits in most cases.
Don't yell at me for other's suggesting to me that the site was out of date. You can read back for yourself... I am not the one that said that. I just said that I'd agree with it, if that's what *their* claim was. As for the NA argument, we've been through that a million times. Unless you can show me a source that shows Mexico sales, you're just pulling stuff out of your butt, as you are claiming I am. What I do know is that Canada's population is 10% of the US, and it is HIGHLY likely they sell 10% of the US alone. So, what you're telling me is that Mexico sells ZERO consoles. What I also know is that YOU just told me YOU believe that the rest of NA totals 10% of the US. Then you tell me that YOU have the number and it is "under 350k". According to vgcharts, 5.38 units have been sold in NA. If I take out YOUR 350k figure, that is still above 5 million for the US. Using YOUR 10% figure, means that NA at least sold 500k. WHICH MEANS YOUR OWN FIGURES MAKE NO SENSE! You're either lying about the 10% or the 350k. Personally, I think it's both. And I'm supposed to "trust you"? But, again... I can keep responding to these all day and recycling the same conversation. It is entertaining to me to see what you guys are coming up with.



Monty said: Don't yell at me for other's suggesting to me that the site was out of date. You can read back for yourself... I am not the one that said that. I just said that I'd agree with it, if that's what *their* claim was. As for the NA argument, we've been through that a million times. Unless you can show me a source that shows Mexico sales, you're just pulling stuff out of your butt, as you are claiming I am. What I do know is that Canada's population is 10% of the US, and it is HIGHLY likely they sell 10% of the US alone. So, what you're telling me is that Mexico sells ZERO consoles. What I also know is that YOU just told me YOU believe that the rest of NA totals 10% of the US. Then you tell me that YOU have the number and it is "under 350k". According to vgcharts, 5.38 units have been sold in NA. If I take out YOUR 350k figure, that is still above 5 million for the US. Using YOUR 10% figure, means that NA at least sold 500k. WHICH MEANS YOUR OWN FIGURES MAKE NO SENSE! You're either lying about the 10% or the 350k. Personally, I think it's both. And I'm supposed to "trust you"? But, again... I can keep responding to these all day and recycling the same conversation. It is entertaining to me to see what you guys are coming up with.
5.38m as of Sunday, that includes the first week in Jan. Total sales in Canada as of November were under 350k compared to 3.45m for USA. Sorry if I wasn't clear on the figures. Total sales in Canada as of December are thought to be around ~500k, with ~4.7m in the USA. Another small issue with some of your assumptions; why do you think a console will sell as well between 25th Dec and 31st even though some days are not retail days anyway and the big rush for christmas is now over? In the week before christmas 400,000 Xbox360s were sold, but you can't just extrapolate this up for the whole month, things built up to that and will die down again after christmas. Also estimates for December cover a huge range, the 2 million for Nov + Dec upto 25th is definitely the highest, most are a little more conservative including ours.



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TalonMan said: Monty said: I'm not even sure what to say anymore... everytime I read something in this thread that makes me shake my head and laugh, I read one thing even funnier. I think the claim that vgcharts is more accurate than the NPD might now be my all time favorite! It's getting to the point where I'm now starting to think you guys are just screwing with me and you don't really believe what you're saying. How can anybody sane believe some of this stuff? I cannot believe this thread is still going... ...I'll give you credit for persistance. ...FYI - I'm pretty sure that guy meant the Japanese sales charts are more accurate than NPD - and I'm also pretty sure that's a fair assessment. Now apologize!!
Yes, thankyou. That's exactly what I was saying. The numbers on this site are likely based in accurate information, is what I was implying. And I was stating we know for a fact the Japan numbers are extremely accurate cause they record that stuff weekly. Where did I ever say "VG charts are more accurate than NPD" ??? Some people.....



Here is a great source for checking/refuting numbers: http://www.the-magicbox.com/charts.htm It will soon have 2006 figures for the USA & Japan. Platinum Game sales are also routinely updated. (10 years + of media crate and npd data)



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Totally off subject but does NPD take returns into account when calculating their sales numbers? In other words if someone buys a PS3 and then returns it and then someone else buys it again does that count as 2 PS3 sales?



Wii_gamer said: 5.38m as of Sunday, that includes the first week in Jan. Total sales in Canada as of November were under 350k compared to 3.45m for USA. Sorry if I wasn't clear on the figures. Total sales in Canada as of December are thought to be around ~500k, with ~4.7m in the USA. Another small issue with some of your assumptions; why do you think a console will sell as well between 25th Dec and 31st even though some days are not retail days anyway and the big rush for christmas is now over? In the week before christmas 400,000 Xbox360s were sold, but you can't just extrapolate this up for the whole month, things built up to that and will die down again after christmas. Also estimates for December cover a huge range, the 2 million for Nov + Dec upto 25th is definitely the highest, most are a little more conservative including ours.
I don't believe that the 360 sold as well from Dec 26th - Dec 31st, which is why I didn't cite it at the 250k that would have been the straight "average" (43k times 6 days). I instead said 200k... 50k less than the average. And, again... it was a rough estimate to try to reach a total. It's a pretty pointless disucssion as it was likely VERY close, and wasn't part of a major point... If you believe the total to be 150k (or whatever you believe) it wouldn't make a difference in the ultimate point. Also, to revisit the Canada/Mexico argument, you called my 800k firgure "absurd" and that it "defies all locgic" a minute ago. You added that Canada was "not" above 350k by itself. Now you're trying to tell me that was a figure that was out of date by 2 months, and the total for Canada alone is about 500k? So, if Mexico even sold a mere 200-300k in 14 months, then my figure doesn't seem so "absurd" anymore, does it? Was this one of those other times that I was "proven wrong" as you keep saying? I've yet to find where I've been proven wrong on any statistic. But, now that I've proven you wrong, I'm sure you'll try to say you were "mistaken"?



All I know is when both Wii and PS3 roll out at the end of March and both of them say they shipped 6 million (by the way, there was an interview with one of sony's presidents or something, shipped for them mean "sell-thru" or sold to retailer...) Well you be arguing so hard for their numbers on here Monty? Cause I gaurentee you this site probably won't match what Sony will say it shipped, or Nintendo for that matter. In fact, Wii may ship more than 6 million...and this sites numbers are likely to be less than shipped numbers for both those companies...will you still be arguing about this? I have the sneaking suspicion you won't be when it comes to those companies products. I think that spells something.. (it has an impeller on it, it pulls air thru it) + (a young male) = ....