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JEMC said:

While I agree that Cafe needs to be more than a third more powerfull than a PS3/Xbox360 there are 2 things that you need to consider.

1-Resolution. Nintendo chosed to launch a console without HD while PS3/Xbox360 used it as a main selling point. This meant that a multiplatform game needed a different engine on the Wii, another set of textures, etc. plus another control scheme. This time while PS4/Xbox720 may pursue the true 1080p at 60fps, developers will be able to use the same engine and textures on Cafe, but at 720p.

2-Development costs. As SaviorX points if Sony and Microsoft launch new consoles with a leap in performance comparable to the one from PS2 to PS3 that will lead to far too high costs, forcing them to look for as many ways to increase income as possible. Since compays refuse to launch most of its games on PC due to piracy, the other ways to find this income is lauching in as many platforms as possible, that means launching them on Cafe, or increase the price of the games. And knowing them they will probably do both.


As I (think I did anyway) pointed out in my previous post (moments ago), graphics aren't the only thing to a game engine.  There's numbers of objects to track at once, physics, particles, players online, sizes of stages, framerate, and all sorts of other things.  Even if the Wii magically output in High Def, it's CPU and GPU were still just "supercharged" GameCube parts.  It still wouldn't have been able to handle the Unreal engine.

As such, if Cafe is truly just a dismal one-third more powerful than a PS3, then it might as well be little more than a "supercharged" PS3 or Xbox360.  Sure, it'll be able to handle HD graphical output, but it's won't be able to handle the vastly more complex engines built to optimize on the PS4 or Xbox720.

 

For the other thing, ever since the N64 and GameCube, 3rd party companies have had to weigh the amount of profit they'd get from a Nintendo system compared to development costs.  Sure, overall, they'd probably make more money porting said game to every system, but developers found on the GameCube that, even though it was easily in the same league as the PS2 and Xbox, games didn't sell on there.  Many yanked GameCube support and simply stuck with PS2 and Xbox.  Why even bother putting some games on the Nintendo system when they pretty much always sell vastly lower numbers on there compared to Sony or Microsoft's machines?  Essentially, despite the viability of cross-platforms to make a profit, overall, many companies saw it as financially unfeasible to port their multiplatform game to the GameCube.  They didn't even see the point.  

It'd be different if 3rd party companies had any respectable success on Nintendo systems, but since the N64, regardless of quality, they generally haven't had success on Nintendo systems, because by and large, Nintendo fans don't support 3rd party games.  They'd apparently rather have Wii Music or more lame-ass crap with Mario in it than 3rd party software.  And sadly, it doesn't seem to matter if the 3rd party stuff is high quality or if the Nintendo stuff is basically shovelware.  Wii Music still grossly outsold Bully and Dead Space Extraction.    



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Resident_Hazard said:

Wii Music still grossly outsold Bully and Dead Space Extraction.    

I respect your arguments, but for the above it doesn't really work like that. You have movies like twilight that grossly outsell movies like No Country for Old Men. The thing you have to remember is that there are many markets on one same platform. Those who buy Wii Music are not the same as those who buy Monster Hunter Tri, are even not necessarily those who buy a port of a PS2 game, like Bully. The problem with Gamecube as a profit base for 3rd parties is that it was limited. In contrast with the playstation 2, which ended up selling 141m I bevlieve, the GC only ended up with 21m (global, lifetime). When the Cafe launches, we don't know how it will fair graphics/performance-wise as compared to the other two, especially given sony's position that they don't want to do a huge push like they did with PS3. Add to that the fact that Nintendo still wants to sell its million sellers, it just wants to time them in synchrony with 3rd party dev launches so as to not eclipse them (from the Iwata interview, I'll provide source if needed), and you have a totaly different ball game.

Moreover, Nintendo was able to pass the 85m sales mark this gen, that makes it a very healthy base for 3rd parties, except for the fact that it doesn't have the HD power of the other manufacturers. With Cafe, that problem is gone, and so in my view, as a prediction, yes it will take time and 3rd Party Relations to get things going, but I see the conditions being right for proper 3rd party support, no matter how many people buy games like My Little Pony and such (they're different markets). 



padib said:

Resident_Hazard said:

Wii Music still grossly outsold Bully and Dead Space Extraction.    

I respect your arguments, but for the above it doesn't really work like that. You have movies like twilight that grossly outsell movies like No Country for Old Men. The thing you have to remember is that there are many markets on one same platform. Those who buy Wii Music are not the same as those who buy Monster Hunter Tri, are even not necessarily those who buy a port of a PS2 game, like Bully. The problem with Gamecube as a profit base for 3rd parties is that it was limited. In contrast with the playstation 2, which ended up selling 141m I bevlieve, the GC only ended up with 21m (global, lifetime). When the Cafe launches, we don't know how it will fair graphics/performance-wise as compared to the other two, especially given sony's position that they don't want to do a huge push like they did with PS3. Add to that the fact that Nintendo still wants to sell its million sellers, it just wants to time them in synchrony with 3rd party dev launches so as to not eclipse them (from the Iwata interview, I'll provide source if needed), and you have a totaly different ball game.

Moreover, Nintendo was able to pass the 85m sales mark this gen, that makes it a very healthy base for 3rd parties, except for the fact that it doesn't have the HD power of the other manufacturers. With Cafe, that problem is gone, and so in my view, as a prediction, yes it will take time and 3rd Party Relations to get things going, but I see the conditions being right for proper 3rd party support, no matter how many people buy games like My Little Pony and such (they're different markets). 


I get your point on the Wii Music/Bully comparison.  And yes, crap movies do make money when good (even great) movies often barely eek by.  (I'm also formerly a pretty big movie nerd, but I've pretty much abandoned my movie-love and vastly increased my gaming hunger.)

I'm wary of comparing sales of PS2 games to GameCube, however, and usually would prefer to compare GameCube to Xbox which had very close overall sales numbers (with the Xbox leading by a mere couple million).  In that scenario, the Xbox still maintained better sales and support where 3rd party companies are concerned.

The Wii reaching 85 million should've been healthy for 3rd party devs but it still wasn't, except in rare cases.  Hit franchises still struggled on the system.  The casual audience doesn't seem to know a quality gaming experience from a throw-away iPhone app, so they didn't know to support, or expand to, what some of us would consider hardcore or "real" 3rd party video games.  And the Nintendo fans... as is typical, pretty much just bought Nintendo stuff.

I do see how Cafe, with it's power roughly in line with PS3 and Xbox360 could manage some better ports of 3rd party games--like Call of Duty not being downgraded in any way, but I both see the support as slow to catch on, and quick to move away when the next Xbox and Playstation launch.  

I firmly believe there are still treasures to be found in the Xbox360 and PS3's respective hardware, but I'm not kidding myself--while I love that this generation has legs (and it should), the limits of both systems will become far more apparent within the next two years.  When Sony and Microsoft launch their next consoles, those limits will be left behind--except in Project Cafe--which will then be, last-gen tech.



Resident_Hazard said:
padib said:

Resident_Hazard said:

Wii Music still grossly outsold Bully and Dead Space Extraction.    

I respect your arguments, but for the above it doesn't really work like that. You have movies like twilight that grossly outsell movies like No Country for Old Men. The thing you have to remember is that there are many markets on one same platform. Those who buy Wii Music are not the same as those who buy Monster Hunter Tri, are even not necessarily those who buy a port of a PS2 game, like Bully. The problem with Gamecube as a profit base for 3rd parties is that it was limited. In contrast with the playstation 2, which ended up selling 141m I bevlieve, the GC only ended up with 21m (global, lifetime). When the Cafe launches, we don't know how it will fair graphics/performance-wise as compared to the other two, especially given sony's position that they don't want to do a huge push like they did with PS3. Add to that the fact that Nintendo still wants to sell its million sellers, it just wants to time them in synchrony with 3rd party dev launches so as to not eclipse them (from the Iwata interview, I'll provide source if needed), and you have a totaly different ball game.

Moreover, Nintendo was able to pass the 85m sales mark this gen, that makes it a very healthy base for 3rd parties, except for the fact that it doesn't have the HD power of the other manufacturers. With Cafe, that problem is gone, and so in my view, as a prediction, yes it will take time and 3rd Party Relations to get things going, but I see the conditions being right for proper 3rd party support, no matter how many people buy games like My Little Pony and such (they're different markets). 


I get your point on the Wii Music/Bully comparison.  And yes, crap movies do make money when good (even great) movies often barely eek by.  (I'm also formerly a pretty big movie nerd, but I've pretty much abandoned my movie-love and vastly increased my gaming hunger.)

I'm wary of comparing sales of PS2 games to GameCube, however, and usually would prefer to compare GameCube to Xbox which had very close overall sales numbers (with the Xbox leading by a mere couple million).  In that scenario, the Xbox still maintained better sales and support where 3rd party companies are concerned.

The Wii reaching 85 million should've been healthy for 3rd party devs but it still wasn't, except in rare cases.  Hit franchises still struggled on the system.  The casual audience doesn't seem to know a quality gaming experience from a throw-away iPhone app, so they didn't know to support, or expand to, what some of us would consider hardcore or "real" 3rd party video games.  And the Nintendo fans... as is typical, pretty much just bought Nintendo stuff.

I do see how Cafe, with it's power roughly in line with PS3 and Xbox360 could manage some better ports of 3rd party games--like Call of Duty not being downgraded in any way, but I both see the support as slow to catch on, and quick to move away when the next Xbox and Playstation launch.  

I firmly believe there are still treasures to be found in the Xbox360 and PS3's respective hardware, but I'm not kidding myself--while I love that this generation has legs (and it should), the limits of both systems will become far more apparent within the next two years.  When Sony and Microsoft launch their next consoles, those limits will be left behind--except in Project Cafe--which will then be, last-gen tech.

Okay for the top part. For the last paragraph, again, time will tell. There is lots for us to learn still, but just logically I think it very unprobable that Nintendo would launch a platform that would be considered last gen for another 4 years, given their aggresive new stance on attracting the core.



padib said:
Resident_Hazard said:


I get your point on the Wii Music/Bully comparison.  And yes, crap movies do make money when good (even great) movies often barely eek by.  (I'm also formerly a pretty big movie nerd, but I've pretty much abandoned my movie-love and vastly increased my gaming hunger.)

I'm wary of comparing sales of PS2 games to GameCube, however, and usually would prefer to compare GameCube to Xbox which had very close overall sales numbers (with the Xbox leading by a mere couple million).  In that scenario, the Xbox still maintained better sales and support where 3rd party companies are concerned.

The Wii reaching 85 million should've been healthy for 3rd party devs but it still wasn't, except in rare cases.  Hit franchises still struggled on the system.  The casual audience doesn't seem to know a quality gaming experience from a throw-away iPhone app, so they didn't know to support, or expand to, what some of us would consider hardcore or "real" 3rd party video games.  And the Nintendo fans... as is typical, pretty much just bought Nintendo stuff.

I do see how Cafe, with it's power roughly in line with PS3 and Xbox360 could manage some better ports of 3rd party games--like Call of Duty not being downgraded in any way, but I both see the support as slow to catch on, and quick to move away when the next Xbox and Playstation launch.  

I firmly believe there are still treasures to be found in the Xbox360 and PS3's respective hardware, but I'm not kidding myself--while I love that this generation has legs (and it should), the limits of both systems will become far more apparent within the next two years.  When Sony and Microsoft launch their next consoles, those limits will be left behind--except in Project Cafe--which will then be, last-gen tech.

Okay for the top part. For the last paragraph, again, time will tell. There is lots for us to learn still, but just logically I think it very unprobable that Nintendo would launch a platform that would be considered last gen for another 4 years, given their aggresive new stance on attracting the core.

I don't think they're actually doing anything to attract a "core."  I'm really not even certain what that means, like, is Nintendo trying to convince hardcore gamers on the Xbox360 and PS3 that Cafe is worth a purchase?  Or are they just trying to appeal to their own personal "core" consumers?  

Surely by now they must know they'll never be a company that will appeal to serious gamers, as in, Nintendo will never be seen as the place for hardcore gaming.  Back on the SNES, they certainly were.  The GameCube tried to be a hardcore machine, but still sold below comptitors.  Hell, I think if the Dreamcast hadn't died early, it probably would've outsold the GameCube in the long run.  In two years, it managed to sell half what the GameCube took 5 years to do.

I don't think Nintendo does "logic."  There's zigging and zagging and then there's Nintendo.  We can't even call it "zogging."  It requires a weirder word.  Like "splortch" or something.  Zig, Zag, Splortch.  Cafe sounds like it's essentially in the same league, technologically, as the X360 and PS3.  I mean, if you don't think Nintendo would launch a system that would essentially be considered "last gen" for another four years, keep in mind that the DS, Wii, and even 3DS are largely "last-gen" technology.

I like the 3DS and it is powerful and all, but let's face it--it's core processor isn't that much more powerful than the PSP (with the exception that unlike the PSP, the 3DS has a GPU rather than running everything off the CPU).  Aside from the 3-D aspect, pretty much everything else the 3DS does isn't a revolutionary leap in any way.  Limited motion controls, gameplay involving the camera (PSP did it), the wi-fi, and touch-screen, etc.  It's damn near last-gen tech... for another four years or so.  



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Resident_Hazard said:

I don't think they're actually doing anything to attract a "core."  I'm really not even certain what that means, like, is Nintendo trying to convince hardcore gamers on the Xbox360 and PS3 that Cafe is worth a purchase?  Or are they just trying to appeal to their own personal "core" consumers?  

Surely by now they must know they'll never be a company that will appeal to serious gamers, as in, Nintendo will never be seen as the place for hardcore gaming.  Back on the SNES, they certainly were.  The GameCube tried to be a hardcore machine, but still sold below comptitors.  Hell, I think if the Dreamcast hadn't died early, it probably would've outsold the GameCube in the long run.  In two years, it managed to sell half what the GameCube took 5 years to do.

I don't think Nintendo does "logic."  There's zigging and zagging and then there's Nintendo.  We can't even call it "zogging."  It requires a weirder word.  Like "splortch" or something.  Zig, Zag, Splortch.  Cafe sounds like it's essentially in the same league, technologically, as the X360 and PS3.  I mean, if you don't think Nintendo would launch a system that would essentially be considered "last gen" for another four years, keep in mind that the DS, Wii, and even 3DS are largely "last-gen" technology.

I like the 3DS and it is powerful and all, but let's face it--it's core processor isn't that much more powerful than the PSP (with the exception that unlike the PSP, the 3DS has a GPU rather than running everything off the CPU).  Aside from the 3-D aspect, pretty much everything else the 3DS does isn't a revolutionary leap in any way.  Limited motion controls, gameplay involving the camera (PSP did it), the wi-fi, and touch-screen, etc.  It's damn near last-gen tech... for another four years or so.  

Splortch is funny because its the sound that something makes when it sinks into a mug of café.

I think your 3DS argument is spot on. The 3DS is aligned with their current core vision, and since it's almost last gen (as compared to portable PS products, not as compared to the usual portable Nintendo line) your point is very good. About the core, let me be more specific. Nintendo is going after the real core, not the Nintendo core. That's why they're looking to snag Rockstart games like GTA, which are very popular in that segment. That market is very important to them, as it is a very vocal crowd, and indicates the general coolness of a console (not its popularity mind you, but its popularity for a very vocal segment). As for Cafe, I believe its development began 2 years after 3DS, and so its vision is even more aligned with the aggressive core stance we learnt about. Then again, I'm basing myself off vision, and not off blueprints, so that's where I'm limited. But at least, my predictions are based on something for the most part, so I can stand on that for the time being.

Nintendo may not be the place to go for core or serious gamers immediately, but the direction is right, and they are a 20-year vision company (they've always said it), so I don't see a lost objective if they become a viable platform for core gamers within 2 or even 3 generations.



padib said:
Resident_Hazard said:

I don't think they're actually doing anything to attract a "core."  I'm really not even certain what that means, like, is Nintendo trying to convince hardcore gamers on the Xbox360 and PS3 that Cafe is worth a purchase?  Or are they just trying to appeal to their own personal "core" consumers?  

Surely by now they must know they'll never be a company that will appeal to serious gamers, as in, Nintendo will never be seen as the place for hardcore gaming.  Back on the SNES, they certainly were.  The GameCube tried to be a hardcore machine, but still sold below comptitors.  Hell, I think if the Dreamcast hadn't died early, it probably would've outsold the GameCube in the long run.  In two years, it managed to sell half what the GameCube took 5 years to do.

I don't think Nintendo does "logic."  There's zigging and zagging and then there's Nintendo.  We can't even call it "zogging."  It requires a weirder word.  Like "splortch" or something.  Zig, Zag, Splortch.  Cafe sounds like it's essentially in the same league, technologically, as the X360 and PS3.  I mean, if you don't think Nintendo would launch a system that would essentially be considered "last gen" for another four years, keep in mind that the DS, Wii, and even 3DS are largely "last-gen" technology.

I like the 3DS and it is powerful and all, but let's face it--it's core processor isn't that much more powerful than the PSP (with the exception that unlike the PSP, the 3DS has a GPU rather than running everything off the CPU).  Aside from the 3-D aspect, pretty much everything else the 3DS does isn't a revolutionary leap in any way.  Limited motion controls, gameplay involving the camera (PSP did it), the wi-fi, and touch-screen, etc.  It's damn near last-gen tech... for another four years or so.  

Splortch is funny because its the sound that something makes when it sinks into a mug of café.

I think your 3DS argument is spot on. The 3DS is aligned with their current core vision, and since it's almost last gen (as compared to portable PS products, not as compared to the usual portable Nintendo line) your point is very good. About the core, let me be more specific. Nintendo is going after the real core, not the Nintendo core. That's why they're looking to snag Rockstart games like GTA, which are very popular in that segment. That market is very important to them, as it is a very vocal crowd, and indicates the general coolness of a console (not its popularity mind you, but its popularity for a very vocal segment). As for Cafe, I believe its development began 2 years after 3DS, and so its vision is even more aligned with the aggressive core stance we learnt about. Then again, I'm basing myself off vision, and not off blueprints, so that's where I'm limited. But at least, my predictions are based on something for the most part, so I can stand on that for the time being.

Nintendo may not be the place to go for core or serious gamers immediately, but the direction is right, and they are a 20-year vision company (they've always said it), so I don't see a lost objective if they become a viable platform for core gamers within 2 or even 3 generations.

To be fair, I would really love Nintendo to be the center of gaming again.  Despite their cruelty to 3rd party companies on the NES, the industry thrived incredibly when the primary systems for all types of games were the NES and SNES (yes, the SNES shared that glory with Genesis).  

But I think they've been too long out of the mindsets of hardcore gamers.  I know that, myself, as a hardcore gamer, I found my Nintendo love wane immensely as I realized that the stuff I always want to play is on the Xbox360.  There was a reason I loved the GameCube, and that was because it was such a hardcore gamer system.  It had 3rd party support, it had multi-platform games, and hell, it even had excellent Dreamcast hold-overs like Ikaruga and Skies of Arcadia.  

The systems where sales and survival were overly dependent on Nintendo's core fanbase have never been favorites to me.  The N64 was the first time I purchased a non-Nintendo system (the Playstation), and this generation, besides my general game collecting hobby exploding, I pretty much abandoned the Wii for my Xbox360.  The Wii was dependent on casual money and Nintendo fans, as evidence by an obscene plethora of Mario games.  Cthulhu forbid they make something other than Mario for once.  They have RPG's and adventure games in their past.  Like Star Tropics and Mother/Earthbound.  Do they really need to fill that genre with more Mario stuff?  Seriously.

 

But we'll see.  Strong, though unproven rumors about the power of Cafe are one thing.  E3 will be another entirely.  If they really want core gamers and to jump-start the next generation, they can't be making a Playstation 3.1--they need to make a Playstation 4--before Sony makes a Playstation 4 (this is an analogy, by the way--I don't really expect Nintendo to make a system called Playstation. I know, it should be obvious, but I'm sure you know how people on the internet are).  

I'm pessimistic on Project Cafe right now, but I'm still a Nintendo fan and eager as hell for E3.  



Resident_Hazard said:

 Cthulhu forbid they make something other than Mario for once.  They have RPG's and adventure games in their past.  Like Star Tropics and Mother/Earthbound.  Do they really need to fill that genre with more Mario stuff?  Seriously.

(this is an analogy, by the way--I don't really expect Nintendo to make a system called Playstation. I know, it should be obvious, but I'm sure you know how people on the internet are).  

I'm pessimistic on Project Cafe right now, but I'm still a Nintendo fan and eager as hell for E3.  

Did you mean Splortchu forbid? Yeah I know what you mean about the misunderstanding thing.

I made a post on the Mario reuse thing (in the 2nd paragraph), I think it explains how Nintendo's made good use of its IPs, but I do agree that in other areas Nintendo just slaps Mario onto things, and that is a fact. But it's not the whole picture either, which is a problem when that's all one sees. It's not the full picture, so seeing only that is not real. It's defintely non-deniable, but its not the Cthulhu, if you know what I mean.

As for eager, light up your lighter my collecting friend, and wave your arms cause E3 is comin' faster than you can count! :D

EDIT: Oh, I wanted to say, I agree with not liking some of the recent Nintendo stuff (I'm talking 1st party), I prefer their older work, but do enjoy some of the newer stuff too, like Metroid Prime and Wind Waker, and TP was good, I'm also was huge SSB Melee fan. Trace Memory looks good, and so does Endless Ocean. But yeah they have some nice new ideas too, but not really my thing most of the time. Anyway, I'm finding it hard to play that many games, and I buy most second hand, so Nintendo platforms are still a good choice at the moment. I'll probably get Cafe, cause I see lots of potential, but I wouldn't go without a Playstation 3 if I could afford more consoles right now. Funny trend for me, I have a PS2 and a 3DS, and soon I'll have a Cafe and a PS3 :), and maybe an NGP, we'll see. (Not calling it Pita just yet)



This is common sense.  Do people really believe the company waits till 6-12 months before launch to decide they want to build a new console?!  Get real!  Also, 10 yr lifespan for PS3/360 doesnt mean we wont see PS4/Xbox 3 for 10 yrs from their predecessors.



PREDICTIONS:
(Predicted on 5/31/11) END of 2011 Sales - Xbox 360 = 62M;  PS3 = 59M;  Wii = 97M