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Forums - Sales Discussion - Next Gen wont be as succesful as this one

i dont know but i hated the fact that 80% of the game companys from the ps1 and ps2 area couldn't make the transitition to hd really sad :(



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9087 said:

Think about it.

 

This gen brought us a huge focus on HD. Many people purchased HD TV's for the first time, and wanted a system that could play in HD.

This gen also brought us an extremely rare "fad" known as the Nintendo Wii that was comparable to the Tickle Me Elmo craze. I highly doubt any of the 3 manufacturers strike gold like that any time soon.

It's also the first real gen where Online Gaming really took off across all the platforms. I expect an improvement from Nintendo next gen, but for the most part, Online has been maxed out on it's potential. The entire Fighting genre was re-born on consoles with large thanks to online play. SFIV and MK would only be fun for 10 minutes if it werent for online. It also made games like CoD mega popular due to the multiplayer aspect. But it's getting old at this point and there is a lack of variety in online games now.

 

I just don't see room for much growth next gen. Nothing "new" to entice gamers. 3D had potential but I just don't see it taking off the way HDTV's did.

 

Next Gen will see the smallest improvement of any generation leap, and lower sales than the current gen.

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scottie said:

We know nothing about the next generation consoles, apart from a vague release timeframe for Cafe, and some wild speculation as to what form the console will take. Yet despite those handicaps, it is apparently obvious that because oneVGChartz user can't think of ways to entice more customers, none of these multi-billion dollar companies can figure out ways to do it? 

 

Growth Areas

1) The new market that the Wii struck. This market is big enough to support a huge number of games and platforms, from Wii, to DS to Kinect and Move. The only thing required to get these people to buy a new console is new games to play on it. 

 

2) Developing Markets - China, India, Brazil etc have a huge potential for increase, as does a large portion of Europe still.

 

3) Continued growth of the core market - this has been a pattern seen in every generation so far. This generation has already seen a massive jump in sales of core games over the previous, which in turn is much higher than the PS1 generation

 

The reason you have reached such a conclusion is because you started with incorrect assumptions. These are;

1) The assumption that high definition had any effect on this generation.

2) The assumption that the combined wisdom of thousands of experts in their field, spending 40 hour weeks on such a question, have not thought of anything you did not in about 1 minute of thinking.

3) The assumption that online multiplayer is somehow objectively better than local multiplayer. This is just one of the reasons why you are unable to grasp the success of the Wii.

4) The belief that old franchises are dying out and not being replaced. About the only large franchise that has died this generation is Guitar Hero. In contrast, look at the Wii xxx, Nintendogs, Professor Layton, Killzone, littlebigplanet franchises - all brand new this gen and are now huge. Additionally, titles such as Monster Hunter and Call of Duty were fairly small last gen, and have seen incredible growth in this gen.

Ok I think you covered all of it. I'm going with what he said.



Hey, I got 2 people quoting me and agreeing :) How nice

 

@ Troll Whisperer - I always forget AC was only from this gen, for some reason I always think it was from last. I'm sure I missed other big franchises too, I'll admit I mostly focussed on Wii franchises because that's the console I keep most informed about the games. This gen has seen some huge increases in software sales.

 

Also - @ liquidninja - 31 42 48 52 shows a clear increasing trend to me, and that's even just for America - most of the growth these last 2 gens, and likely this next gen has/will been/be from Others



@d21lLewis

Sorry, the embed code doesn't seem to work try this link or that youtube video killeryoshi posted: http://www.ign.com/videos/2005/11/04/reggie-speaks-at-the-gamers-summit-part-1

@scottie

Those are just the raw numbers which don't take into consideration the external factors like population growth and duplicated ownership. None of the growth is coming from increased interest in games or game consoles. If you don't want to watch the video read the little transcript I posted: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=85766



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RolStoppable said:

You have a very strange idea of how this current generation has played out. But anyway.

Next generation won't see growth in developed markets, because Nintendo doesn't care anymore and Sony and Microsoft are incapable of it even if they wanted to.


Wow just looking for an arguement there 



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Tis what was said every gen by people

But the next one always kept getting bigger.



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liquidninja said:

@d21lLewis

Sorry, the embed code doesn't seem to work try this link or that youtube video killeryoshi posted: http://www.ign.com/videos/2005/11/04/reggie-speaks-at-the-gamers-summit-part-1

@scottie

Those are just the raw numbers which don't take into consideration the external factors like population growth and duplicated ownership. None of the growth is coming from increased interest in games or game consoles. If you don't want to watch the video read the little transcript I posted: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=85766

1) As I said, the growth recently has not come from America, it has come from others. It will still come from others next gen.

 

2) So what if the growth is due to population growth or not, I suspect all throughout next generation in America, the population will continue to increase, and thus there will still be growth, unlike as predicted in the OP.



@scottie

Well, that kind of growth will only increase if the external trends are increased. Now imagine if the opposite were to happen. Such as a population decrease, economic downturn, no new terrirories to expand to, or less gamers from the previouse generation feeding into adult video game customers.



liquidninja said:

Some of you have this false impression of the video game industy growing for the past few generations but try factoring in external trends like: Population Growth, Territory expansion, Economic expansion, or the previous generations of gamers growing up to have more money to put into gaming.

In 2005, shortly before the 7th gen began, Reggie Fils-Aimé gave a more realistic picture of the video game market since the 8bit generation:

This slide says it all. U.S. Household Penetration (the white line) has been stuck at around 30%. And this only factors in population growth and duplicated ownership.

 


Statistically speaking this is a rather poor argument since the population tends to increase at an exponential rate. Not too mention that its rediculous to expect the % of housholds who own a videogame console  to go up much more than 50%.

Videogame market is expanding tremendously. That's a fact.