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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii now 10m ahead of PS3 - putting this into context / future predictions

@Mummelman

1:100? I'd like to see a source for that.  I'd guess that it could be true for some cherry-picked benchmark, but not in general performance.



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DOATS1 said:

i dont think that wii is a "casual" machine. i just think the games are. if they wanted to, they could release a blood filled fps on the wii. but that wouldnt make it as casual. anyway my point is. the casual games wont be its downfall, as all they will do is release more casual games. to keep the casual market interested.

"Nintendo isn't just IN this industry. Nintendo IS this (handheld) industry."

fixed.

just remember. sony have released two consoles and have racked up 200million + total unit sales. nobody has sparked the industry like sony have. its because of sony, that ms decided to join. its because of sony, that nintendo got off their lazy asses and captured the industry back again. and it will be because of nintendo, that sony increase the competition next time round. and yes nintendo are the heavyweights, but nintendo dont make the industry. competition makes the industry.


I think what johnlucas meant by "Nintendo IS this industry" is that Nintendo is the one who has been innovating and bringing new things to consoles even when it wasn't winning. 

Nintendo has introduced almost every standard found in modern controllers.  D-pad:  Nintendo.  Diamond-pattern face buttons:  Nintendo.  Shoulder buttons:  Nintendo.  Thumbstick:  Nintendo.  Trigger-like button:  Nintendo.  Rumble:  Nintendo.  Now, with the DS and Wii, the pace has only increased.

Note that I do not claim that Nintendo necessarily invented every one of these control innovations, but they were always the first to incorporate them into a console's standard controller.  The others copied Nintendo!  Also, Nintendo should really get credit above for wireless control, but the Wavebird doesn't count as "a console's standard controller". 

(With a track record like this, no wonder not all of their design choices pan out 100%.  The tri-pronged N64 controller wasted space, since only two of them could be practically used at once.  The uniquely-shaped, radially-positioned face buttons of the Gamecube weren't adopted by any of the next generation of consoles, although I would bet that if Nintendo hadn't gone with a revolutionary new design it would have built on that pattern.  Interestingly, I can't think of any abject failures in Nintendo's control schemes -- quite a feat for a perennial trailblazer.)

So in this way Nintendo truly has been at the forefront of this industry even in their darkest years, always paving the way for the next generation in a way that I don't think Sony ever really did.  (Sega actually did a great deal of innovating, and MS has its one great achievement in XBL.)



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Stats87 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
muffdiver11 said:
you forgot to mention that the Wii launched for $350 less than the ps3 (600-250= 350) Thats the difference right there. As technology costs are lowered, the price of the PS3 will be lowered.

lol you really think price is the reason Wii is selling so well?


 

So if the Wii cost $600 it would have sold just as well? Or if the PS3 cost $250, sales wouldn't be higher?


 You think the PS3 would have Blu-ray and its graphics power at $250?  Not a chance, you think Wii would be the same machine at $600?  Again not a chance



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

FireWater said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
muffdiver11 said:
you forgot to mention that the Wii launched for $350 less than the ps3 (600-250= 350) Thats the difference right there. As technology costs are lowered, the price of the PS3 will be lowered.

lol you really think price is the reason Wii is selling so well?


I think thats one reasonable cause yes.


 Here's a more reasonable cause,  games



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

MrPickles said:
^^You would be foolish not to think it is one of the factors--as much as I love the Wii, I wouldn't have paid $500 for it. That said, it's like saying that 'well, the 360 has only sold more because of the headstart' or 'but the PS2 only sold well because it was $100 cheaper than Dreamcast'. All are valid points, but since when did having an advantage become a disadvantage? Should we take away half the PS1's sales because it was 'cheaper' than the N64?

 It wouldn't be the same machine at $500, so you can't say that, the reason Wii sells so well even when the 360 is only $30 more is because of the games



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Wii-will-rock-you. lol always wanted to say that.



"Like you know"

Mummelmann said:

Remember that last gen, the PS2 was not only 1:100 in terms of power compared to the others, but the Wii is. Anyway; as I've said countless times before, I have precious little faith in the prolonged interest in a product from the most unstable of all buyers; the casuals. This group of people have been known to embrace a new "gadget" and give it near legendary sales, only to abandon it shortly after. Anyone targeting this audience better have a very decisive and longterm plan to keep them hooked. It seems that Nintendo is going to give us more of what they've already done, whcih will quickly grow old for people who change their wardrobe, cellphones or "gadgetry" on a nearly monthly basis.

It's showing in the sales of "core" games just how big a percentage of Wii owners are casuals, and they seem to have little to no interest in these titles (SMG, MP). This will continue as long as the core audience shies away, so the top notch 1st party games will not get the attention they possibly deserve, which in turn will deter 3rd parties from investing too much into titles they know won't sell on that platform. So 98% of game library will be the same kind of simple games that casuals seem to like, which won't be nearly varied or entertaining enough longterm to keep their technological wanderlust at bay.

This is how the casuals act and think; shortterm and right now. 2 years from now, the Wii will be old news, much like the Nokia 3200 or Sony Ericsson W800i is now. Don't fancy casuals treat consoles the same as cellphones? Well, they're "fashion technophiles", embracing and doting on a piece of gadgetry until it is no longer cool, at which point they toss it out or otherwise discard it.

There are core gamers as well who buy the Wii, but they seem to prefer either a PS3, 360 or simply a PC (like me).

This is why I feel that the Wii has little staying power, and also why I think that Nintendo will be the first to launch a new console next gen.

Okay, there it is; go ahead Avinash, take it away. We're all dying to hear your opinion again.


 Well I am starting from the top:

No the PS2 wasn't as weak compared to the compition as the Wii is. The problem is that the casual games that I speak about doesn't need that much power. Singstar has more or less been selling PS2:s here in sweden since day one. I say that Nintendo is giving a lot of new stuff just aimed for the casual (the whole Wii line more or less) and feeding us the hardcore with the same old.

When it comes to the sales of the core games I just wanted to say that SMG sold during the first month what SMS sold during the first 4 months in USA (all according to NPD). Heavy advertisment from Nintendos side in Japan comparing NSMB with SMG seems to have given some results and SMG seems to be able to beat out SMS LTD.

98% of the games might be for casuals but if Nintendo continue to invest in both software and hardware (Wii fit board, Wii Zapper) the casuals might stay but continue to upgrade their hardware. We could also make an comparsion with the DS, why do it still sell so great if casuals were feed up and wanting something new?

When it comes to when Nintendo will launch their new consol I would like to say that the Wii will be out for a minimum of 5 years. I do also belive that neither PS3 or Xbox360 can afford to give Nintendo 5 years of headstart.



 

 

Buy it and pray to the gods of Sigs: Naznatips!

stranne said:

@Mummelman

1:100? I'd like to see a source for that. I'd guess that it could be true for some cherry-picked benchmark, but not in general performance.


 Even if that would be true I can truly say that it doesn't show. Gears of War is not a hundred times more goodlooking than Super Mario Galaxy.



dlundh

Fair and Balanced - Casual Gamer Extraordinaire

I see it largely as a matter of momentum. Wii has great momentum in all 3 territories, and that is only going to increase (especially when they finally launch in China/India and other places). It's sales will continue to increase year over year for at least the next 2 years.

PS3 has momentum in Others only. 360 has momentum in NA only. So in those areas they should see sales increase next year. In other areas where they are lacking momentum, they will remain flat or fall as people goto the system(s) that all their friends are getting. When spending large amounts of cash, people like to back the winning horse.

And as far as this argument that casuals will jump ship, that is ridiculous and holds no water whatsoever when looking at other systems that were popular with the casual crowd (Atari 2600, NES, PS2). It's the technophiles that jump onto the so-called 'next big thing' first, not the casuals. Did all the casuals owning PS2s jump onto the xbox's bandwagon? No. They remained with the PS2. Now who went to the xbox? Hardcore.

To look at it from another perspective, the only true system that reflects the Wii is the DS. Is that losing marketshare/sales after 3 years? Ah... no. It's gaining them. Is Nintendogs old and boring now for casuals? Ah... no it's still in the freaking top 10!! With over 115k sales in a week. How? Why? Simple. Casual market is 10x the size of harcore and more loyal. Wii isn't in any danger of losing their market to PS3/360 ever in this generation and will have PS2 legs next generation too, despite growing competition (more players) entering the market.

But none of this means that the PS3 and 360 can't also be thriving successful systems in their own right. The market is big enough (and growing) to support all.