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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii now 10m ahead of PS3 - putting this into context / future predictions

As of this week, the Wii is now 10m ahead of the PS3. Its a pretty incredible statistic, given that both consoles were launched at (roughly) the same time - just over a year ago.

On average, the Wii has been outselling the PS3 by 770k per month (over 13 months).

This also comes to 180k per week, or 25k per day.

...

The PS3 has also had 4(?) models released during the period, with 2(?) price cuts, a new colour in Japan, a new controller (etc).

The Wii has had a few software bundles (usually retailer driven) and severe hardware shortages.

...

Software has also been telling. As much as people like to think the PS3 had "no" big releases in its first year, the following titles were released on the system - several of them in the "AAA" class:

 - Gundam, Dynasty Warriors, HotShotGolf, Gran Turismo, LAIR, Heavenly Sword, Uncharted, R&C, Resistance, Motorstorm, Assassins Creed, Call of Duty, Guitar Hero, Rockband, Sonic, Fifa, PES, etc... 

 

The Wii has also had its share of "AAA" titles, although several of the mega-sellers for the year were less than expected. In many ways, the Wii has had a weaker lineup (although more titles released for it in general):

 - WiiSports, WiiFit, WiiPlay, Zelda:TP, Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime:C, Dragon Quest:Swords, Mario & Sonic, Mario Party, Pokemon, Rayman, Red Steel, etc...

...

In conclusion - I can't see any real reason why the Wii wouldn't have a considerably better year in '08 than it did in '07. The PS3 will also have a better year than in '07, but I think the Wii will continue to outpace the PS3 - at an increased rate.

I would expect the Wii to hit a 20m lead over the PS3 by around October/November '08 - possibly earlier if Ninty can sort out their production issues earlier.



Gesta Non Verba

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Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

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Yeah Sony has pulled out nearly all the stops to try and catch the Wii but without much effect, the Nintendo on the other hand has most of their bullets left



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Something else interesting to note is that the Median weekly sales number for the three consoles are as follows:

PS3 - 92,622
360 - 96,302
Wii - 255,447

For those wondering the "median" is simply the 50th percentile, or in lamen terms if you make a list of all the weekly sales numbers and sort them from lowest to highest it is the value in the middle of the list.

The mean sales are as follows for those interested:


PS3 - 142,522
360 - 143,963
Wii - 324,927



To Each Man, Responsibility

LAIR and Sonic for the PS3 were garbage and flopped in sales, they had plenty of big releases but many failed to sell.



I think it's clear the Wii will win this generation, however I believe what will be very telling about the second and third placings is the events immediately preceding the next Xbox 360 price cut.



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LET'S GO NINTY!!! Ramp up your production another 700k per month already. GRRRR! You will for sure top 50m by end of '08 and also be ahead of X360 by 23m and the PS3 by over 30m....EASILY! DO IT! DO IT NOW!



WiiFit will be 2008 #1 selling game in NORTH AMERICA!  
End of '08 Predictions: Wii - 48m X360 - 25m  PS3 - 19m
Wii monthly NA sales will top 400k every month in '08. *Jan sales ruined it. Grrrr!*
WiiFit will top 1m in sales in its first month of release in North America.
MGS4 will NOT be released in '08. *Darn it!* FF13 will NOT be released in '08.
Rockband Wii will top 600k in first month sales in North America.
WiiFit will pass the PS3 WW sales by Xmas '09.

you forgot to mention that the Wii launched for $350 less than the ps3 (600-250= 350) Thats the difference right there. As technology costs are lowered, the price of the PS3 will be lowered.



muffdiver11 said:
you forgot to mention that the Wii launched for $350 less than the ps3 (600-250= 350) Thats the difference right there. As technology costs are lowered, the price of the PS3 will be lowered.

 lol you really think price is the reason Wii is selling so well?



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

muffdiver11 said:
you forgot to mention that the Wii launched for $350 less than the ps3 (600-250= 350) Thats the difference right there. As technology costs are lowered, the price of the PS3 will be lowered.

Look at how much the PS2 sold due to the numerous price cuts it got. Cheaper consoles also benefit greatly from price cuts, and I'm sure that Nintendo will cut the Wii's price as soon as it's necessary to increase demand. Don't expect it any time soon though, it will more likely happen in 2009 or 2010 than in 2008.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

^^You would be foolish not to think it is one of the factors--as much as I love the Wii, I wouldn't have paid $500 for it. That said, it's like saying that 'well, the 360 has only sold more because of the headstart' or 'but the PS2 only sold well because it was $100 cheaper than Dreamcast'. All are valid points, but since when did having an advantage become a disadvantage? Should we take away half the PS1's sales because it was 'cheaper' than the N64?