i'll be surprised if it releases in 2012 or 13

id prefer it at least 2014

there are alot of games coming out or about to come out that take advantage of the HD consoles that we havent really seen in the past crysis, brink, rage, BF3, gears3, uncharted 3 ect.

also i doubt that MS would just rap up the 360 like that i mean loads of people spent $300 on the 250gb console and $150 on kenict not even a year ago.  what will these people say if the HDD equipped 360 gets priced at what $99 or $150 next year?

there are still very big AAA games that have yet to be released next GTA another Halo, Gears 3, MW3 and BF3 i doubt that the gen will just end right after these monumental games have released 

i dont doubt that the console EA gots is in fact next gen tech at all i believe thats why they were so quick to deny it dont want current costumers to stop supporting current gen HW and SW its probably just a rough draft of the next gen there just playing around with atm

Xbox 360 will definitely recoup the losses of itself by the end of the year, and since we are unlikely to see its successor this year, reasonably Holiday 2012 is the earliest we will see it, so thats another year of profits to offset Xbox 1.

But, it would be smart to point out, the only reason it took MS 6 years to break even on Xbox 360 is because the venture cost them 3 billion (2 billion on losses, 1.1billion on rrod) and they didn't have a profitable platform to help cushion the brunt of the damage. Now they do, and it's best to do that while the system is at its peak. Leave it too late like Sony and the PS2 and there won't be enough profit to cover the new console.

Either they anounce it this E3 or the next. Kinect would have been on the market for 2 years, and microsoft already made some profit with these sales numbers (I think).

agreed

I think their annouce the xbox tri , yes i dont call it 720 i like the tri lol but anyways i think their show it off next month  aka just like project natal at e3 09 and came out over a year and half later .... so i think microsoft will show it off  next month with a november  2012 launch

NO 2014 not 2012 >:(

I've read elsewhere that Xbox and X360 both launched in Nov, I think Nov 2014 is unlikely. But Nov 2013 is virtually 2014 anyway. So I'm backing Nov 2013 unless MS changes it's launch policy and goes for Q1 2014.But I reckon that would put 720 and PS4 head to head for 2014 as their first holidays. I don't see 720 and PS4 launching for the same holidays. There's too much cross ownership and I just KNOW a lot of people who buy 720 for holiday 2013 will buy PS4 for holiday 2014.

Somehow I doubt that MS started 3 studios to work on kinect so they can turn around and release a new console next year, they may tease it at this E3 but it won't launch until 2013...

Agree, a 2012 launch wouldn't make sense for MS and even less for Sony, as both PS3 and XB360 are enjoying a second youth in their mid-life, but just announcing their next consoles when Ninty launches Wii2, or anyway during its first months of life, if at launch it's too early, would make a lot of sense for both, if the launch is planned for 2013. Announcing this year would just be a "me too", it wouldn't affect Wii2's sales as much, and what's worst, it would kill XB360 or PS3 sales too early, forcing them to drop price more than planned for this year, or cut twice in a row, and start targeting the low-end even before their successors arrive.

Based on what is said in this thread one would think there was no advantage to launching sooner rather then later. That is simply not the case. Microsoft gained a lot of advantages from their early launch window this generation. Being first let Microsoft have complete control over their pricing and manufacturing. Gave them an established base of consumers that ensured support in spite of later competition. They even controlled the third party developer learning curve. They became the default format for high definition games. That gave them more games and preferential launches. 

Basically the strategy worked it allowed Microsoft not only to be more profitable. This allowed them to have a strategic edge in controlling the situation to not only their benefit, but the very real detriment of Sony. Which is their long term strategic goal. They want to make the console market so unattractive to Sony that they will concede it to Microsoft. They actually would have Sony where they want them if they launch sooner. Launching later actually helps Sony to reverse the trend that might push them out.

Microsoft launching the console by the end of next year will mean that Sony has to do one of the following. Match them in the launch. Which not only means truncating the PS3, but that the loss lead on the next console would cover any profits being made by the PS3 at that point. Launch later which runs the chance of repeating this generation all over again. Launch later but as profit out of the box. Which is basically conceding hardware parity with Microsoft.

All three scenarios benefit Microsoft. All three scenarios cost Sony something. A early launch keeps Sony from following their own business strategy. People forget how dire the straights were for Sony early this generation. Their console was a money pit the first year, and Sony kept pouring cash in to keep it afloat. That is probably something that would be fairly interesting to Microsoft. They could be in a position to shove Sony off the ledge. In fact this may be their best chance to do just that. Now that they are very profitable it probably means they will have the resources to be even more aggressive in the next round.

So I would say yes it is fairly likely Microsoft will unveil and launch next year.