Yes, I do. Between sampling the embedded software, seeing much of the launch lineup, reading the Iwata Asks segments, and most importantly observing both the market's reaction to the system and Nintendo's reaction to the market, I believe we can begin to draw conclusions.

Now, things may change in the future, as Nintendo shifts course to compensate for the market reaction. This (last?) generation we saw both handhelds undergo course corrections: neither the DS nor the PSP ended the generation emphasizing the same software that they'd emphasized at their launches, and in both cases the market reacted more favorably post-adjustment. I expect/hope we're going to see something similar with the 3DS.

I think you're being too pessimistic about the 3DS. A lot of people are complaining that the 3DS isn't performing up to par, but it's not starting out a lot worse than what the DS did.

Look at the 2004 holiday season in Americas, from when the DS launched. That's the first 6 weeks.

Gameboy Advance: 2318k
DS: 1463k
Playstation 2: 1252k
Xbox: 1238k
Gamecube: 843k

If you look at the 3DS opening 5 weeks, these are the sales.

 3DS: 861k
X360: 348k
DS: 284k
Ps3: 259k
(etc)

And if you're very worried about the 3DS' legs, here are the original DS' sales from week 6-10 (Americas)

Week 6: 79,750
Week 7:  49,448
Week 8: 39,667
Week 9: 34,687
Week 10: 35,737

For the full year up to the holiday season (start of November, week 6-50), it averaged 30,000 a week.

In EMEAA, the 3DS launched in a period which is a bit easier to compare the DS to. It launched at March 12th. Time to make a chart comparison of DS vs 3DS week by week.

From week 10 to the start of the holiday season, the DS sold 1,015,000 units. Or nearly 40,000 per week.

So, here's the question. Does the 3DS have a chance of making 70,000/week combined across Americas and EMEAA? I'd say it definitely does. I'd put it to more likely be ahead than below that number.

Second question. Does the 3DS selling as much as the DS started out to do mean it's a large success? No. It doesn't. It does, however, mean that this isn't some ridiculously large, horrible misstep by Nintendo. It's starting out close to exactly as well as their last handheld did. That handheld went on to become the best selling video game machine of all time.

I really don't think the time to worry is upon us quite yet.

Ya they are waiting for some decent games to play so get your ass on it. If not there will be some serious 3D-saster