for the sake of the thread, the ps3 will pull ahead around holiday 2012.  i dont see how it matters much though, all three consoles have done extremely well this gen.

like thismeintiel said, what is microsoft going to do to stop the gap?  i mean other than gears 3, they dont have any huge games to boost hw sales, and despite kinect's magnificient launch, it is losing its legs.  the ps3 has been putting up steady numbers and with its strong line up of games for the next 12ish months, its going to continue that trend.

The same question could be asked as 'what can Sony do to decrease the gap?'

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That's a pretty bad argument really. OK then...

On average, Sony are taking 50k a week out of Microsoft. However, I expect Microsoft to have a price-cut first, so that they'll have the 360-kinect bundle at the same price as the 360 used to be. I reckon this will increase sales WW by around 150k, therefore increasing it's lead by 100k a week. So after a couple months, the damage would have been undone. 

Of course, Sony can fight back, but who's to say they won't continue slipping as well? They are massively down YoY, despite a flurry of new games, new features, massive advertising, Move and a slim version. So Sony can quite easily surrender that lead and make the gap much closer. 

The holiday period will be interesting. No doubt it will be won by the Wii by a couple of million, but it will be close between PS360. So no real difference there.

At the end of the year, I say the Wii will have grown 3mil ahead of Sony, and sony will have grown 1.5mil ahead of Microsoft. The same Sony-Microsoft gap will occur next year, but the Wii's advantage will be cut to only 1.5mil as well. 

Then the new wave of hardware will be released, and if Sony markets the PS3 well as the 'budget choice' for next gen, there's no reason why it can't have anohter 7-10mil sales after the next gen has started.

We'll see. The gap may close earlier, or not at all. We'll have to see the actual figures from the big three next week before we're certain...

The XBox 720 and Wii 2 will most likely be launched in 2013. No one will care much about last gen numbers after that happens.

It will seriously depend on the price cuts and the software that is released in the next 2-3 years on whether the PS3 catches the 360 or not. The PS3 has the edge mainly because of Japan. Without Japan sales are pretty much even.

Sony may be down YOY, but they are still outselling the 360, which is up YOY.  You also have to factor in that Q1 '10 was greatly boosted by the PS3 Slim launching Sept of the previous year.  Plus, the fact that Sony is now making more profit on every PS3 compared to last year, and probably making more money than last year, I'm sure Sony is just fine with their sales. 

But, I think the biggest thing to look at is actually the fact that despite a new 360 model and the successful Kinect launch, MS is still selling less than Sony.  If MS does cut the price of the 360, it will only be by $50, and Kinect bundles will still remian $100 more than that, or $349 for the Elite Kinect Bundle.  I'm kinda doubting they will slash the 4G 360 by much ($10-$15), if they slash it at all.  But whatever they do, I doubt Sony will let them go unanswered for even a month.  They will most likely have a $50 price cut of their own within a couple of weeks.  A price cut that no doubt will help them more than a cut for the 360 would.

I do agree that Sony should be able to cut the PS3/360 by ~1.5 mil by the end of the year.  Maybe even 2 mil if Sony sees another good holiday season like in '09.  Which would bring the gap to ~900K-1.4M.  Shipped, of course.  Like you said, though, we'll have to what for fiscal numbers in the coming week/s to determine fully where it goes from here.

If you ask me, Sony spent this generation doing a phenomenal job showing that they'll always have great first party/exclusive support. Even if they don't sell more consoles, I think that the PS3 was a big win for them regardless. They're going to have great profits with their next console, and even more great games.

This generation is a loss for Microseft; next generation is gonna be tough for them, when Sony and Nintendo have competitively priced products and superior software. Considering their massive lead (and the amount of money they have), they needed to do a better job of expanding and getting their hands on talented dev studios. People are more loyal to Xbox Live than they are to the games, what will happen when their competitors match the online experience?