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How much will this earthquake and tsunami effect Japanese economy?

Forums - General Discussion - How much will this earthquake and tsunami effect Japanese economy?

We all know Japan has one great economy, one of the best in the world (top 3-5?) But how good will their economy be after all daage is ficed from tsunami and other natural disasters? Surely the the price for all the damage will be sky high, but will it really effect Japanese economy that much? They are pretty wealthy country.



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not much in the long run. unless there are power shortages or something like that



This is going to have massive effects on the Japanese economy for the coming years, remember that the Japanese economy was in a pretty dire state before the event.

Japan will see electricity shortages (also, it's going to be a hell of a lot harder for Japan to build new nuclear plants in the future, due to local opposition... which has its own problems, as Japan will be forced to stick with more fossil fuels, which, of course, have ever-rising prices), the supply chain has been completely ruined, billions of corporate and consumer assets have been lost, massive destruction to infra-structure, not to mention the loss of life - not to be cold, but each working life lost results in slightly less work in the economy.

And the worst could yet to come - if there is any major radiation leak, it could render parts of Japans already limited space completely uninhabitable for many, many years.



actually Japan's economy won't be hit nearly as hard, because Japan's largest (and almost only) asset is it's hi-tech industry/ top of the line research and that was largely spared from any damage

after the devastating Kobe quake in '95 Japan's economy recovered very quickly

the "beyond design basis accident" happening in Fukushima right now realistically won't influence Japan's energy politics much (especially not nearly as much as Germany's), as in Japan there is little alternatives to it (the country has no natural resources) and the population is very pro nuclear power

the current situation will surely be blamed on the fact that the affected reactors are 40 years old and they will manage to communicate that this "could never happen in newer reactors"



Doesn't Japan have a public debt of 200% or something similar?  That's sure to increase.

Though, one could argue that it isn't as much as a problem as debt in other nations as the debt is largely owned by the Japanese people, rather than by foreign countries, hence any interest stays within the Japanese economy.




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Negative quarter or two due to the initial adverse impact from the losses and shock from the tsunami on the Japanese economy. Japan GDP should shrink for a quarter or two but it will recover as it rebuilds. 

Huge test for a fully integrated global economy that tends to over react to every single world event. Share markets worldwide should fall for a quarter but rally in second half of the year as the global economy recovers. 



From what I've heard their economy will definatly take a hit. their factories are all destroyed and so has their infastructure. Plus they will get into some major debt from rebuilding their infastructure.



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Joelcool7 said:

From what I've heard their economy will definatly take a hit. their factories are all destroyed and so has their infastructure. Plus they will get into some major debt from rebuilding their infastructure.

?

No? They had to shut many of their plants down, but that was largely a precautionary measure or due to the electrical problems. Once they get rid of the blackouts, they'll be fine. Their infrastructure is also fine outside of electrical



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