I'm scared to think about it but perhaps they really are preparing the launch of a new console (which would of course support Kinect). Then again Microsoft doesn't have a lot of 1st party developers so perhaps it can simply be explained by the fact that we've had Fable 3 and Reach last year and Forza 4 is coming this year. The only other Microsoft studios I know of worked on Kinect stuff.
True, but in my opinion its not a new console coming, thats still far off i think. Probably 2 years. I think your second point is the more correct one, their 1st party is just too freaking small. They need to expand and focus on more things than just Kinect, to me its a mistake only focusing on that cause it limits the consumers.