step 1 - realize that all "facts" i bring to this thread are ancedocal and therefore inheritly flawed - but whatevz. xD

so here are my basic observations:

• pretty much all last month ps3 had a $50 discount in the USA
• i personally haven't seen a non-kinect 360 in the wild this year
• i checked the interwebz and found that non-kinect 360's are either:  sold out, backordered, or bundeled with other crap to inflate the price
• kinect bundeled 360s are $300 and $400 just like the ps3 options.

which leads me to the conclusion that the 360 is outselling the ps3 WW at an higher average price.  so while really any console can do things like price-cuts to stimulate sales -- the 360 sneaked its way (and i'm not sure how to say this) earlier position on the life-cycle curve.

in other words -- 360 to peter out on its sales cycle after ps3 despite having a year lead on the market thanks to kinect?

well anyways -- i probably killed my own thread by posting before i was done posting but eh, what can you do.  my basic thought is now posted.

I would say MAYBE.  Its too early to tell at the moment but I work for Gamestop and you are right, there is virtually zero stock on 360's without Kinect in NA so it currently is selling around a similar price point. 

I think given the success of Kinect the 360 could certainly be on market as long or longer than the PS3, but MS has to continue to bring compelling software to the the Kinect, that will be the key.

thanks for the additional brick in the foundation of my ancedocal wall.  xD

i guess in my head, i was just thinking that the $50 gift card deals going round didn't seem to do much if anything for the ps3.  i'm starting to think that if the ps3 was $200 and $300 to the 360s $300 and $400 that the 360 would still be right on par with the ps3.   but yeah, a few more weeks of data would help a lot.

The best future-proofing is a large, active user base, so yes. I do think so.

Hell no, 360 has a dvd drive even if it's selling well now in a few months when kinect dies down it will drop in sales and ps3 isn't down much in sales yoy at all, I really don't see how you can even think that and 360 still has the 200 model so it's not outselling ps3 at a higher price range and there are plenty of bundles and deals on 360 too not to mention everything you said is limited to the USA not even all of NA worldwide is a totally different story 

well, as i said and had at least one reaffirmation of -- the non-kinect bundle is really hard to find.

so it is an assumption that i'm making but i doubt someone who didn't want a kinect would be a $100 premium on a $2-300 console.  so there is probably some pent of demand there i'd imagine.

i kind of doubt that the 360 numbers will go up from where they are now but i wouldn't be surprised to see the wii/ps3 numbers decline as we move into the normal summer lull while the 360 numbers stay relatively flat.

It's kinda funny actually.

Prior to the Kinect bundles the 360 was the cheapest option at $199 (before the Wii price drop) and a lot of Sony fans said that the more expensive console was selling just as well. But now when you factor in people buying Arcades with the Kinect ($300) and the expensive 250gig with Kinect ($400) I'd say the playing field is more even, and that Microsoft is doing better as the higher priced console - especially when you factor in $60 a year for live and people buying hard drives for their arcades ($130 MSRP) and some wireless adaptors for the old units ($100).

Microsoft has the advantage here over the PS3. Not the other way around.

I can tell you right now with a FACT that US numbers are "artifically low" due to the lack of the cheaper model 360's.  We have people come into our stores every day looking for arcades or the 250 GB stand alone model but we can't sell them one because we don't have any.  The shortages are very real and they still haven't been completly fixed.  And if people wonder to my accuracy on these kinds of things I correctly prediction when we had Kinect at 5 million on this site that it was actually at 7 million.  The next day it was adjusted to 7.1 million on the site.  I see company numbers and am able to give reasonable basis and prediciton as to numbers.