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Forums - Sales Discussion - The DS will outsell the 3DS in 2011

Beuli2 on 01 April 2011
RolStoppable said:
Beuli2 said:
RolStoppable said:

I don't think I have posted in this thread before, but right now I think that the DS has the better chances to come out on top. I guess it's going to sell around 15m units this year which is by no means easy to top for any system in its first year on the market. It really depends on Nintendo's big holiday title for the 3DS which we should know about by E3's time.

The reasoning laid out in the original post is generally sound, except for one point: The E3 curse. That one is just not true. In 2006 the Wii got the buzz and you know how that turned out. In 2008 and 2009 the Wii certainly didn't have any buzz anymore. At least you got 2010 right, but that still doesn't change the fact that there is no visible E3 curse pattern.

The E3 curse only affects post 2007 E3 announcements.

What kind of defense is that? You are still wrong about 2008 and 2009.

The internetz mocked 2008 and 2009 Nintendo's conference. 2008 and 2009 were Wii's best years.



Above: still the best game of the year.

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Beuli2 on 01 April 2011
RolStoppable said:
Beuli2 said:
RolStoppable said:

What kind of defense is that? You are still wrong about 2008 and 2009.

The internetz mocked 2008 and 2009 Nintendo's conference. 2008 and 2009 were Wii's best years.

Your looking at this from the wrong angle. E3 2008 doesn't count for the year 2008, but the timeframe from E3 2008 to E3 2009. During that timeframe the results of E3 2008 became visible when the Wii started to drop off sharply in spring 2009. It doesn't look all that different for E3 2009.

But I don't want this to drag on any longer. Just accept that one of your many points in the original post was wrong and be happy about what you got right.

Well, I though that, after that many posts, you would have figured that this point was more of a joke than anything. And I know you can just say that I just said this to you as my last hope in not trying to look bad in my own thread, but I also though about this, so your objetive to make me look like failing here is destroyed. Too bad.



Above: still the best game of the year.

Alby_da_Wolf on 01 April 2011

In a month or so we could start getting a more precise idea...



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amp316 on 08 April 2011

I think that you just might be a prophet.



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"There are like ten games a year that sell over a million units."  High Voltage CEO -  Eric Nofsinger

Games4Fun on 08 April 2011
amp316 said:

I think that you just might be a prophet.




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fwap on 09 April 2011

Thanks to the launch in America...


DS 2,797,374 (-87%) 146,790,206
 






3DS 2,060,141 (-)

I wonder if I underestimated how quickly the 3DS would outsell the DS this year. I thought it would be by August but it might be sooner. It will depend on how sharply it falls week on week in America.



09tarheel on 09 April 2011

I might have missed them previously in the thread, but I would be interested to see what types of sales patterns people expect for the two systems, if they think the DS will outsell the 3DS for the year. Do those people think the 3DS will not overtake the 3DS at any point during the year, or that the 3DS will overtake DS temporarily and then outsell it by the end of the year? With as quickly as the 3DS is catching up, I think the 3DS may be ahead in yearly sales sometime in June. Then I think new software releases will give the 3DS weekly increases leading up to the holidays. So I still think unless the 3DS is heavily supply constrained during the holidays that the DS doesn't have much chance. I could certainly end up being wrong though.



Beuli2 on 09 April 2011

Weekly update:

3DS:    2,060,141

DS:      2,797,374



Above: still the best game of the year.

amp316 on 10 April 2011
Games4Fun said:
amp316 said:

I think that you just might be a prophet.


Why are you applauding?

I didn't think that it was that good of a post.



Proud member of the SONIC SUPPORT SQUAD

Tag "Sorry man. Someone pissed in my Wheaties."

"There are like ten games a year that sell over a million units."  High Voltage CEO -  Eric Nofsinger

Pineapple on 10 April 2011
09tarheel said:

I might have missed them previously in the thread, but I would be interested to see what types of sales patterns people expect for the two systems, if they think the DS will outsell the 3DS for the year. Do those people think the 3DS will not overtake the 3DS at any point during the year, or that the 3DS will overtake DS temporarily and then outsell it by the end of the year? With as quickly as the 3DS is catching up, I think the 3DS may be ahead in yearly sales sometime in June. Then I think new software releases will give the 3DS weekly increases leading up to the holidays. So I still think unless the 3DS is heavily supply constrained during the holidays that the DS doesn't have much chance. I could certainly end up being wrong though.


I expect something similar to what you do. The 3DS will sell much more early on, but it will fall off and most likely sell less than the DS in Q3. In Q4, the 3DS should be getting a new round of publicity (whereas the DS will get none), and heavily outsell the DS.