With Nintendo's upcoming handheld launching next week in Japan and in one month overseas, there is great hype surrounding the portable, specially here, in VGChartz, where we ask ourselves how much will it sell. While most believe the 3DS will be a tremendous sucess, including predictions from well known analists, I believe it won't outsell it's predecessor, the DS, at least for the year of 2011, and there are quite some factors that point to this.
The DS has two (or three) months of advantage. You might be thinking, "Are those months really that much of a difference?", yes is my answer, and that's because of January, while seen as a dissapointment in sales after the holidays rush, it still is the third strongest month of the year, only behind November and December. There are also three months of advantage in the west, and this might account for over 2 million in sales altogheter. So, after launching, not only the 3DS has to outsell the DS weekly, but also make up for that disvantage it had.
Videogames don't sell a lot in their first year. While it will do well in it's first weeks, I believe that, after the big initial sales, it will fall quite a lot, selling on par with the DS (or not much above it). This is actually a comproved fact, as most videogames only peak on their third year, and this happens because it takes time for word of mouth to catch up with people.
The DS currently is a much better option. While the 3DS has some nice games for the upcoming months, there aren't many games avaible at launch, and the system is lacking a really big killer app. The DS on the other hand, has a library of hundreds of games availbe the moment you buy it, and very soon, Pokémon Black and White will be releasing, and it will very definitly help the DS.
The 3DS is inferior to the DS. While the aspects are much better and so shiny that will make the core gamer's brains melt, I don't think others will be very happy on what it offers. Even with inflation, it's price point might be far too much than some are willing to pay for a gaming machine. Others of it's downside points are the low battery life, depressing for anyone who makes big travels (or just plays long gaming sessions),and region locking, which will make importers quite sad. The main point however is, are gamers (and non-gamers as well) willing to pay for 3D? Is it something so worthy to pay a lot more? I don't think so. I'm not so impressed by 3D, I don't believe it makes a game better, not enough for the amount it is being hyped, and I don'think I'm alone in this ship.
The E3 factor. I've learned by experience, that if something is really mega huzza hyped in the Eletronics Enterteing Expo, it will not do good. See the exemple for the Wii in 2009 (and 2008), or Xbox in 2010. The 3DS was insanely well received there, and I don't think it can fool the E3 curse.
Why the 3DS actually might outsell the DS:
DS falls abysmally after 3DS's launch. While the DS's decline has been observed in the last months, if the DS falls a lot more than I think it will after it's sucessor launch, it might just be outsold.
New Super Mario Bros 3DS is launched in 2011. I believe that, more than any other game, 2D Mario is the mother of killer apps. If it is launched this year, it might not only counter Pokémons boost, but also out do it and proppel the 3DS to the stratosphere.
Well, here are my points, whad do you think? Will the 3DS be beaten by the DS? Will it not? Do you think there are factors I have ignored/forgotten? Feel free to write down your opinions on the subject.
Above: still the best game of the year.
