don't forget, it is common practice to overproduce so that you have extra stock to shove down consumers throats during the holiday season when demand increases 2 to 4 times that non-holiday season. That's the whole reason that this holiday is so insane for wii, they couldn't stockpile at all.

so ask yourself not can wii sell 3.6M a month the entire year but can it sell 43.2M over an entire year? right now,... it probably could.

DalekLord said: Also if Nintendo started to pump 3.6 million wii's into the system it would not go unnoticed by sony and microsoft, i'm pretty sure they would react in someway, £100-£200 price cuts, throw money at third parties for big name exclusives, huge halo 3-esque advertising campaigns etc etc

 Hasn't hurt the Wii yet

 

 

I'm pretty certain the analyst was speaking in terms of average sales per month, not that it would be 3.6 exactly every month, I don't think anyone thought he meant the exact same number would be sold every month because no supply chain is that perfect

I'm pretty sure that if microsoft cut the price of the 360 to say $200 for the premium (or pro whatever its called) then wii demand would slowdown somewhat

DalekLord said: I'm pretty sure that if microsoft cut the price of the 360 to say $200 for the premium (or pro whatever its called) then wii demand would slowdown somewhat

 Then why don't people go out and buy only the PS2 and Xbox 1 instead of a Wii, they are like a $100?

 

If they wanted a PS3 or a 360 they would have been gamers by now 

demand is finite, there are only so many buyers, i dont see how it could sell 3.6 million for more than 6 months max before dropping down to whatever you percieve as the 'norm'

i see a lot of women and parents buying 360's and ps3's, do you assume only the hardcore crowd buy 360's and ps3's. I would say i game casually, does that mean i wont buy a ps3 no it doesn't. and just so yopu know people do still go and buy PS2'S

Avinash can u give hard evidence that the wii could sustain 3.6 million a month other than your opinion, also whats happening now doesn't mean it will be happening in 6 months time, the wii may be selling less, it may be selling more, but 3.6 million would take something extreme

Avinash_Tyagi said: DalekLord said: I doubt it, even if they did it would be unsustainable for a period of more than 6 months, 10.8 million in 3 months would easily quench demand and then ninty would be stuck with 3.6 million wii's that weren't going anywheres   DS = Dual Screen Miracle   Games Playing- Mario Slam BasketBall Mario & Luigi: Partners In Time Legend of Zelda: Phantom HourGlass     You assume too much, likely Wii would keep selling into the hundreds of millions

Dude, chill out. You blast people for "assuming" too much, and then go on to say that "likely" the Wii will sell hundreds of millions? Do you not see the fallacy with that sort of thinking?

The problem with selling out is that you can't predict its potential maximum. You don't have enough data. Seeing some lines is not enough to state without a shadow of doubt that it could sell double.

 

DalekLord said: demand is finite, there are only so many buyers, i dont see how it could sell 3.6 million for more than 6 months max before dropping down to whatever you percieve as the 'norm'

 It is possible that 3.6m could be the norm.  The simple fact is that this entire thread is filled with people's speculation.  The only thing we know for sure is that demand is higher than what is being shipped right now and demand is much higher than supply, but we don't know how much higher and we don't know how many people aren't even trying to get a Wii right now because they are so hard to find.   

 

The norm could be 1m, 3.6m, 7m, etc...we can obviously see that some bits speculation are more probable than other bits but we still don't know anything that would be useful in making any informed statements.

You speak of a few and try call it a large group, i'm actually speaking of a large group, yeah some casual gamers by the PS3 and 360, but a lot more nongamers and casuals buy a Wii.

PS2 is bought by some, but its sales don't hur tthe Wii, nor will price drops of the PS3 and 360, the markets are too different.



Define Norm, only 3 million per average month and 5 million in holidays perhaps? What is norm? 43 million consoles a year can be divided up in so many different ways