So much argument going on about shipments so I thought we could simply predict and move on.  We will see outcome in April/May.  Also include how many units you expect to be in the retail channel for each console on April 1st.

YTD VGC Sales Numbers

360 - 3M - MS has to replenish from near sellout of 4th qtr 2010, YoY sales up 22%, and MS stated in last qtrly report that they expect revenue to be up 50% YoY in EDD division. If 360 continues 22% above 2010 that is 2.7M sold in 1st qtr so to have the same amount in retail channel at beginning of April MS would need to ship 2.7M simply to replenish stock.

Wii - 2.28M - Nintendo adjusted target from 17.5M to 16M for the year that ends March 31st.  They have sold 13.72M so far. Weird thing is if Nintendo simply replenish stock sold Jan through March with continuing down 33% YoY they would need to ship 2.7M during the qtr.  Does Nintendo expect that sales will drop more than 33% or are they planning for very low number in the channel.

PS3 - 2.2M - To hit Sony annual prediction made last year Sony needs to ship 2.8M.  Last year they shipped 2.2M which is the most they have ever shipped the 1st qtr.  YoY PS3 is down 11% and seemed to have good supply in the channel.  I expect they will ship the same as last year. Shipping 2.8M keeps the number in the retail channel current with the Jan 1st number if sales continue on same trend.

Retail channel

360 - 800K
Wii - 1M
PS3 - 1M

Sony will end up surprising everyone and shipping somewhere no one has ever heard of or is extremely hard to track. The market they have is just too frigging large to be tracked properly, the PS brand is like plague, it's everywhere! Chances are it might be slightly undertracked, not on the scale that some people are suggesting but I'd guess that 11% down is more like in the region of 5 or 7.5.

I don't think 360 will have such a dramatic jump despite being the only console up YoY, chances are it'll ship on par with PS3.

if 2011 Q1 360 really shipped 3m thats up 100% YOY(2010 Q1=1.5m)

Yeah I agree, sony will make their 2.8.

They're down in all the main markets, Europe, US, UK, Japan ect ect, but Asia and Latin America are keeping them higher than they've ever been. I do wonder if this will spur MS and Nintendo on to start shipping elsewhere.

MS I expect anything in the region of 1.7 - 2.5
Nintendo I expect 2.3 like they expect.

Honestly, it's not just 'misnomer territories that no one can accurately track'. Firstly we already know that PS3 was up YOY pretty significantly in the European territories outside of UK, France, Spain, and Germany.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3890185

And one other major factor to consider that everyone always seems to overlook is Canada. Sony stated back in September that they expect to double their Canadian install base from 1.5 million to 3 million by the end of 2011. Clearly PS3 is selling quite well up there. Especially when you consider the fact that GT5 sold almost half as much first week in Canada as it did in the USA. I'd be willing to bet that PS3 was up quite dramatically YOY there this holiday.

Anyway OT, my prediction is:

360: 2.6 million

PS3: 2.7 million

Wii: 2.3

March 31st 2011 I expect Wii LT shipments to be about 86.63M ( 2M) and DS 146.69 ( 2.10).  I've done Q2 and Q3 predictions too and they are in conegamers prediction thread.

Added how many I believe each console will have in retail channel on April 1st.

My prediction...

PS3: 2.7m
Wii: 2.1m
360: 2.2m

360-2.7 million, momentum in America will carry on through Q1

Wii-3.1 million, sales won't dip too much more, and they'll edge out ahead of the PS3 and 360

PS3-2.8 million, Sony will slightly overship Q1, then undership Q2, so it'll be level by Q3 when the PS3 cuts its price

bump for people who didnt see this over the weekend. Please make a prediction.