Still at best they will probably just cut the price $50 and make the Move PS3 $299 in order to foster development of Move related software and keep their average sale price higher.

According to the above Sony has only barely started showing a financial year which isn't in the red. Microsoft on the other hand may be able to cut the price without lowering their profits year over year if strong Kinect sales continue to keep the average sale price of their consoles higher, however even that assumes they aren't trying to maximise profit in the 2012 FY as well. Nintendo on the other hand are significantly lower than the previous financial year and any price cuts they do will eat into their hardware margins considerably with limited supply of 3DS hardware to really bring things back into positive growth.

@Seece, Microsoft has the best position to cut the price I do admit given the fact that their Live revenues are a gift which keeps on giving. They can even start selling Live family packs to families with more than one Xbox 360. However they'll probably only do it if they think they'll be down YOY from June or if they are prompted by a price cut from competitors unless Greenburg really wants to smell blood and take it to the two Japanese console makers in 2011. There are simply too many conflicting variables and the motivation behind the man in charge is hard to figure out.

They don't want to realistically discuss Playstation profits and losses.  Many are so confused by the subject that they took the statements about the PS3 no longer selling at a loss as the PS3 being a profitable endeavor for Sony.  As you stated, a loss leader can only maintain that status for the first few years of release before it turns into just a loss.  It needs to make a profit on the backend of its life or the division will be in trouble.  If they were to drop the price of the PS3 to $199 now, how many more years would it be before it'd start making a profit again?  

And while manufacturing can be streamlined and component parts get cheaper, there is a LIMIT to how low they are going to drop during the lifetime of the console.  There is a reason why PS2 price drops kept getting smaller and smaller as the system aged ($299-199, $199-$179, $179-149, etc).  PS3 sales aren't slow enough to make such a desperate move as they were in early 2007 or 2009.

They want it all, they want it now!

Could equally view it as $200 off over 48 months (2007-2009, $100 cut, 2009-2011, $100 cut).

Not that I have a clue what will happen other than all 3 companies slashing hardware prices.

Both times they were desperate. Both times they had a lot more room for reducing costs than they do now.

Welcome back btw!

It seems also that the whole Playstation losses has been interpretted by some as 'Sony is being good to the gamer by deliberately not taking a huge profit'. I.E. Any price cut is of course at a service to the gamer. So therefore a $199 PS3 is infact Sony showing moral ascendance in the game industry.

If you look at the PS3 $600 or E600 to $400 / E400 price cut it was a 33% cut. The following cut two years later was a 25% cut from $399 to $299. Following that trend the price cut two years after that would be $249 and E249 which would be a 16% cut. If they cut the price to $199/E199 it would again be a 33% cut which is relatively as big as their first which also bucks the trends of the PS2 price cuts you listed.

Another thing people assume is that process shrinks are always cheaper than the previous version. That isn't true, AMD actually cancelled a few chips for 32nm which were going to be more expensive than the 40nm version and they get the benefit of the extra switching speed and lower power useage to increase performance of which Sony has no such luxury. It is possible that the 32nm shrinks for the RSX and Cell processor will be of marginal benefit to the actual cost of production as every process shrink gets more expensive as time passes as more investment is required to reach each new node.

who ever cuts early will be at a disadvantage best time to do it is between sep-nov

wiis price cut for this yr is obvious

move and kinect stand alones will still be the same prices

MS could either ax the arcade and drop the HDD versions by a $100 or drop all current skus by $50 i cant see a 360 console and kinect for under $250

sony will most likely have a revision either a complete redesign to combat hacking or small changes ie bigger HDD smaller cpu and gpu, id be shocked if they go to $199

sony will benefit mostly form any price cut this year YOY as the other 2 had temp cuts/redisgns last yr

if sonys ps3 goes to $199 i believe the WW gap both shipped and sold between it and the 360 will be gone before this yrs up

@ all saying sony wont go to $199 (even though i dont see it i think its still possible) i believe thats what ya'll were saying in the beginning of 09 , you have no idea how much each ps3 currently cost to manufacture or what it will cost say 6 months from now all we know is that at the beginning of last year they were profiting of em

I see price cuts happening with MS/Nintendo being easily guessed, but Sony will be a little different. Dollar-wise I think they'll want a slightly bigger discount.

360
Arcade (noHDD) - $149
w/Kinect - $200
other sku (250GB) - plus $100 respectively.

PS3
lower sku (250GB) - $249 to $229
w/ Move - plus $50 to $70. ($299 either way)
other sku, if at all, also plus $100 respectively.

Wii
all bundles - $149
Probably some type of Zelda 25th anniversary bundle to kick it off.

I don't think Move or Kinect stand alone skus will be cut as like any accessory they are the margin leader and will only be "discounted" based on bundles with new hardware.

ps3 price cut was in September 2009, to $299 after having $100 price cuts every before.

they for the fist time did not drop the price in a 12 month time last year, i expect that another $50-$100 price cut is due around September to $199-$249 (maybe they'd drop it to $224). and move bundle <$80. ps3 move bundle $299-349.

they pretty much have made a profit all 2010, and with move and ps plus, they should be making really good profit in 2011, so they can afford a hefty price cut

Yeah its about time they make a pricecut anyhow.

Here's what I think the price cuts will look like.

Wii - $149

PS3 120GB - $249 

PS3 320GB - $349

Xbox 360 Arcade - $149

Xbox 360 Arcade Kinect bundle - $249

Xbox 360 250GB - $249

Xbox 360 250GB Kinect bundle - $349

Kinect - $119