Highly unlikely because the 360 should at the very least maintain its current sales and I see the ps3 sales accelerating to well over 10 million for its next fiscal year.

If everyone stays at EXACTLY their current selling rate, the Wii would miss the 50% mark by 5.5 million

360 seems to have actually slowed down when you compare this year to last.

Sony does seem to be increasing its selling rate, but it still is hard to tell if this is a permanent change, or just a hump created by the drop in price combined with the christmas holiday sales. It is entirely possible that the new price point is enough for people to be willing to go for it, but no way to be certain until after the christmas season.

If nintendo is still doing 1.8 million every month then they can go as high as 21.6 million consoles by the end of 08, which is only provided they don't increase production again. If they manage to maintain a 90% sellout rate, then they will have increased their sales from 13.5 per year to 19.5 which covers the 5.5 million consoles needed to pull out 50% market share by the end of 08, and then some

of course, as has been said, Sony does seem to be doing a bit better with the new price drop, but 360 is possibly even slowing down. Still, i feel that my prediction is pretty well supportive.

I might as well get into the whole VGchartz spirit, so does anyone want to take me up on the bet that Wii will be at least 48% by the end of 08 and achieve 50% marketshare by mid 09?

I think it's completely fair to argue that the Wii won't achieve 50% market share by the end of 2008. (Personally, I'd make a rough guess that the odds are somewhere around 50/50.) Saying that this is impossible, however, is a rather untenable claim. After all, the Wii outsold the 360 and PS3 combined in 33 different weeks in 2007. (There are only 52 weeks in a year, so that's WELL over half the calendar, and actually approaching 2/3.) It was also supply constrained in many markets, so at least in theory sales should be higher next year.

Here's the actual total numbers from VGChartz:

Sep. 08: Wii 252k, 360 (139k) + PS3 (97k) = 236k
Sep. 01: Wii 282k, 360 (152k) + PS3 (98k) = 250k
Aug. 25: Wii 258k, 360 (142k) + PS3 (91k) = 233k
Aug. 18: Wii 286k, 360 (112k) + PS3 (100k) = 212k
Aug. 11: Wii 270k, 360 (103k) + PS3 (98k) = 201k
Aug. 04: Wii 260k, 360 (68k) + PS3 (105k) = 173k
July 28: Wii 282k, 360 (70k) + PS3 (112k) = 182k
July 21: Wii 284k, 360 (66k) + PS3 (87k) = 153k
July 14: Wii 299k, 360 (70k) + PS3 (92k) = 142k
July 07: Wii 255k, 360 (73k) + PS3 (62k) = 135k

That's 10 straight weeks of the Wii outselling 360 + PS3 combined.

June 30: Wii 272k, 360 (83k) + PS3 (60k) = 143k
June 23: Wii 272k, 360 (80k) + PS3 (57k) = 137k
June 16: Wii 250k, 360 (88k) + PS3 (59k) = 147k
June 9: Wii 245k, 360 (85k) + PS3 (59k) = 144k
June 2: Wii 244k, 360 (69k) + PS3 (63k) = 132k
May 26: Wii 235k, 360 (68k) + PS3 (64k) = 132k
May 19: Wii 226k, 360 (79k) + PS3 (64k) = 143k
May 12: Wii 240k, 360 (89k) + PS3 (69k) = 158k
May 05: Wii 288k, 360 (96k) + PS3 (80k) = 176k
Apr. 28: Wii 295k, 360 (97k) + PS3 (77k) = 174k

Another 10 weeks in a row, as the Wii dominates the slow months of the year.

Apr. 21: Wii 232k, 360 (74k) + PS3 (82k) = 156k
Apr. 14: Wii 204k, 360 (77k) + PS3 (95k) = 172k

We have several weeks in March and early April where the PS3's European launch pushes the 360 + PS3 combo above Wii weekly sales. But before that launch, Wii dominance reigned:

Mar. 17: Wii 188k, 360 (90k) + PS3 (58k) = 148k
Mar. 10: Wii 176k, 360 (90k) + PS3 (78k) = 168k
Mar. 03: Wii 195k, 360 (98k) + PS3 (80k) = 178k
Feb. 24: Wii 228k, 360 (111k) + PS3 (49k) = 160k
Feb. 17: Wii 212k, 360 (116k) + PS3 (52k) = 168k
Feb. 10: Wii 216k, 360 (109k) + PS3 (66k) = 175k
Feb. 03: Wii 224k, 360 (109k) + PS3 (69k) = 178k
Jan. 27: Wii 244k, 360 (111k) + PS3 (73k) = 184k
Jan. 20: Wii 239k, 360 (114k) + PS3 (78k) = 192k
Jan. 13: Wii 246k, 360 (121k) + PS3 (88k) = 209k
Jan. 06: Wii 299k, 360 (144k) + PS3 (135k) = 279k

I did post this one before, so apologies for putting it up again. It was rather germane to this discussion though.

Haha so yourA saying with price drops and AAA titles the PS3 WONT sell more than in 2007? The PS3 is going to move atleast 13 million next year alone. Thats 20-22 million , with the Xbox atleast at 20 million. You really think that the Wii will hit 80million? The will wont even hit 40 million next year.

While there is a vast amount of people buying the Wii, there is a population of people who simply wont buy it. (Any respectable man is not going to sit on their couch alone playing Mario or Super Smash Brothers.)

Haha WOoo its been a long day obviously. I wont even edit out my stupid comment just to be fair. Yes the Wii can hit 50% next year. My math seems to be a little off

1+1=2 right? lol 

I wonder if all of you ney sayers realize that the Wii has outsold the PS3 and 360 combined in 07, and definitly before the holiday shortages narrow the margin a bit...

wii at 40,000,000. PS3 at 22-35 million. Xbox360 at 20million-30.

Its possible, depends on alot of things. Next year will show whether the Wii is really a fad, whether the Xbox has been excepted as the "new PS2" or whether all of the PS3 just need the appropriate price and games to regain its crown.

Personally, i think if PS3 drops to $299, adds in game XMB and Home, and can manage to release KZ,LBP,MGS4,SOCOM,GT5 before years end, I think the Wii will be battling for 1st place instead of worrying about 50% market share.

If the Wii hits 80m it would be close to a 2/3rds market share. It likely only needs around 41m for a 50% marketshare.

As for Galaxy and Smash, I am a self-respecting man who loves Galaxy, thoroughly enjoyed elebits, and I am extremely excited for Brawl. I would say that only insecure punks would think that a real man would let what someone else thinks of him influence what he likes. Real men aren't lead about by popular opinion of what they should and shouldn't like and/or do.

@LeoJ,

I think the Wii is already doing what it needs to do so saying "never" is very silly.

I would say the odds of the Wii increasing its sales are better than the PS3 or 360 increasing their sales given the supply constraints and the pent up demand. I'm sure anyone can rationalize the situation a number of ways to make things look good for any of the three consoles, so I won't drone on, but consider this:

The Wii is the only console with people lining up to get it, and more than a year after it was released. And all of that despite the console being produced faster than any console ever has been.

I wont' make a gaurantee that it will end the generation with 50% market share, but I think it is damn near a gauruntee it will at least pass that mark before the end, even if it doesn't retain it. And honestly it has a 50/50 shot at doing so in 2008.

PS3 won't get above 15 million next year and 360 will probably be around 20 million, so yeah its definetly going to hit around 50% by end of next year

 lol, you actually think PS3 will sell 13 million next year, they'll be lucky to sell 10 million and 360 will never sell over 10 million next year, check their numbers its not possible not without massive price drops

 I'm trying to figure out how the 360 is going to sell another 2.77m before the end of this year =P