You're on, that's going in my sig.

are we talking about 50% market share for the year? Or 50% install base.

The former, most definitely. In fact, going by HappySqurriel's numbers, it looks like the Wii will pull it off this year as well, depending on how their holiday stock goes.

As for 50% Install base, no, but it will by the end of 2009.

im predicting more like 45% for the Wii.

Okay, I checked out the figures for what the final sales were the end of last year.

Wii was roughly 3 million, Xbox was roughly 8 million, and PS3 was roughly 1.25 million

That would mean Wii sold roughly 13.5 million consoles within this year, Xbox sold 6.75, and PS3 sold 6.25

So Wii outsold PS3 and Xbox 360 sales combined by .5 million, even with supply constraints.

I'm going to put my bet on Wii being within 2% of having 50% total market share by the end of 08 and overtaking the 50% mark by mid 09

The Wii's already well on its way to the 50% mark. The market is remarkably volatile and all, but still, it'd take something fairly big to get 360 or PS3 sales to pick up to the rates that the Wii sells at during the "off season". In 2007, from January through September, the Wii managed to get over the sales of the PS3 and 360 combined worldwide on a near-weekly basis (and usually region-wide, too). There's no definite indicators that this won't happen again in 2008. Though to be fair, there's no definite indicators that it will, either. Plenty of evidence, but no guarantees; the very definition of a volatile market, that.

I see it as unlikely, in part to do to supply constraint, but it would have to be a perfect storm to make WII get 50% market share. I feel in Mid Janurary-Feburary the XBOX/PS3 will return to their normal numbers and Wii will keep selling out, for a long time to come, so it is possible, but it becomes less likely by the day.

A more realistic scenario is that, at some point during the months between January and September, the Wii will break the 50% mark. The rate at which it sells compared to its two main competitors more or less assures this. However, during the holiday rush, it'll probably drop down a bit, quite likely below the 50% mark again. It depends on many many factors (how constrained the supply remains, how high demand remains, what MS and Sony do to get their products to sell in the slow months, etc.).

 *sniff**sniff*

What's this? Is it a Fanboy who's letting his fanboyism cloud his judgement? I think it is

Thje Wii is already at 42% market share. Chances are it will hit 50%, especially with the 360 starting to decline in sales. 

Nope not going to happen, too many fanboys have what's realistic clouded by their bias. The wii will be around 45% of the market share not 50%.

2008: Probably not.
2009: Probably.

Think about it.

Look at the sales.


Mike from Morgantown