Wii will loose market share this year. Their is no way it can keep up its pace when the PS3 and 360 continue to become more and more features, at lower and lower prices. At the end of this year (Ovtober) I expect all 3 companies to have their consoles set at the price for the holidays. The Wii will be the lowest at 179.99, followed by 199.99 360 Arcade - 249.99 Pro - 349.99 Elite, and the PS3 40GB at 299.99 - ???GB at 399.99. I can see how people this year could jump on the Wii with a 150 price gap between 360, and a 250 price gap between PS3, but with a 70 and 120 dollar gap the Wii will become less and less justifiable.
This is not to mention that PS3 also has the most highly anticepated titles coming out this year plus the added benefite of Blu-ray. And yes Blu-ray is a huge benefit. People, even the casual or J6P, or whatever you want to call them do understand value, and will know what Blu-ray is. I don't expect to be taken seriously becuase everyone seems to hate the PS3, Blu-ray, Memory Stick, Sony, Disney, and anything ever to do with Playstation for some reason. But the fact is the righting is on the wall, and unless Sony just completely commits suicider this year PS3 is going to gain major momentum.
1. If you think Wii will lose market share you didn't really pay attention last year. The first week Wii outsold PS3 and 360 combined by a fair margin. Not to mention that Nintendo's biggest games will arrive way before that of the PS3.
2. Do you think that Sony can lower the price with $ 100,-? I think Sony will have a tough time convincing shareholders that the enormous losses are worth it. Sony won't make their fsical year prediction of 11 M PS3's sold by far. Lowering the price will add to SCE's losses, which affects the mothercompany.
3. If the Wii's only selling point was the price it wouldn't have sold at all. No one pays $250 for a useless item. People bought the Wii because they like it. No matter how close the price of PS3 gets to Wii's, the Wii will still be the better sold machine. As became clear this year and in previous generations: Graphics are not determining in console-wars. People want the console that they like most, has most games. You sound as if anyone who bought a Wii rather would have bought a PS3, but couldn't afford it. Of course his isn't true. People saw innovation, something new, something they had fun with and wanted it in masses. Nintendo can't even supply enough, despite being the fastest selling console ever. This won't change as PS3 gets cheaper.
4. The PS3 line-up is absolutely amazing, you're right about that. Though I have to say that WiiFit, MarioKart and Brawl will probably sell a lot more combined then Sony's big 3. It's even very questionable if 2 of those 3 arrive in 2008, let alone all 3. Furthermore Nintendo (and Microsoft) haven't shown a lot for the rest of 2008 because they don't have to, they have enough great games that people can play NOW. Sony needs to focus on future games (as far away as 2009) to sell PS3's with the promise of great games.