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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

Avinash_Tyagi on 14 January 2008
auroragb said:
Wii will lose a little market share this year. NTDOY still has not demonstrated willingness to increase production. Limiting its growth potential.

PS3 will gain marketshare because it IS the most future-proof BluRay player on the market. Few dedicated players will get the firmware refreshes required for profile 2.0 and further. PS3 will and it's doubtful that any BD player that's price competitive with PS3 will. With BD effectively winning the HD gen of video players, PS3 stands most to gain from this. The only limiting factor to this will be marketing.

360 will get the most 3rd party AAA titles again. Even if it won't be 360 exclusive, but it will be first developed for 360 with the top talent. PS3 will be 2nd tier. This is the way that the resources were aligned in 2007. 2008 will bear fruit to the effort reallocation. Of course, 1st party studios will still develop exclusives for their respective consoles. Viral nature of XBL Achievements will continue to grow the game sales. Tho console sales will lag comparatively

Wii will continue to get shovelware. Few gems will still come from NTDOY, but virtually all 3rd parties will still treat Wii as an afterthought. Hopefully, an original third party game will shine (saleswise) in 2008, bringing 3rd party notice to Wii potential but will be too late to capitalize in 2008

 Don't disregard the appeal of shovelware to the masses, games like cars and scooby doo and spongebob were almost million sellers on the PS2



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Avinash_Tyagi on 14 January 2008
Mummelmann said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
CrazzyMan said:
Hey if they are willing to lose so much money then i'm certain nintendo will let them bleed themselves dry, then snatch up the full market when their shareholders scream bloody murder

@Avinash_Tyagi:

don`t forget EACH ps3 buyer is POTENTIAL blu-ray movie buyer = $ for Sony.
hint: people usually don`t buy blu-ray player for one movie, but they can buy one movie, if they already own blu-ray player. =)
+ PS3 already cost 400$ to produce. Don`t remember is that 40GB model cost that much or 80GB? =)

Anyway, 400$ to produce, 400$-500$ in USA and 400-500 euro(600-750$ in dollars) in Europe to sell.

I don`t know about M$, BUT Sony DEFINETELY is NOT going to bleed. =)

They are bleeding right now, so they will bleed then as well

 

By then other cheaper blu-ray players will be on the market taking away the PS3's big selling point


 Unlike Nintendo, Sony are not dependent on their games and console performing, they have other divisions. Sony's PS department is dwarfed by their; music department, hi-fi department, cellphone department and movie department. Their console could bleed into the next century without dragging them into bankrupcy as long as their other departments are among the biggest in the world.

Sony is one of the eldest hi-fi and audiovisual manufacturers in the world today, and among the 3-4 biggest at that. Joe average owns a lot of Sony products and uses them daily despite his not having a PS3, but you seem to ignore that so you can imply that Sony are financially weak and vulnerable. Grow up man, profile says 25, I think you added ten years (at least). 


 I think you need to study Buisness, Sony is a publicly owned company, and like all publicly owned company is beholden to its sharholders who make money off of dividends from the storck, if lower profits hurt their dividends they can force the company to withdraw from the market to protect their other divisions profits.

 

If Playstation remains a burden it will die, Sony will be forced to kill it. 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

KTurbo on 14 January 2008
CrazzyMan said:
They are bleeding right now, so they will bleed then as well
Do you have any proof?

By then other cheaper blu-ray players will be on the market taking away the PS3's big selling point
How many of them play games?
I mean, FAMILY - kids play games on PS3, parents watch HD movied on PS3. Everone happy. Do you have better alternative FOR FAMILY? =))

How about... a normal DVD and a Wii, possibly? As far as I know, most parents doesn't have an infinite amount of money. Also, as far as I know, a full HD LCD + sound system + PS3 + Blu-ray disc = an infinite amount of money (Not exactly. Yah, I know. But you get the point.)



BengaBenga on 15 January 2008
auroragb said:
Wii will lose a little market share this year. NTDOY still has not demonstrated willingness to increase production. Limiting its growth potential.

PS3 will gain marketshare because it IS the most future-proof BluRay player on the market. Few dedicated players will get the firmware refreshes required for profile 2.0 and further. PS3 will and it's doubtful that any BD player that's price competitive with PS3 will. With BD effectively winning the HD gen of video players, PS3 stands most to gain from this. The only limiting factor to this will be marketing.

360 will get the most 3rd party AAA titles again. Even if it won't be 360 exclusive, but it will be first developed for 360 with the top talent. PS3 will be 2nd tier. This is the way that the resources were aligned in 2007. 2008 will bear fruit to the effort reallocation. Of course, 1st party studios will still develop exclusives for their respective consoles. Viral nature of XBL Achievements will continue to grow the game sales. Tho console sales will lag comparatively

Wii will continue to get shovelware. Few gems will still come from NTDOY, but virtually all 3rd parties will still treat Wii as an afterthought. Hopefully, an original third party game will shine (saleswise) in 2008, bringing 3rd party notice to Wii potential but will be too late to capitalize in 2008

1. Last year they increased production twice. Furthermmore, even with supply constraints it still outsold the PS3 more than 2:1. To lose marketshare it should be OUTSOLD by the PS3 and 360. With the amount Nintendo can produce (around 24 million a year) I don't think Wii is in trouble losing marketshare due to production. You're right that it could have been even more massive.

2. We're talking gameconsoles. The mass costumer doesn't regard the PS3 as a normal BR player, it sees it as a gameconsole. To add to that: even if HD-players will take of it won't be this year or the next. As long as DVD's have almost the same quality (almost innoticeable to regular people) and DVD's are a lot cheaper BR won't be a mass market format.

3. You're kidding right? VG Developers are in this business to make money. The money is at the Wii, both in the install base and the lower production costs. The shovelware of last year was mainly caused by the surprise coup of Nintendo. 3rd parties didn't have anything read, but wanted to capitalize on the succes, resulting in fast made, bad quality ports. This year you'll see drastic change. Most of the devs will have bigger projects for Wii, that started when the succes became clear. That means the games with longer development times will start arriving this year. You don't have to believe me because you'll see for yourself.



TheBigFatJ on 13 February 2008

Another week's worth of data is here. If the Famitsu charts are fairly accurate, the Wii will have outsold the 360 + PS3 combined by approximately 135,000 units for this week alone. The PS3's sales, in particular, have dropped drastically since the beginning of the year and the Wii's sales have been spinning up.

The Wii sits at approximately 44.5% of the market once the Japanese data is updated. It will be interesting to see if it gets to 45% by the end of Feb. If it can get to ~47.5% by the end of June, it should be well on pace to break 50% before sales spin up for the holiday season where we'll likely see a significant gap between supply and demand for the Wii yet again.

When the Japanese data is in, the Wii will be about 5.35 million units short of 50% of the market.  At its current rate of convergence (about 135K/wk) it would take just under 40 weeks to close that gap.  So the Wii is going to need to start outselling both systems combined by ~150,000-160,000 units per week if we're going to see it hit 50% before the rush.