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Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

Wii will loose market share this year. Their is no way it can keep up its pace when the PS3 and 360 continue to become more and more features, at lower and lower prices. At the end of this year (Ovtober) I expect all 3 companies to have their consoles set at the price for the holidays. The Wii will be the lowest at 179.99, followed by 199.99 360 Arcade - 249.99 Pro - 349.99 Elite, and the PS3 40GB at 299.99 - ???GB at 399.99. I can see how people this year could jump on the Wii with a 150 price gap between 360, and a 250 price gap between PS3, but with a 70 and 120 dollar gap the Wii will become less and less justifiable.

This is not to mention that PS3 also has the most highly anticepated titles coming out this year plus the added benefite of Blu-ray. And yes Blu-ray is a huge benefit. People, even the casual or J6P, or whatever you want to call them do understand value, and will know what Blu-ray is. I don't expect to be taken seriously becuase everyone seems to hate the PS3, Blu-ray, Memory Stick, Sony, Disney, and anything ever to do with Playstation for some reason. But the fact is the righting is on the wall, and unless Sony just completely commits suicider this year PS3 is going to gain major momentum.



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the only 'feature' casuals and non-gamers care about is the wiimote and wii sports

wii will only increase market share this year and the next and the next



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
Fastrabbit09 said:
the only 'feature' casuals and non-gamers care about is the wiimote and wii sports

wii will only increase market share this year and the next and the next


i think it will only increase this year and the next then stop because i dont think it ca always sell 60-65% of the market share



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Price alone isn't enough my friend, Wii has games everyone wants PS3 only has games for one or two people

WHAT GAMES i WANT ON Wii??? You are talking Bullshit.

All people are talking about KZ2, MGS4, Halo3, FFXIII. What Wii games want everyone???
Just looks at Metroid Prime 3 sales. EVERYONE??????????
All i know SSBB many people want, tah`ts all.
Even SMG want NOT everyone.

Metroid Prime 3: Corruption Nintendo 1.06
Super Mario Galaxy Nintendo 4.55

While on PS3,
soem people want GT5,
OTHER GTA4,
OTHER MGS4,
OTHER KZ2 - R2,
OTHER FFXIII,
OTHER LBP,
and etc.

YOU must be BLIND, iof you THINK that everyone want Wii games and NOT PS3 games.

so Wii is a better game machine

Resistance ALONE in USA sold 1 mln. without ANY bundles with LESS userbase. So if MP3 better, WHY it sold WORSE??? EVERYONE? LOL.

@Fastrabbit09:
i was talking about $ from blu-ray DISC movie. Which ps3 user will probably buy, because he already have blu-ray player in ps3.
As i said before:
people usually don`t buy blu-ray player for one movie, but they can buy one movie, if they already own blu-ray player. =)



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

I think Wii will drop to 15.9374374528452345% market share by the end of this year because of the HDTV penetration taking effect (Japan has cleary showed that), the PS3/Xbox360 price-cut (Wii is oh-so obviously selling because it's cheap) and the lack of quality titles on the Wii (see Metacritix.com, gamerankingz.com, iknowallz.com, hateforcasuals.net and waggleaway.org).

P.S: Another important factor is that everyone has lost faith in the Wii and it's future.



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CrazzyMan said:
Price alone isn't enough my friend, Wii has games everyone wants PS3 only has games for one or two people

WHAT GAMES i WANT ON Wii??? You are talking Bullshit.

All people are talking about KZ2, MGS4, Halo3, FFXIII. What Wii games want everyone???
Just looks at Metroid Prime 3 sales. EVERYONE??????????
All i know SSBB many people want, tah`ts all.
Even SMG want NOT everyone.

Metroid Prime 3: Corruption Nintendo 1.06
Super Mario Galaxy Nintendo 4.55

While on PS3,
soem people want GT5,
OTHER GTA4,
OTHER MGS4,
OTHER KZ2 - R2,
OTHER FFXIII,
OTHER LBP,
and etc.

YOU must be BLIND, iof you THINK that everyone want Wii games and NOT PS3 games.

so Wii is a better game machine

Resistance ALONE in USA sold 1 mln. without ANY bundles with LESS userbase. So if MP3 better, WHY it sold WORSE??? EVERYONE? LOL.

@Fastrabbit09:
i was talking about $ from blu-ray DISC movie. Which ps3 user will probably buy, because he already have blu-ray player in ps3.
As i said before:
people usually don`t buy blu-ray player for one movie, but they can buy one movie, if they already own blu-ray player. =)

 I'm not referring to crazed sony fanboys, i'm referring to the mass market you know those millions who care nothing for MGS or DMC or FF.

 

Also you know Resistance sold because it was the only decent game for the PS3 at launch, so everyone bought it, on Wii there are a lot of good games instead of MP3, so there are a lot of choices, so you don't need to buy MP3, if you prefer there are casual games, and other hardcore games.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

I can't ensure this but the Wii will be the biggest console ever created by human being!!! I mean its code name wasn't wrong it is a real Revolution the real NextGen is by far The Nintendo Wii!!



CrazzyMan said:
Price alone isn't enough my friend, Wii has games everyone wants PS3 only has games for one or two people

WHAT GAMES i WANT ON Wii??? You are talking Bullshit.

All people are talking about KZ2, MGS4, Halo3, FFXIII. What Wii games want everyone???
Just looks at Metroid Prime 3 sales. EVERYONE??????????
All i know SSBB many people want, tah`ts all.
Even SMG want NOT everyone.

Metroid Prime 3: Corruption Nintendo 1.06
Super Mario Galaxy Nintendo 4.55

While on PS3,
soem people want GT5,
OTHER GTA4,
OTHER MGS4,
OTHER KZ2 - R2,
OTHER FFXIII,
OTHER LBP,
and etc.

YOU must be BLIND, iof you THINK that everyone want Wii games and NOT PS3 games.

so Wii is a better game machine

Resistance ALONE in USA sold 1 mln. without ANY bundles with LESS userbase. So if MP3 better, WHY it sold WORSE??? EVERYONE? LOL.

@Fastrabbit09:
i was talking about $ from blu-ray DISC movie. Which ps3 user will probably buy, because he already have blu-ray player in ps3.
As i said before:
people usually don`t buy blu-ray player for one movie, but they can buy one movie, if they already own blu-ray player. =)

 Games like Brain Age, Nintendogs and WiiFit appeal to a MUCH larger market than FFXIII or MGS4 which only appeal to the traditional gamer market.  As you can seel from Aidman's post Nintendogs is already in the top 10 all-time best sellers and it's still consistantly in the top 20 if not 10 every week.  Brain Age/Academy titles similarly do extremely well even years after release.  WiiFit will likely have similar legs.

Within 2-3 years the weekly top ten will be dominated with 8-9 old Wii/DS titles and whatever major title just launched on PS3/360 that week. 



 

brute said:
Fastrabbit09 said:
the only 'feature' casuals and non-gamers care about is the wiimote and wii sports

wii will only increase market share this year and the next and the next


i think it will only increase this year and the next then stop because i dont think it ca always sell 60-65% of the market share


why can't it?

 ps2 had over 60% last gen

 wii reaches a larger audience...again, it can reach people that ps3/360 can't even think about touching

 

 



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp

@Gamerace:

So you think,
That ALL 15 mln. people who bought GTA3 on PS2 also BOUGHT GT3? You must be kidding right?
Or ALL 8 mln. FFX buyers were fans of GT3 and GTA3?
What about those 5,5 MGS2 buyers?

Since when all these game buying SAME people???
GTA3+GT3+MGS2+FFX = 43 mln. alone. And if there like 8 mln. people which bought several games, there are still 35 mln. USER BASE. You must be BLIND to think, that all 15 mln. people who bough GTA3, bought GT3, FFX and MGS2.

Nintendo games alone appeal to BIG casual base, BUT Sony games appeal to BIG variety of people.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far