I think Wii will drop to 15.9374374528452345% market share by the end of this year because of the HDTV penetration taking effect (Japan has cleary showed that), the PS3/Xbox360 price-cut (Wii is oh-so obviously selling because it's cheap) and the lack of quality titles on the Wii (see Metacritix.com, gamerankingz.com, iknowallz.com, hateforcasuals.net and waggleaway.org).

P.S: Another important factor is that everyone has lost faith in the Wii and it's future.

 I'm not referring to crazed sony fanboys, i'm referring to the mass market you know those millions who care nothing for MGS or DMC or FF.

Also you know Resistance sold because it was the only decent game for the PS3 at launch, so everyone bought it, on Wii there are a lot of good games instead of MP3, so there are a lot of choices, so you don't need to buy MP3, if you prefer there are casual games, and other hardcore games.

I can't ensure this but the Wii will be the biggest console ever created by human being!!! I mean its code name wasn't wrong it is a real Revolution the real NextGen is by far The Nintendo Wii!!

 Games like Brain Age, Nintendogs and WiiFit appeal to a MUCH larger market than FFXIII or MGS4 which only appeal to the traditional gamer market.  As you can seel from Aidman's post Nintendogs is already in the top 10 all-time best sellers and it's still consistantly in the top 20 if not 10 every week.  Brain Age/Academy titles similarly do extremely well even years after release.  WiiFit will likely have similar legs.

Within 2-3 years the weekly top ten will be dominated with 8-9 old Wii/DS titles and whatever major title just launched on PS3/360 that week. 

why can't it?

 ps2 had over 60% last gen

 wii reaches a larger audience...again, it can reach people that ps3/360 can't even think about touching

@Gamerace:

So you think,
That ALL 15 mln. people who bought GTA3 on PS2 also BOUGHT GT3? You must be kidding right?
Or ALL 8 mln. FFX buyers were fans of GT3 and GTA3?
What about those 5,5 MGS2 buyers?

Since when all these game buying SAME people???
GTA3+GT3+MGS2+FFX = 43 mln. alone. And if there like 8 mln. people which bought several games, there are still 35 mln. USER BASE. You must be BLIND to think, that all 15 mln. people who bough GTA3, bought GT3, FFX and MGS2.

Nintendo games alone appeal to BIG casual base, BUT Sony games appeal to BIG variety of people.

i'm quite sure there is more than 8mil overlap in those 43mil game sales

but yeah, not even close to all who bought one bought the others

also, since when are those games made by Sony?

 Unlike Nintendo, Sony are not dependent on their games and console performing, they have other divisions. Sony's PS department is dwarfed by their; music department, hi-fi department, cellphone department and movie department. Their console could bleed into the next century without dragging them into bankrupcy as long as their other departments are among the biggest in the world.

Sony is one of the eldest hi-fi and audiovisual manufacturers in the world today, and among the 3-4 biggest at that. Joe average owns a lot of Sony products and uses them daily despite his not having a PS3, but you seem to ignore that so you can imply that Sony are financially weak and vulnerable. Grow up man, profile says 25, I think you added ten years (at least). 

1. If you think Wii will lose market share you didn't really pay attention last year. The first week Wii outsold PS3 and 360 combined by a fair margin. Not to mention that Nintendo's biggest games will arrive way before that of the PS3.

2. Do you think that Sony can lower the price with $ 100,-? I think Sony will have a tough time convincing shareholders that the enormous losses are worth it. Sony won't make their fsical year prediction of 11 M PS3's sold by far. Lowering the price will add to SCE's losses, which affects the mothercompany.

3. If the Wii's only selling point was the price it wouldn't have sold at all. No one pays $250 for a useless item. People bought the Wii because they like it. No matter how close the price of PS3 gets to Wii's, the Wii will still be the better sold machine. As became clear this year and in previous generations: Graphics are not determining in console-wars. People want the console that they like most, has most games. You sound as if anyone who bought a Wii rather would have bought a PS3, but couldn't afford it. Of course his isn't true. People saw innovation, something new, something they had fun with and wanted it in masses. Nintendo can't even supply enough, despite being the fastest selling console ever. This won't change as PS3 gets cheaper.

4. The PS3 line-up is absolutely amazing, you're right about that. Though I have to say that WiiFit, MarioKart and Brawl will probably sell a lot more combined then Sony's big 3. It's even very questionable if 2 of those 3 arrive in 2008, let alone all 3. Furthermore Nintendo (and Microsoft) haven't shown a lot for the rest of 2008 because they don't have to, they have enough great games that people can play NOW. Sony needs to focus on future games (as far away as 2009) to sell PS3's with the promise of great games.

Wii will lose a little market share this year. NTDOY still has not demonstrated willingness to increase production. Limiting its growth potential.

PS3 will gain marketshare because it IS the most future-proof BluRay player on the market. Few dedicated players will get the firmware refreshes required for profile 2.0 and further. PS3 will and it's doubtful that any BD player that's price competitive with PS3 will. With BD effectively winning the HD gen of video players, PS3 stands most to gain from this. The only limiting factor to this will be marketing.

360 will get the most 3rd party AAA titles again. Even if it won't be 360 exclusive, but it will be first developed for 360 with the top talent. PS3 will be 2nd tier. This is the way that the resources were aligned in 2007. 2008 will bear fruit to the effort reallocation. Of course, 1st party studios will still develop exclusives for their respective consoles. Viral nature of XBL Achievements will continue to grow the game sales. Tho console sales will lag comparatively

Wii will continue to get shovelware. Few gems will still come from NTDOY, but virtually all 3rd parties will still treat Wii as an afterthought. Hopefully, an original third party game will shine (saleswise) in 2008, bringing 3rd party notice to Wii potential but will be too late to capitalize in 2008