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Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

Another note on production, from Kotaku.com:

"Manufacturing trade site EMSNow are reporting that Nintendo is looking at increasing the number of suppliers of Wii components, and have been in talks with Taiwanese companies Sunplus Technology and Wistron Corp. Lite-On, who manufacture power supplies for the PS2 and 360, are also reported as courting Nintendo, looking for a slice of that sweet Wii pie. While no specific mention is made concerning increased production of the console, unless they've lost manufacturers or I'm missing something, more manufacturers should mean more things manufactured. Right? RIGHT?"

Now don't get all excited. This was reported in July, 2007. But I find it interesting for 2 reasons. One is that talks in July = 50% more production in Sept or October.

Two is that the previous increase was in Apr/May. Two months later, they were already planning on increasing by 50%. Now granted, that was into the holidays, but I wouldn't rule out the increase to 2.0M as Zucas forecasts, but could see 2.2M as well. And in the latter half of the year, if stockpiles are in short supply, another boost to 2.5M a month?



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greenmedic- you look at sales to linearly. If we went by your logic, then we could predict every sales with 100% accuracy. I suggest fir you look at my last post and then if you can rebutt that. Otherwise I really don't see what you are trying to get at.

Nextly you act as if demand can be measured. Not to mention act like it can be a constant. This is silly. Demand flucates just like other things, not to mention is almost impossible to measure. But its not hard to tell when things are on high demand and when things aren't on high demand.

Another thing you assume is that if Nintendo stops selling out, they won't keep increasing shipments, or possibly even decrease shipments. This is silly. Shipment rates don't match sales rates. There is always a noticeably lag. Throughout the main part of the year companies normally like to have 90% sell through percentages. In holiday season that is normally let slip to 85% depending on how popular the product is. But if the product of course is in high demand they'll ship more but the sell through rate will be higher as more or buying it.

Point is though Nintendo is not only going to be trying to outstrip demand, but also due to that high demand they'll obtain that 90% sell through and possible less due to its high demand. Meaning if they stuck at 1.8 million a month, that'd be impossible to achieve. I mean maybe in some areas at that rate they'd be able to outstrip it, but come holiday season they'd be in massive shortages. This theory is silly. Production will have to go up and then possibly another time just to help stock more for the holiday season.

I mean you mock people for defending Nintendo acting as if its out of fanboyism, but the most logical reasoning is that of an increased production rate. And actually what you suggest can only be made possible if Wii demand just starts immediately going down and staying down, which is a more fanboyistic thought out of them all.

I suggest you look at trends, previous numbers, and take in the logical facts and then come back with a more wellthough out arguement.



If you look at my predictions in my sig , I would predict that :

Wii - 45 %
PS3 - 25%
Xbox 360 - 30%



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greenmedic88 said:

The official word from Nintendo is that they will maintain production at 1.8 million units until demand subsides. That's from the mouth of Nintendo's Senior VP George Harrison. 

Harrion's statement is a bit out of context there.  He more recently said they'd reevaluate demand in early 2008 and decide what to do.

As I've stated, it takes Nintendo five months to get more production out of its partners after it determines it needs more.  So when Nintendo increases demand, it is trying to predict the demand 5 months out, not the demand today.  I'll tell you one thing: Nintendo will not be caught next Christmas with its pants down again without increasing supply significantly.  And they've got some big games coming out early in 2008 -- three in the first half: Mario Kart, Wii Fit and Super Smash Brothers: Brawl. These games, especially Wii Fit, are the kind that can seriously drive sales of Nintendo's little white box.  

Everywhere.

You're talking about 'empirical evidence' but, if you had even a modicum of an idea what you were talking about, you'd realize that you can't determine the extent of demand if there isn't enough supply to meet it consistently for any significant period of time.  And here in North America, for example, Wiis aren't staying on shelves for even hours after they land.  Even when they arrive unannounced.

Analysts, the kinds of 'professionals' you're talking about, said that Nintendo may have left a billion dollars worth of Wii demand on the table this holiday season.  And you're simply assuming that demand will slack sometime soon?

Let's see who's eating crow in a few months as Nintendo's marketshare progresses toward 50%.



A simple test for the hardcore players.

Count how many are in your family. Count how many are NOT hardcore players. Divide the first number into the second one. This % is the number that the Wii can get to.


Alright, a bit facious about that. But still, so many non-Wii fanboys believe it is all antedotal evidence of casuals picking up a Wii Sports and having fun with it. Or at best, a fad. IMO, a fad is something that becomes popular, but only does one thing. Therefore, it gets boring. Hula hoops, talking Elmos, etc. were fun for a while, but then the fun wore off. The difference that I see with the Wii, is as long as there are games that come out, as entertaining as WiiSports AND as simple to use, the fun from the Wii will always be fresh for at least the generation (ie about 4 more years).



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Renar said:
A simple test for the hardcore players.

Count how many are in your family. Count how many are NOT hardcore players. Divide the first number into the second one. This % is the number that the Wii can get to.


Alright, a bit facious about that. But still, so many non-Wii fanboys believe it is all antedotal evidence of casuals picking up a Wii Sports and having fun with it. Or at best, a fad. IMO, a fad is something that becomes popular, but only does one thing. Therefore, it gets boring. Hula hoops, talking Elmos, etc. were fun for a while, but then the fun wore off. The difference that I see with the Wii, is as long as there are games that come out, as entertaining as WiiSports AND as simple to use, the fun from the Wii will always be fresh for at least the generation (ie about 4 more years).


 Its true, my family never was into games, now they want Wii, Guitar hero for Wii, Mario and Sonic and a few other games like Wii fit and mario party etc, so that's at least 3 or four systems and a bunch of games.  Sure most of those games would be derided by the "hardcore" but they are what the market wants.

 

If my mom can get excited about the Wii (she wanted me to leave mine back home, I told her to get her own, which she is), then it will be huge



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

greenmedic88 said:
Sri Lumpa said:

greenmedic88 said:


Estimate 360 and PS3 sales to be a minimum of 15 and 8 million respectively for 23 million (lower than the actual total based on current weekly sales) combined.

To obtain 50% of the market, the PS3 and 360 have to sell 17 million units combined in 2008. Less, if the Wii is supposed to exceed 50% of the overall market.

Does that sound in any way shape or form reasonable?

[...]

I wouldn't say that's unreasonable, more like virtually impossible.


Huh?!?

You seem ignorant of the fact that the 360 launched in november '05 and had therefore a bit over two years to sell these 15.5-16 millions which means an average of about 7.5 millions a year... just like the PS3 (8.5-9 millions is for 14 months) for a total of 15 millions a year, with a big chunk of these sales stacked in the last two months.

So even if the Wii does not increase production they still would have enough (21.6) to get to 50% marketshare (15 millions + 5.6 millions difference = 20.6).

Now there are more factors like the 360/PS3 selling more this year with GTA4/MGS4 or the Wii possibly selling less (an opinion widely held by PS3 fans for more than a year now) but calling it virtually impossible is laughable at best.

Of course you made a mistake in your yearly sales numbers but now that you have been corrected maybe you might want to reconsider your statement*.

* assuming you see this post as your post is dated from 2 weeks ago. :)


No, my opinion hasn't changed. The Wii sold 16 million and change this year (from 12/31/06 to 12/30/07). So now we have a lot of people predicting growth of up to 50% (assuming 24 million in sales for 2008) and more in some extreme cases.

With about 25 million combined sales for the 360 and PS3 currently compared to about 20 million for the Wii, projecting a very optimistic 45 million by year's end means sales of the 360 and PS3 will have to stay at about 20 million combined. Not impossible, but unlikely.

Assume 360 sales stay flat at about 8 million. And assume PS3 sales defy the current change in the rate of sales since November (due to the price drop) and mirror 2007 sales of about 7.5 million. Next, assume no drop in price for the 360 in 2008. Do the same for the PS3.

Now I can see Nintendo gaining 50% of the market.

What I don't see are all of the above happening in order for that 50% number to become reality.

I could be wrong, and 2008 could be nothing but expansion for Nintendo while MS and Sony remain static, but this would defy conventional logic. Not fan logic, but the regular kind.


I doubt that Wii will sell 50% more in 08 but 30-40% more is doable (the former without production increase, the latter with production increase) though not guaranteed (depends on when demand is met in America/Japan).

Where I feel that your analysis is unrealistic is when you assume that the 360 will increase 100% this year (from around 8M to around 16M) as it is much less likely than the Wii increasing 50%.

I believe that around 10M for each of PS3 and 360 (one a bit higher and the other a bit lower so maybe 9M-11M or 11M-9M) is generous but possible with GTA4 and MGS4 for a total of 20M. This would still put it high enough that the Wii would not sell more than them enough to have 50% markeshare but it would put it quite close, hence why saying that it is impossible ofr the Wii to have 50% markeshare in 08 is unrealistic.

I personally think it might get it at some point in the year and then lose it during the holiday season but it is not guaranteed; or, if either of PS3/360 underperforms it might get it and keep it but that is even less likely.

I am NOT saying it will get it easily and keep it easily but I am saying that calling it impossible is unrealistic, especially when your justification for it doing so is the 360's sales doubling year over year the year after the 360's biggest exclusive came out (Halo 3).

Edit: If GT5 comes out in 08 then it will not happen as it is the only series from las gen that sold around 15M games and even though it will be weakened by the PS3's markeshare it should move enough systems to make it sure the Wii doesn't attain 50%.



"I do not suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it"

 

Nice picture. =))))))))))))))))))))))))

I really don`t know how MANY there casuals, willing to buy Wii as a TOY. But definetely, their number is HUGE, and will be attracted any time by PRICE CUT. =))

Then again, Wii made 16 mln. in 2007. With total 19 mln.
x360 made total 16 mln and ps3 9 mln. overall 25 mln.

So, Wii must sell aditional 6 mln. in 2008 or Outsell PS3+x360 every week by 120k.
This week it did 92k.

BUT, x360 and ps3 definetely will have a PRICECUT in 2008, that will definetely raise sales. The possibility outselling ps3+x360 weekly sales for wii will be VERY low then, unle NIntendo will make a pricecut too. =)

p.s. i see more people buying PS3 40GB or x360 premium at 249$, then wii for 249$. =)



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

CrazzyMan said:
Nice picture. =))))))))))))))))))))))))

I really don`t know how MANY there casuals, willing to buy Wii as a TOY. But definetely, their number is HUGE, and will be attracted any time by PRICE CUT. =))

Then again, Wii made 16 mln. in 2007. With total 19 mln.
x360 made total 16 mln and ps3 9 mln. overall 25 mln.

So, Wii must sell aditional 6 mln. in 2008 or Outsell PS3+x360 every week by 120k.
This week it did 92k.

BUT, x360 and ps3 definetely will have a PRICECUT in 2008, that will definetely raise sales. The possibility outselling ps3+x360 weekly sales for wii will be VERY low then, unle NIntendo will make a pricecut too. =)

p.s. i see more people buying PS3 40GB or x360 premium at 249$, then wii for 249$. =)

 Hey if they are willing to lose so much money then i'm certain nintendo will let them bleed themselves dry, then snatch up the full market when their shareholders scream bloody murder

 

 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

My prediction is something like

Wii: 45M
X360: 25M
PS3: 17M

Which means yes, yes it will.

EoG Wii will take 60% of the market.