Quantcast
Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

In my opinion, market share at Dec 08 will be:
Wii - 46% (39kk)
X360 - 30% (25kk)
PS3 - 24% (20kk)



I AM THE EGGMAN, THEY ARE THE EGGMAN... I AM THE WALRUS, GOO-GOO-G'JOB! ("I am the walrus", The Beatles)

Around the Network

You could always check the weekly chart sales to see that once off the holiday season spike, sales of the Wii have been well below 450k a week. That's all the empirical data I need. Anything beyond would be conjecture and theory.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=70&weekly=1

That substantiates the well established and widely known trend that sales ebb in spring and stay flat in summer.

Sales typically continue to drop in January, so we should be seeing the effect in less than a month, perhaps slightly delayed from normal due to the rainchecks sold in December.

Note in the last three weeks sales went from 1.4 million > 723k > 566k. This week? No reason to believe those numbers will go up. But we'll see in a few days.





green,

they said that because they are conservative...when they continue to sell out in jan/feb, they will again decide to up production, just like last year

and they have never not sold-out their wiis, so until they do, nobody has any clue how much demand really is

theoretically, demand could be 1mil/week year round...not likely, but in the realm of possibility since it's been sold out for 14 months...it could also be 1 wii over what they have shipped, but that's much more unlikely



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
greenmedic88 said:
You could always check the weekly chart sales to see that once off the holiday season spike, sales of the Wii have been well below 450k a week. That's all the empirical data I need. Anything beyond would be conjecture and theory.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=70&weekly=1

That substantiates the well established and widely known trend that sales ebb in spring and stay flat in summer.

Sales typically continue to drop in January, so we should be seeing the effect in less than a month, perhaps slightly delayed from normal due to the rainchecks sold in December.

Note in the last three weeks sales went from 1.4 million > 723k > 566k. This week? No reason to believe those numbers will go up. But we'll see in a few days.

 It's true that sales normally are much lower in the spring/summer compared to holiday season.  But last year's sales for the Wii don't show evidence of the normal ebb since it was largely sold out most of the time.  Also, the production level for most of spring/summer 2007 was 250-375k a week, so of course they couldn't have sold 450k a week.



1.8mil/month is 415,000/week

and they didn't even get to 1.8mil until oct/nov

so much for "all the empirical data I need. Anything beyond would be conjecture and theory," huh green?



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
Around the Network

Nintendo isn't projecting consistent sales of 420k throughout 2008. I don't know why so many of the Nintendo faithful on this board are. But, that's what makes you true believers and not industry exec professionals.

If some of you actually believed some of your wilder projections, you should be investing thousands if not tens of thousands of real dollars in Nintendo stock.

If they projected 420k weekly sales through 2008, they would currently be implementing the preparations necessary to ramp up production. They are not. They don't want to be stuck with a glut of excess inventory any more than they want to lose millions of potential sales.

Either you believe Nintendo is deliberately cutting themselves out of millions of potential sales, or you follow that their current production rate is sustainable with the idea in mind that it will still allow them to roll stock over the summer (not January/February) in preparation for the holiday season, something that would have benefited them greatly in 2007, before production was raised to current levels from 1 to 1.8 million. If inventory levels rise too high, reflecting a drop in demand, expect a roll back in production. All that matters at that point is that they have enough inventory for the holiday season in 2008.

Once again, Nintendo Sr. VP Harrison already stated this is Nintendo's plan of action. Hold at 1.8 million/month until demand subsides.

Just continue to monitor weekly sales as everyone already does and see whether that number consistently adds up to 420k over the next few months. It's not the end of the world if you start seeing sales under 400k a week once the slow down season begins.



Ummm... you are the one that mentioned 450k a week.  Oh, nice edit to 420k.

You've also failed to provide any evidence that shows the Wii won't sell most of what makes it to the shelves every week.



That, kirk, is B.S! Go fuck Phil Harrison you twat.



The 360 won't bomb, the Ps3 won't sell out past 100 million, the Wii will. Over all predictions, NINTENDO IS BACK IN FIRST BITCHES!

TheZ that's grossly inappropriate. This is your warning, don't insult other members.



greenmedic88 said:
You could always check the weekly chart sales to see that once off the holiday season spike, sales of the Wii have been well below 450k a week. That's all the empirical data I need. Anything beyond would be conjecture and theory.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=70&weekly=1

That substantiates the well established and widely known trend that sales ebb in spring and stay flat in summer.

Sales typically continue to drop in January, so we should be seeing the effect in less than a month, perhaps slightly delayed from normal due to the rainchecks sold in December.

Note in the last three weeks sales went from 1.4 million > 723k > 566k. This week? No reason to believe those numbers will go up. But we'll see in a few days.




True. The numbers of Jan 07 - April 07 averaged <250k a week. Of course at that time, they were only manufacturing 1M a month. They realized that that demand wasn't falling off as much as they thought it would, so ...

Nintendo increasing Wii production to flood planet

by Alexander Sliwinski Apr 26th 2007 11:00PM
Filed under: Nintendo Wii
It's worth noting that the alleged plentiful supply of Wii we expected Nintendo to supply post launch simply couldn't keep up with demand. So much so that major retailers called foul on Nintendo and reporting shipments of Wii to stores is still appreciated by readers. GI.biz reports that a Nintendo spokesperson has confirmed to them plans to increase Wii production are now in effect.

GI.biz was told, "For the first three months of this year we have been producing one million hardware units per month. We are increasing the manufacturing capacity and forecast to ship 14 million in this fiscal year to our distributors and retail customers globally."

http://www.joystiq.com/2007/04/26/nintendo-increasing-wii-production-to-flood-planet/

April 27, 2007 AP

TOKYO - Nintendo’s president acknowledged Friday that the shortage of the hit Wii game machine was “abnormal,” and promised production was being boosted to increase deliveries by next month.

--- And the flood was released. 14M in the fiscal year = 1M Apr.07 + 1.2M*11 more months. Not a huge flood, but demand during the summer, like you say will happen in 2008 would go down, right? Ummm... no. Instead the weekly sales moved up to just under 300k a week. So...

C3 News 10/28/07
Quick News - Given the massive demand for Wii worldwide, Nintendo has confirmed it is upping its production rates of the innovative console to a massive 1.8 million units per month in an effort to get a Wii into every household.

Well, that should do it, right? Not quite. But the holidays are over and demand is coming down. Yes. Note in the last three weeks sales went from 1.4 million > 723k > 566k.

Of course last holiday, it went from 600k > 285k > to the very bottom 3 months later of 151k. Or 1/4 of the max. 1/4 of 1.4 = 350k. Most weeks in the spring and summer were around 225k, 50% above the low. For this year that would make it 525k. I imagine N. is watching January weekly numbers carefully. If they don't fall dramatically, a step up in production will be needed, especially for SSBB, WiiFit and other ones needing Wii support.

On the other hand, if sales fall off to 1/8 the high, like they did last year for X360, then 1.8M is enough, since it will allow for releases and stockpiling for holiday 08.

 To say that they predict sales at 1.8M a month throughout the year doesn't mean that much.  As you can see from last year, they first predicted 1M a month, raise it so that in May it was up to 1.2M a month, then in Sept/Oct up to 1.8M a month.   3 different predictions, so to have a 4th one in 2008, isn't going to be that suprising.

 

 



Torturing the numbers.  Hear them scream.