1.8mil/month is 415,000/week

and they didn't even get to 1.8mil until oct/nov

so much for "all the empirical data I need. Anything beyond would be conjecture and theory," huh green?

Nintendo isn't projecting consistent sales of 420k throughout 2008. I don't know why so many of the Nintendo faithful on this board are. But, that's what makes you true believers and not industry exec professionals.

If some of you actually believed some of your wilder projections, you should be investing thousands if not tens of thousands of real dollars in Nintendo stock.

If they projected 420k weekly sales through 2008, they would currently be implementing the preparations necessary to ramp up production. They are not. They don't want to be stuck with a glut of excess inventory any more than they want to lose millions of potential sales.

Either you believe Nintendo is deliberately cutting themselves out of millions of potential sales, or you follow that their current production rate is sustainable with the idea in mind that it will still allow them to roll stock over the summer (not January/February) in preparation for the holiday season, something that would have benefited them greatly in 2007, before production was raised to current levels from 1 to 1.8 million. If inventory levels rise too high, reflecting a drop in demand, expect a roll back in production. All that matters at that point is that they have enough inventory for the holiday season in 2008.

Once again, Nintendo Sr. VP Harrison already stated this is Nintendo's plan of action. Hold at 1.8 million/month until demand subsides.

Just continue to monitor weekly sales as everyone already does and see whether that number consistently adds up to 420k over the next few months. It's not the end of the world if you start seeing sales under 400k a week once the slow down season begins.

Ummm... you are the one that mentioned 450k a week.  Oh, nice edit to 420k.

You've also failed to provide any evidence that shows the Wii won't sell most of what makes it to the shelves every week.

That, kirk, is B.S! Go fuck Phil Harrison you twat.

TheZ that's grossly inappropriate. This is your warning, don't insult other members.

True. The numbers of Jan 07 - April 07 averaged <250k a week. Of course at that time, they were only manufacturing 1M a month. They realized that that demand wasn't falling off as much as they thought it would, so ...

Nintendo increasing Wii production to flood planet

by Alexander Sliwinski Apr 26th 2007 11:00PM
Filed under: Nintendo Wii
It's worth noting that the alleged plentiful supply of Wii we expected Nintendo to supply post launch simply couldn't keep up with demand. So much so that major retailers called foul on Nintendo and reporting shipments of Wii to stores is still appreciated by readers. GI.biz reports that a Nintendo spokesperson has confirmed to them plans to increase Wii production are now in effect.

GI.biz was told, "For the first three months of this year we have been producing one million hardware units per month. We are increasing the manufacturing capacity and forecast to ship 14 million in this fiscal year to our distributors and retail customers globally."

http://www.joystiq.com/2007/04/26/nintendo-increasing-wii-production-to-flood-planet/

April 27, 2007 AP

TOKYO - Nintendo’s president acknowledged Friday that the shortage of the hit Wii game machine was “abnormal,” and promised production was being boosted to increase deliveries by next month.

--- And the flood was released. 14M in the fiscal year = 1M Apr.07 + 1.2M*11 more months. Not a huge flood, but demand during the summer, like you say will happen in 2008 would go down, right? Ummm... no. Instead the weekly sales moved up to just under 300k a week. So...

C3 News 10/28/07
Quick News - Given the massive demand for Wii worldwide, Nintendo has confirmed it is upping its production rates of the innovative console to a massive 1.8 million units per month in an effort to get a Wii into every household.

Well, that should do it, right? Not quite. But the holidays are over and demand is coming down. Yes. Note in the last three weeks sales went from 1.4 million > 723k > 566k.

Of course last holiday, it went from 600k > 285k > to the very bottom 3 months later of 151k. Or 1/4 of the max. 1/4 of 1.4 = 350k. Most weeks in the spring and summer were around 225k, 50% above the low. For this year that would make it 525k. I imagine N. is watching January weekly numbers carefully. If they don't fall dramatically, a step up in production will be needed, especially for SSBB, WiiFit and other ones needing Wii support.

On the other hand, if sales fall off to 1/8 the high, like they did last year for X360, then 1.8M is enough, since it will allow for releases and stockpiling for holiday 08.

 To say that they predict sales at 1.8M a month throughout the year doesn't mean that much.  As you can see from last year, they first predicted 1M a month, raise it so that in May it was up to 1.2M a month, then in Sept/Oct up to 1.8M a month.   3 different predictions, so to have a 4th one in 2008, isn't going to be that suprising.

Another note on production, from Kotaku.com:

"Manufacturing trade site EMSNow are reporting that Nintendo is looking at increasing the number of suppliers of Wii components, and have been in talks with Taiwanese companies Sunplus Technology and Wistron Corp. Lite-On, who manufacture power supplies for the PS2 and 360, are also reported as courting Nintendo, looking for a slice of that sweet Wii pie. While no specific mention is made concerning increased production of the console, unless they've lost manufacturers or I'm missing something, more manufacturers should mean more things manufactured. Right? RIGHT?"

Now don't get all excited. This was reported in July, 2007. But I find it interesting for 2 reasons. One is that talks in July = 50% more production in Sept or October.

Two is that the previous increase was in Apr/May. Two months later, they were already planning on increasing by 50%. Now granted, that was into the holidays, but I wouldn't rule out the increase to 2.0M as Zucas forecasts, but could see 2.2M as well. And in the latter half of the year, if stockpiles are in short supply, another boost to 2.5M a month?

greenmedic- you look at sales to linearly. If we went by your logic, then we could predict every sales with 100% accuracy. I suggest fir you look at my last post and then if you can rebutt that. Otherwise I really don't see what you are trying to get at.

Nextly you act as if demand can be measured. Not to mention act like it can be a constant. This is silly. Demand flucates just like other things, not to mention is almost impossible to measure. But its not hard to tell when things are on high demand and when things aren't on high demand.

Another thing you assume is that if Nintendo stops selling out, they won't keep increasing shipments, or possibly even decrease shipments. This is silly. Shipment rates don't match sales rates. There is always a noticeably lag. Throughout the main part of the year companies normally like to have 90% sell through percentages. In holiday season that is normally let slip to 85% depending on how popular the product is. But if the product of course is in high demand they'll ship more but the sell through rate will be higher as more or buying it.

Point is though Nintendo is not only going to be trying to outstrip demand, but also due to that high demand they'll obtain that 90% sell through and possible less due to its high demand. Meaning if they stuck at 1.8 million a month, that'd be impossible to achieve. I mean maybe in some areas at that rate they'd be able to outstrip it, but come holiday season they'd be in massive shortages. This theory is silly. Production will have to go up and then possibly another time just to help stock more for the holiday season.

I mean you mock people for defending Nintendo acting as if its out of fanboyism, but the most logical reasoning is that of an increased production rate. And actually what you suggest can only be made possible if Wii demand just starts immediately going down and staying down, which is a more fanboyistic thought out of them all.

I suggest you look at trends, previous numbers, and take in the logical facts and then come back with a more wellthough out arguement.

If you look at my predictions in my sig , I would predict that :

Wii - 45 %
PS3 - 25%
Xbox 360 - 30%

Harrion's statement is a bit out of context there.  He more recently said they'd reevaluate demand in early 2008 and decide what to do.

As I've stated, it takes Nintendo five months to get more production out of its partners after it determines it needs more.  So when Nintendo increases demand, it is trying to predict the demand 5 months out, not the demand today.  I'll tell you one thing: Nintendo will not be caught next Christmas with its pants down again without increasing supply significantly.  And they've got some big games coming out early in 2008 -- three in the first half: Mario Kart, Wii Fit and Super Smash Brothers: Brawl. These games, especially Wii Fit, are the kind that can seriously drive sales of Nintendo's little white box.  

Everywhere.

You're talking about 'empirical evidence' but, if you had even a modicum of an idea what you were talking about, you'd realize that you can't determine the extent of demand if there isn't enough supply to meet it consistently for any significant period of time.  And here in North America, for example, Wiis aren't staying on shelves for even hours after they land.  Even when they arrive unannounced.

Analysts, the kinds of 'professionals' you're talking about, said that Nintendo may have left a billion dollars worth of Wii demand on the table this holiday season.  And you're simply assuming that demand will slack sometime soon?

Let's see who's eating crow in a few months as Nintendo's marketshare progresses toward 50%.