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Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

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Close but not quite is my prediction:

Wii = 38 million.
360+ PS3 = 40 million.



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Machina-AX said:
Close but not quite is my prediction:

Wii = 38 million.
360+ PS3 = 40 million.

 

Now those are numbers that do not defy rational logic.

Personally, I still believe the Wii is very capable of selling out production for 2008, although there is a good chance average shoppers will actually see them regularly stocked on shelves for the first time by Spring or Summer. Any excess production/inventory will simply be held over for the holiday season, which will most likely be sold through once again by year's end.  

Broad prediction for the 360 in 2008: anywhere between 8-10million. 10-12 million for the PS3. Conservative estimate for the PS3, 360 sales pending the inevitable price drop. But without a doubt, beyond 15 million (which would yield a total of 40 million combined). 40 million combined is an extremely low projection by any estimate.

I'm not even going to touch generation total sales since those depend entirely upon how long each stays in production.

If Nintendo sees a significant drop in Wii sales due to higher adoption rates of HD displays and content over the next 2-3 years, I'd expect to see them use some of that revenue they're currently swimming in to finish development of an HD Wii that can render graphics at full 1080p. That would be the Wii 2.0, not a revised Wii with an HDMI port and upscaled graphics for current Wii games. In other words, entirely new hardware, new platform. If sales for the Wii stay consistent, expect it to have a long life for as long as this continues.

If 360 sales remain on rough parity with Xbox sales, they may end releasing Xbox 3.0 in 2010 (which is already being R&Ded, including soft dev kits), which would still be consistent with their claim that the 360 will have a longer life than the Xbox. Even if they keep the 360 in production in conjunction with an earlier release, that would still technically be consistent. But tell that to the inevitable POed Xboxers, particularly the ones who buy a 360 in late 2008 or 2009. If not and sales see acceptable growth, the 360 will enjoy a longer life. 



It's going to be difficult for Wii to accoplish this, as 360 will falter but PS3 will likely take up those sales. Wii will probably end up at about 40-45 million in sales by the end of 2008. 360 will likely be around 24 million and PS3 around 20 million. So Wii would definetly have to hit that max of 45 million, which is unlikely, but possible. But Wii in its lifetime may never be able to get 50%, unless of course PS3 doesn't take over 360's increases in America, as the 360 falters.



Zucas said:
It's going to be difficult for Wii to accoplish this, as 360 will falter but PS3 will likely take up those sales. Wii will probably end up at about 40-45 million in sales by the end of 2008. 360 will likely be around 24 million and PS3 around 20 million. So Wii would definetly have to hit that max of 45 million, which is unlikely, but possible. But Wii in its lifetime may never be able to get 50%, unless of course PS3 doesn't take over 360's increases in America, as the 360 falters.


Nintendo will not be seeing 45 million in sales (or even over 41 million) because they can't sell inventory that won't exist.

Once again: 19.153 million units from initial release through Dec 30th 2007.
Add 1.8 million x 12 = 21.6 million sold for the year of 2008 for a total of 40.753 million by Dec 30th 2008.

That number is set in stone contingent upon two simple projections.
1) Wii sells out through 2008.

2) Nintendo changes its policy on production (1.8 million/month).

"Ultimately, Wii production numbers -- and the United States' allocation of consoles -- are determined by Nintendo's home office in Kyoto, Japan. Harrison says the company will continue producing 1.8 million Wiis every month until demand subsides."



Oyvoyvoyv said:

Have Nintendo opened any new factories, or bought any? Not as I know.


Nintendo doesn't own any factories.  So no.

But they are under contract to have twice as many units produced per month than they were last year at this time.  While 250k/week was their average for last year and it was constrained by production, closer to 500k/week will be their production level this year. 


Wii = 38 million.
360+ PS3 = 40 million.

These numbers are low on both sides.  The PS3 may approach 20 million by the end of 2008, and the 360 should be around 25 million.  The Wii should be above the 40 million mark (1.8 x 12 = 21.6).  The issue is that the 360 and PS3 will make most of their sales near year end, whereas the Wii should do well year round so it could very well surpass 50% during 2008 and end just under 50%.



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TheBigFatJ said:

Oyvoyvoyv said:

Have Nintendo opened any new factories, or bought any? Not as I know.


Nintendo doesn't own any factories.  So no.

But they are under contract to have twice as many units produced per month than they were last year at this time.  While 250k/week was their average for last year and it was constrained by production, closer to 500k/week will be their production level this year. 


Wii = 38 million.
360+ PS3 = 40 million.

These numbers are low on both sides.  The PS3 may approach 20 million by the end of 2008, and the 360 should be around 25 million.  The Wii should be above the 40 million mark (1.8 x 12 = 21.6).  The issue is that the 360 and PS3 will make most of their sales near year end, whereas the Wii should do well year round so it could very well surpass 50% during 2008 and end just under 50%.


i think wii will get above 50%as you mentioned around the slow time of they year though i think it will stay over 50% because nintendo will increase production even more



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

greenmedic88 said:
Zucas said:
It's going to be difficult for Wii to accoplish this, as 360 will falter but PS3 will likely take up those sales. Wii will probably end up at about 40-45 million in sales by the end of 2008. 360 will likely be around 24 million and PS3 around 20 million. So Wii would definetly have to hit that max of 45 million, which is unlikely, but possible. But Wii in its lifetime may never be able to get 50%, unless of course PS3 doesn't take over 360's increases in America, as the 360 falters.


Nintendo will not be seeing 45 million in sales (or even over 41 million) because they can't sell inventory that won't exist.

Once again: 19.153 million units from initial release through Dec 30th 2007.
Add 1.8 million x 12 = 21.6 million sold for the year of 2008 for a total of 40.753 million by Dec 30th 2008.

That number is set in stone contingent upon two simple projections.
1) Wii sells out through 2008.

2) Nintendo changes its policy on production (1.8 million/month).

"Ultimately, Wii production numbers -- and the United States' allocation of consoles -- are determined by Nintendo's home office in Kyoto, Japan. Harrison says the company will continue producing 1.8 million Wiis every month until demand subsides."


i think nintendo will most likely increase production even more for the holidays



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

No need to increase production. Contrary to popular belief among Nintendo fans, demand will likely drop slightly sometime between spring and summer, allowing for stockpiling in preparation for the holiday season.

That simply means weekly sales have to drop under 450k units per week to allow for excess stock relative to rate of production.

The official word from Nintendo is that they will maintain production at 1.8 million units until demand subsides. That's from the mouth of Nintendo's Senior VP George Harrison.

Unless you're privy to some information he isn't, or until Nintendo releases information suggesting otherwise, production is 1.8 million/month. End of story.



greenmedic88 said:
Zucas said:
It's going to be difficult for Wii to accoplish this, as 360 will falter but PS3 will likely take up those sales. Wii will probably end up at about 40-45 million in sales by the end of 2008. 360 will likely be around 24 million and PS3 around 20 million. So Wii would definetly have to hit that max of 45 million, which is unlikely, but possible. But Wii in its lifetime may never be able to get 50%, unless of course PS3 doesn't take over 360's increases in America, as the 360 falters.


Nintendo will not be seeing 45 million in sales (or even over 41 million) because they can't sell inventory that won't exist.

Once again: 19.153 million units from initial release through Dec 30th 2007.
Add 1.8 million x 12 = 21.6 million sold for the year of 2008 for a total of 40.753 million by Dec 30th 2008.

That number is set in stone contingent upon two simple projections.
1) Wii sells out through 2008.

2) Nintendo changes its policy on production (1.8 million/month).

"Ultimately, Wii production numbers -- and the United States' allocation of consoles -- are determined by Nintendo's home office in Kyoto, Japan. Harrison says the company will continue producing 1.8 million Wiis every month until demand subsides."


Assuming that Nintenod will not increase production from a level that has them already sold out is well silly.  If current demand shows that you are in shortages with your current supply then the only way to end it is increasing supply and production.  If you don't do that then you will continue to sellout.  Making what you stated physically impossible.  If they don't increase production then they'll continue to sellout and won't outstrip demand.  You have no logic in your presentation.

For NIntendo to outstrip demand by Summer 2008, which I agree upon and have been stating since about Summer 2007 when they would outstrip demand, they need to increase production to make it possible.  Probably somewhere in early 2008 they'll increase production to 2 million a month, and this will be allow them to outstrip demand by Summer 2008.  They'll continue that production until about August 2008, where they'll once again increase to help have enough supply for the holidays.  Remember in the earlly part of the year we are still leveling off from holidays meaning sales will be on a downard slope, then in the mid part of the year we are at our lowest until later in the year we are on high againg.  Sales work on a cosine wave basically.  So here's how shipments will probably work each month:

January- 1.8 million

February- 1.8 million

March- 2.0 million(normally as the fiscal year ends you increase production so that it shows in your finance reports)

April- 2.0 million

May- 2.0 million

June- 2.0 million

July- 2.0 million

August- 2.2 milion(normally in one of the summer months they increase for holidays, but during the entire summer and earlier months starting with April stockpiling is occuring)

September- 2.2 million

October- 2.2 million

November- 2.2 million

December- 2.2 million 

Total-  24.6 million

This is why I stated that the 45 million would be very difficult to get as this is the most likely course of action Nintendo will make, which many have agreed upon, including the Source in his idea of 2008 sales for Wii.  You first of all assumed that 1.8 million would be shipped throughout the entire year.  Which is simply ludacris unless from month 1, Wii sales are on a decline and stay that way for the entire year.  Then your 1.8 million a month theory might be possible.  But there is no evidence to even suggest that at least until after Summer 2008.  I've already discussed that for NIntendo to outstrip supply, they ahve to increase production.  Remember not all produced are actually shipped.  Stockpiling takes place throughout the entire year.  Just more so during the summer months because this is the time when you sell the least, which is why its the most likely time supply will outstrip demand.

My month to month production number which will most likely have a 95% of them shipped, gives a more realistic standpoint on Nintendo's scenario for 2008.  It takes into account especially the holiday season, where NIntendo will tyr its best to meet an inevitable increase in demand to the point where it'll probably sellout again in those months.  DS is an example where this is true.  The only time we'd see your scenario take place, is if supply and demand have met a nice medium, like we see with the DS.  We know Wii has not met this with the current 1.8 million a month.  

Thus I think actual sales for the Wii by the end of 2008 will be anywhere from 40-45 million, depending on how many they are able to get out, how many was actually shipped by the end of 07, the effects of Wii Fit, SSBB, and MK Wii, and of course if Wii is able to still have the same dominant brandname throughout the entire year and increased at holiday times as it did in Q4 07. 

 



greenmedic88 said:
No need to increase production. Contrary to popular belief among Nintendo fans, demand will likely drop slightly sometime between spring and summer, allowing for stockpiling in preparation for the holiday season.


 Contrary to normal logic, demand exceeded supply in many parts of the world for 14 months. What evidence do you have to show that it will slow down?