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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

brute on 11 January 2008
yoshiboots said:
ya proballly but it could use with a better lineup but more games will probally be announced later.

expect alot of titles announced this year for wii but wii release in 09

tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

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Fastrabbit09 on 11 January 2008

most of the ps3/360 sales will come in the last quarter of the year

so even if wii doesn't end up with 50% on 12/31/08, it should definitely reach that mark some point during the year...



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
Neos on 11 January 2008
fkusumot said:
segajon said:
no chance the 360 is very consistent and the ps3 has a lot of momentum at the moment.

end of generation predictions

1.PS3
2Wii
3X360


awesome, the wii is even going downhill.

true fad. 



Neos - "If I'm posting in this thread it's just for the lulz."
Tag by the one and only Fkusumot!

 

greenmedic88 on 11 January 2008
Sri Lumpa said:

greenmedic88 said:


Estimate 360 and PS3 sales to be a minimum of 15 and 8 million respectively for 23 million (lower than the actual total based on current weekly sales) combined.

To obtain 50% of the market, the PS3 and 360 have to sell 17 million units combined in 2008. Less, if the Wii is supposed to exceed 50% of the overall market.

Does that sound in any way shape or form reasonable?

[...]

I wouldn't say that's unreasonable, more like virtually impossible.


Huh?!?

You seem ignorant of the fact that the 360 launched in november '05 and had therefore a bit over two years to sell these 15.5-16 millions which means an average of about 7.5 millions a year... just like the PS3 (8.5-9 millions is for 14 months) for a total of 15 millions a year, with a big chunk of these sales stacked in the last two months.

So even if the Wii does not increase production they still would have enough (21.6) to get to 50% marketshare (15 millions + 5.6 millions difference = 20.6).

Now there are more factors like the 360/PS3 selling more this year with GTA4/MGS4 or the Wii possibly selling less (an opinion widely held by PS3 fans for more than a year now) but calling it virtually impossible is laughable at best.

Of course you made a mistake in your yearly sales numbers but now that you have been corrected maybe you might want to reconsider your statement*.

* assuming you see this post as your post is dated from 2 weeks ago. :)


No, my opinion hasn't changed. The Wii sold 16 million and change this year (from 12/31/06 to 12/30/07). So now we have a lot of people predicting growth of up to 50% (assuming 24 million in sales for 2008) and more in some extreme cases. 

With about 25 million combined sales for the 360 and PS3 currently compared to about 20 million for the Wii, projecting a very optimistic 45 million by year's end means sales of the 360 and PS3 will have to stay at about 20 million combined.  Not impossible, but unlikely.

Assume 360 sales stay flat at about 8 million. And assume PS3 sales defy the current change in the rate of sales since November (due to the price drop) and mirror 2007 sales of about 7.5 million. Next, assume no drop in price for the 360 in 2008. Do the same for the PS3. 

Now I can see Nintendo gaining 50% of the market. 

What I don't see are all of the above happening in order for that 50% number to become reality. 

I could be wrong, and 2008 could be nothing but expansion for Nintendo while MS and Sony remain static, but this would defy conventional logic. Not fan logic, but the regular kind.  



ismael on 11 January 2008
fkusumot said:
segajon said:
no chance the 360 is very consistent and the ps3 has a lot of momentum at the moment.

end of generation predictions

1.PS3
2Wii
3X360

 
hahahaa, that was funny 

 



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brute on 11 January 2008
RolStoppable said:
fkusumot said:


By any chance, did you steal this graph out of Pachter's brief case?

lol thats was a good one

tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Avinash_Tyagi on 12 January 2008

Easily, if Nintendo ships enough, that's all that it depends upon how many consoles Nintendo can pump out this year



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

krik on 12 January 2008

No, Wii will not reach 50% market share. Not even in the next 2 years



PSN ID: krik

Optimistic predictions for 2008 (Feb 5 2008): Wii = 20M, PS3 = 14M, X360 = 9.5M

 

fkusumot on 12 January 2008
RolStoppable said:
fkusumot said:


By any chance, did you steal this graph out of Pachter's brief case?

 Close. I started up MS Paint and then sat on my mouse and waggled around until the chart came out.



I Blame Wii Fit!

RCTjunkie on 12 January 2008

My guess is Q1 2009



WHO IS JESUS REALLY?