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Forums - Sales Discussion - MEANINGFUL Attach Rate Comparisons!!!

Sorry, but this system is perfectly accurate.

Of course it will favor a console that's only been out ONE SINGLE MONTH, but as soon as you hit your second month, that advantage will be chopped almost in half. Each month thereafter chops it in half yet again. Keep in mind, this is the ADVANTAGE being chopped in half, not the sales or ratios that are being chopped in half.

So to give an idea, the 360 has an advantage of 1/(2^26) (decimal doesn't register on my calculator) while Wii and PS3 have had an advantage of 1/(2^15) (equals 0.000031) This number is already so negligible that the advantage wouldn't show up in these numbers.

SO Legend11, while you're extreme scenario may be an obvious glaring factor to you, it just ISN'T HAPPENING

Your complaints are nothing more than; "360 has higher attach rates, everyone has known that and that's always been the case. It cant possibly be that everyone had actually overlooked a glaringly obvious point that was affecting numbers AND WAS WRONG. So since this new way gives different results from my old way it must be wrong instead."



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My Prediction: Wii will be achieve 48% market share by the end of 2008, and will achieve 50% by the end of june of 09. Prediction Failed.

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Diomedes1976 said:
One more thing ?Where did you take the software totals ?

There isnt accurate european data to this point aside from the Top Ten games and although the japanese and NA info is quite good if you arent a NPD insider or MC insider yourself you are using only the Top 200 (or Top 50 with Europe ) at best so it isnt very representative .
I used the monthly totals form this site though only for NA and Japan, I haven't touched Europe due to the lack of accurate data from launch.

 



Hus said:

Grow up and stop trolling.

Grey Acumen said:
Sorry, but this system is perfectly accurate.

Of course it will favor a console that's only been out ONE SINGLE MONTH, but as soon as you hit your second month, that advantage will be chopped almost in half. Each month thereafter chops it in half yet again. Keep in mind, this is the ADVANTAGE being chopped in half, not the sales or ratios that are being chopped in half.

So to give an idea, the 360 has an advantage of 1/(2^26) (decimal doesn't register on my calculator) while Wii and PS3 have had an advantage of 1/(2^15) (equals 0.000031) This number is already so negligible that the advantage wouldn't show up in these numbers.

SO Legend11, while you're extreme scenario may be an obvious glaring factor to you, it just ISN'T HAPPENING

Your complaints are nothing more than; "360 has higher attach rates, everyone has known that and that's always been the case. It cant possibly be that everyone had actually overlooked a glaringly obvious point that was affecting numbers AND WAS WRONG. So since this new way gives different results from my old way it must be wrong instead."

Jesus can we get off the fact that I own a 360?  When it comes to software attach rates the 360 has NO advantage compared to other consoles.  A console's software attach rate is simply the average number of games sold per system, nothing more, nothing less.  Software attach rates are compared among systems for the same point of time in a console's lifecycle.  For example the 360's first year attach rate is compared to the PS2's first year.  Another example would be the 360's attach rate by it's second year being compared to the GC's attach rate by it's second year.  Nowhere in that system is one console given an advantage over another like the system in this thread has.  If someone is comparing the 360's second year attach rate with the Wii's first then they are well an idiot. 

I really don't understand why Biggerboat just couldn't have compared the Wii's first year attach rate with the 360's first year.  That's how everyone does it because well it actually makes sense when you think about it.  It doesn't make sense to come up with some kind of nonsense lame formula so that it can somehow "equalize" the 360's second year attach rate to the Wii's first year.  As soon as you start penalizing one system what's the point of comparing numbers?



Legend, you do realize that the current attach rate system is actually skewed in 360's favor right? So really what you are saying is that you prefer the current system which is always skewed over this system which has the potential to be skewed for the first 6 to 9 months of a consoles life.

The idea that people should compare 1st year attach rations is all well and good and it yields valid data but it yields valid data that is always out of date. And its still provides the potential for skewing of the current situation with regards to the older console. If we compare 1st year 360 and PS3 data we ignore what happened to the 360 during its second year and will always have to ignore what happened in the most recent year for the 360. If the 360 sold a lot of games it hurts it, and if its game sales slowed down it helps it. But towards the end of a console life game sales usually start to slow down, so it is more likely to favor that console than not as time goes by.

As for your issue with this system: Your issue basically assumes that the person looking at the data is a complete moron and incapable of realizing that after only 1 month the data may not be all that useful yet. Most attach rate comparisons aren't even bothered with until 6-9 months or so. Not to mention that a single consumers worth of data is completely useless in terms of establishing an attach ratio. Sure you might have the one user for a console that has 30 games in 6 months but he is completely drowned out by those who only have 3 or 4 etc...

The system isn't perfect, but none of them are. They all have flaws and shortcoming and you are just picking the one you like and telling everyone else their system is lame because it doesn't show what you think it should show. This system, like all attach ratio comparisons, is only valid when used properly anyways.



To Each Man, Responsibility
Biggerboat said:
Diomedes1976 said:
One more thing ?Where did you take the software totals ?

There isnt accurate european data to this point aside from the Top Ten games and although the japanese and NA info is quite good if you arent a NPD insider or MC insider yourself you are using only the Top 200 (or Top 50 with Europe ) at best so it isnt very representative .
I used the monthly totals form this site though only for NA and Japan, I haven't touched Europe due to the lack of accurate data from launch.

 


Wait a minute, how the hell are you supposed to call these meaningful numbers when you didnt even use European data? That makes your entire "stats" worthless. It makes your entire system skewed and has absolutly no relevance. While you bash on the numbers that get put out there, at least those actually use worldwide complete data, rather then your incomplete data.

This is like me doing a study on the acceptance of homosexuality in the US. When i do the study, i leave out New England and the West Coast, and focus on the data from the Midwest and the South. Yet i still say this is representative of the US.  I think we can see what is wrong with this immediately.

This is absolutely and principally flawed.



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If you could I'd like to see per month charts with the values per console:

Estimated total software sales for that month / Estimated total consoles "in the wild"

I think those charts would go a long way in proving you point.



What all of this proves is that Wii owners buy games like other system owners.

You can quibble on the details ... but this and other threads using different methods have the same message.

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

Wii Friend Code: 1624 6601 1126 1492

NNID: Mike_INTV

@prlatino86

Your comparison is flawed. Because it is clearly discussed that this is for NA and JP markets only. It is not WW and says so.

Under that same logic, if you were doing a study in a region of the US, then you would not necessarily need New England or the West Coast. But you could not call it a national study.

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

Wii Friend Code: 1624 6601 1126 1492

NNID: Mike_INTV

Legend11 said:
Grey Acumen said:
Sorry, but this system is perfectly accurate.

Of course it will favor a console that's only been out ONE SINGLE MONTH, but as soon as you hit your second month, that advantage will be chopped almost in half. Each month thereafter chops it in half yet again. Keep in mind, this is the ADVANTAGE being chopped in half, not the sales or ratios that are being chopped in half.

So to give an idea, the 360 has an advantage of 1/(2^26) (decimal doesn't register on my calculator) while Wii and PS3 have had an advantage of 1/(2^15) (equals 0.000031) This number is already so negligible that the advantage wouldn't show up in these numbers.

SO Legend11, while you're extreme scenario may be an obvious glaring factor to you, it just ISN'T HAPPENING

Your complaints are nothing more than; "360 has higher attach rates, everyone has known that and that's always been the case. It cant possibly be that everyone had actually overlooked a glaringly obvious point that was affecting numbers AND WAS WRONG. So since this new way gives different results from my old way it must be wrong instead."

Jesus can we get off the fact that I own a 360?

LOL. Dude, I have no clue what system you own, nor did I make even teh slightest allusion to you even owning ANY console. Seriously, go back and take a look for yourself.

 



Seppukuties is like LBP Lite, on crack. Play it already!

Currently wrapped up in: Half Life, Portal, and User Created Source Mods
Games I want: (Wii)Mario Kart, Okami, Bully, Conduit,  No More Heroes 2 (GC) Eternal Darkness, Killer7, (PS2) Ico, God of War1&2, Legacy of Kain: SR2&Defiance


My Prediction: Wii will be achieve 48% market share by the end of 2008, and will achieve 50% by the end of june of 09. Prediction Failed.

<- Click to see more of her

 

Clearly this is a valid method, to a point. Of course it isn't a be-all, end-all stat, but no one said it was.

Its always seemed to me the "attach rate" discussions have overlooked several key points:

1. Attach rate increases with time early in the console cycle (and decreases, though comparitively less, late in the cycle).
2. Skewing caused by pack-in games (either by counting or by not counting them) will become less significant as attach rate grows. 1 (extra game per console) / 3 (total games per console) > 1/11
3. Overall units sales, and unit sales rate, is more important than attach rate.

Also, Legend11, a haiku

Legend Eleven
You ought not act indignant
Lest your points are ace



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

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