If we agree that the current gap is 5 million to the 360, then i would guess that there will be a 7million gap at years end.  I do think that if Sony does do a $100 price drop, that there could be significant changes to that.  I think that Microsoft likes their current price point and even if Sony drops their price, Microsoft might not match with Kinect helping it to drive sales.  I think that Microsoft would have no problem keeping the gap the same and having the ability to actually make some $$$ on each console.  They will probably do more value added sales through the retailers...  So, if Sony does drop $100, i think the gap stays the same at 5 million.

Kinect presents a big growth opportunity for 360, so if it continues to take off as it has been, the gap will obviously grow as well.  Sony doesn't really have anything comparable, Move's been a total non-starter (mostly due to Sony's handling of it themselves) and their lineup for the year is loaded with nothing but sequels that should please the base, but do little to actually grow it.

A 6.5m or higher gap by 2012 wouldn't surprise me in the least.  Microsoft's likely Q1 shortages may brunt that some though.

Really too early to tell, but I'm sure it'll be another interesting year, MS never was so strong, but Sony and Ninty resist bravely, and all the three of them now look like they see more life left in this gen.

I think the PS3 will get closer to the 360 just b/c of their games.

Xbox 360 sales haven't jumped as high as was expected with the release of Kinect, so I suspect it's up to the core gamer to decide.  With ps3's 20 exclusives this year, I think it's safe to say the gap will close.

While I agree that the announced exclusive titles for 2011 favor the PS3, I think the libraries for each of these systems are very established and therefore singular releases, regardless of quality, will have limited strategic effect on sales of the PS3 or 360.

Therefore I'd estimate that the biggest drivers to sales this year for the HD systems are Kinect/Move and price cuts.

I don't see a $100 price cut on the PS3 this year (I expect $50), nor do I see a price drop at all on the Kinect (or Move)..so my 'assumptions' (no price cut on Kinect/360, $50 on PS3) lead me to believe that the gap will remain relatively static over the course of the year.  Down in some points of the year, increasing in others = no large change by years end.

It'll definitely grow for at least the 1st 3 months of 2011. After that, we'll have to see what happens. If Kinect still stays strong and might continue to grow even longer, but it's going to depend on what games come out within the 1st 6 months.

close like it always has been doing

shipment gap beggining each year since ps3 launch

2007 8.7M

2008 7.3M

2009 7.5M

2010 5.3M

last shipment gap 9/2010 2.8M :-O

and my favorite courtisy of mikebs sig  PS3 vs 360 sales

as you can see from the numbers above 360 never really widen it with all theyve done over the yrs like $300 then to $200 price tags, kenicts, 3 Halo games, and even this yr it being MS best year when Oct-Dec shimpments are revealed the gap wont be as wide as it was begining of 2010 

all the ps3 really has done in this time was drop down to $300 in 09 and there 2010 numbers are actually higher than 09 unlike MSs 09 numbers compared to there 08 once when they had big price cuts, and had a few AAA blockbusters like Uncharted 2 and MGS4 with most of the rest coming out this or next year 

now ya'll gonna say thats just shipments but at the end of the day, the day sony announces there shipments are higher than MS than thats the day when all on the internet will say "ps3 passed 360" not when VGC shows it

its early to tell what there current sold gap is b/c NPD Dec and latest shipment could/will change VGCs numbers

The gap will slightly increase in the next weeks. As soon as MS is forced to throw "Kinect for PC" onto the market (which has been the plan from day 0. Due to the ATI/Isrealy company announcement of just such a device, MS will be forced to speed up the process), the gap will close as Kinect for XBox will lose traction fast.

I agree that shipment numbers is what counts. Its what everyone thinks is sold AND its what is going to sell eventually.