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Forums - Sales Discussion - Conegamer's Official 2011 predict-a-thon. ENTRIES NOW OPEN!!!

puffy on 08 January 2011
Conegamer said:

Updated the OP with the new information (i.e. console sales and new people who want to take part)

I need just 1 more person to take part in order for me to have reached my lower bound of where I wanted to be at this point...

 

Also, I shall update again in a few hours with people's January games predictions, so watch this space!


I'm going to take part.. I'll just have to do some statistics work and take a look at trends and likely changes through the year before I give you my predictions :P



 

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Conegamer on 08 January 2011
puffy said:
Conegamer said:

Updated the OP with the new information (i.e. console sales and new people who want to take part)

I need just 1 more person to take part in order for me to have reached my lower bound of where I wanted to be at this point...

 

Also, I shall update again in a few hours with people's January games predictions, so watch this space!


I'm going to take part.. I'll just have to do some statistics work and take a look at trends and likely changes through the year before I give you my predictions :P

OK, cool, that makes 15! Yay!

Although, don't talk about statistics. That's the exam I'm taking, so bad vibes...



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

MrT-Tar on 08 January 2011

I'll definitely take part




Conegamer on 08 January 2011
MrT-Tar said:

I'll definitely take part

In all areas? Or just one. Because the deadline for the section on games sales predictions ends on Friday!

 

(Woah. Far too many plural words there )



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Juma009 on 08 January 2011

I'll definetly participate in all categories.

Here are my games predictions

1. Wii Sports Resort-   2.1 M

2. Kinect Adventures-  1.7 M

3. Little Big Planet 2.-   780 K

4. Monster Hunter P 3.- 210 K

5. The Last Story.-      160k



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Conegamer on 08 January 2011
jarrod said:

I am AWFUL with worldwide numbers, so I'm going Japan only!

Console Sales

 

  • 3DS: 6m
  • PSP: 2.25m
  • DS: 1.5m
  • Wii: 1.5m
  • PS3: 1.25m
  • 360: 250k

 

Software Sales

 

  • over 5m: none sadly :(
  • over 3m: Dragon Quest X (Wii)
  • over 1m: Dissidia 12 Final Fantasy (PSP) Surprise!  ;D
  • over 500k: Fantasy Life (3DS) also kinda Surprise! 
  • under 250k: The Last Guardian (PS3)

 

Super Predictor

 

  • Dragon Quest X will be a holiday release, gets new Wii color launch (either Blue or Platinum)
  • Monster Hunter Portable 3rd G will be a 3DS exclusive release for holiday 2011
  • Ninja Gaiden 3 will be one of the first 3rd party titles confirmed for Wii 2's 2012 launch
  • God Eater 2 released for PS3, filling the void Capcom left behind
  • Final Fantasy Versus XIII announced for 360, Japan still gets 1 year exclusivity on PS3
  • Final Fantasy Agito XIII announced for 3DS, Japan still gets 1 year exclusivity on PSP
  • Minna no Golf 6 released for PS3, bundled with Move
  • Sega and Nintendo release a 3rd Mario & Sonic game across Wii, DS and 3DS
  • Ninokuni PS3 delayed to 2012, drops the Magic Master
  • GBA, Game Gear, Wonderswan and NeoGeo Pocket all get announced for 3DS Virtual Console

 

HEY! I just noticed that you think Dragon Quest X will be released this year! You're crazy man. In a good way of course

 

...however, I also desperately hope you're right...



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer on 08 January 2011

Updated the OP with people's games predictions, noticed how wildly different mine are to everyone elses...



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

MrT-Tar on 09 January 2011

So for the games:

WSR - 2.2m

Kinect Adventures - 1.5m

LBP2 - 830k

MHP3 - 225k

The Last Story - 175k

 

and for the consoles:

Wii - 18m

PS3 - 15m

DS - 17m

360 - 16m

PSP - 8m

3DS - 9m




Conegamer on 09 January 2011
MrT-Tar said:

The Last Story - 175k

Not to pick on you specifically, but the range of sales predictons for this game goes from 55k, up to 215k. That's quite a range. Just how will people in Japan actually take to this game? I'm not Japanese, so I can't coment on the advertising, but it seems Nintendo want this to be pretty big. I'd say if it sells over 100k week 1, then we should get it localised, between 60-100, there's a chance, but slim, and below 60k, and we can pretty much forget about it coming over

 

(I believe it'll be similar to the Tri localisation announcement)



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer on 09 January 2011

Have now updated the OP with an analysis of people's predictions thus far, quite interesting when you look at it, as well as all of the other people who wish to take part, and/or any other predictions to date



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.