3rd parties are having decent success on the Wii right now-- they are finally realizing some quality games that are finding their intended target.  Games likes Udraw, Monster Hunter 3, Sonic Colours, Epic Mickey, Goldeneye, CoD: Black Ops, Michael Jackson, Just Dance 2, The Sims 3, Lego Hary Potter, Cabela, and Toy Story 3 have all performed well this year.

Only a few top tier 3rd party games flopped:  Red Steel 2, No More Heroes 2, Tiger Wood '11 (the onus is all on Tiger), and possibly a couple more. 

Do you think 3rd parties will see this success and continue to produce some quality exclusives for 2011?  The only big ones I know of so far are Lost in Shadow, Conduit 2,  possibly House of the Dead Overkill 2, and possibly Dragonquest X.

My personal opinion is that the 3DS may help to spur some quality 3rd party Wii game development.  There may be many cross-ports between the 2 systems. I don't know if this is a good thing or not, but I won't be too surprised if we see many dual versions of games on 3DS and Wii.  We already see it to a degree between DS and Wii, but now the systems will be even more similar.  The 3DS has some great 3rd party games lined up for it, hopefully some of these efforts also translate into better Wii games. 

I hope so.

Maybe devs will start making more PSWii titles now that Move is out?

The Wii is dead as far as third-parties are concerned.  Perhaps Nintendo might attract more support next generation, but there's roughly zero chance that the Wii will see any big-budget exclusives beyond Dragon Quest, and that one's only coming because Nintendo secured it several years ago.  And is it even still coming?  Maybe we should ask soriku for more news about it...

You are correct, I misused the term top-tier when I referred to Red Steel 2 and No More Heroes 2.  They are just quality games, but definitely not top tier.  The Wii only had a handful of top tier 3rd party efforts in 2010:  Epic Mickey, Monster Hunter 3, Goldeneye, and Black Ops and not many more.

As for the 3DS theory, I am only basing it on how many games get dual-releases on both the DS and the Wii.  Since the 3DS is going to be much more similar to the Wii, then it only stands to reason that there will also be many dual-releases between the 2 systems.  However, it remains to be seen if any big budget or top tier games actually will get  a dual-release.  I personally think that at least one publisher is going to be willing to try this strategy-- especially given the minimal porting effort and the huge user-base of the Wii.

I think there was a post about more info regarding Dragonquest X being revealed in a Japanese magazine later this month.

I agree that most big-budget 3rd party games are probably dead to the Wii-- they've been dead to the Wii ever since launch.  However, the conclusion of 2010 shows that there is still opportunity for 3rd party games to have million-selling games on the Wii. 

I believe that not only is there cross-porting potential between Wii and 3DS, there is also some cross-porting potential between Wii and Move.  I won't be surprised if Wii snags a few quality games, if not top tier games, this way. 

Yeah-- I think the Wii might see a few 3rd party games in 2011 due to Move as well as 3DS.  The games probably won't be the top tier AAA games, but there might be a handful of million seller games that rate in the 80-90% range. 

I know, but it turned out to be fake: I tossed that in to tease soriku.

As for the rest of your post, I think you vastly underestimate the time and energy it would take for developers to change course.  Wii-exclusives are out of the picture, because by the time a developer tools up and finishes the game the next generation is likely to have begun (and this assumes they're sufficiently impressed by the sales figures in the first place).  Making Wii/3DS games would not only require that the game sacrifice each system's most important feature, but also that developers see enough money in porting a portable game to a console.  The cross-polination with Move is plausible, except that Move seems to be DoA.

I edited my reply to you to better reflect what I was trying to say, but you replied quicker than I finished my edit.  I am not expecting many AAA games, but mainly a few AA games.  You are correct though that I misused the terminology of top tier. 

You 2nd point doesn't put my theory to rest because if they 3rd parties are putting some of their top guns on the 3DS then they already have 1 foot in the Nintendo boat.  How much of a leap is it for them to go all the way into that boat-- especially if they make more $$$ doing so?  I am willing to do a signature line bet that at least 1 AAA 3DS title will be dual-released on the Wii in 2011 and that several AA games will also see a dual-release. 

Ah, I didn't know that Dragonquest news was fake.  There seems to be a lot of fake news these days.

All your points are valid.  But how similar is the programming between Wii and 3DS?  The list of 3rd part exclusives on the 3DS is quite extensive right now.  Some of those publishers must be worried that there might be a little bit of over-crowding on the 3DS right now-- especially with Nintendo's own extensive line of 1st party software.  Is it really much of a stretch to think that some of them might be hedging their bets by considering  a release on the Wii as well?  I am not not saying we are going to see this line of thinking for a majority of the 3DS games, just a few.  Since many games are already cross-ported between DS/Wii, I don't think it will be a stretch to say we will also seem a few cross-ports between 3DS/Wii. 

You are right that Wii has had crap 3rd party support ever since inception.  2010 may have been the peak year-- especially since many development efforts may be shifting to the Wii successor.  As far as I know, however, there haven't been that many great 3rd party games for the DS in the couple years that were worth porting to the Wii anyway.  The 3DS, however, has a completely different set of games being released.  The 3DS resembles PSP and console gaming far more than the DS ever did.  That is one of the reasons I was thinking that Wii might snag a couple of the decent 3DS games.  Just a prediction.  And the 3rd party support of the Wii is just maddening, especially when one sees that quality games like Epic Mickey and Goldeneye actually do sell well.