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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sony reaffirms PS3 2010 sales projections

scat398 on 23 December 2010
DirtyP2002 said:
snfr said:
DirtyP2002 said:

The point that confuses some people is that all the numbers we get point in a totally different direction than Sonys numbers. Please do not point your fingers at someone who is confused by this. This is not a defense mode, just a simple question.

NPD showed PS3 in a very distant 3rd place and more or less flat for the year.
Media Create showed PS3 in decline. Being down YoY I think due to FFXIII last year.
The UK numbers we get show PS3 in third place.

Now Sony reports shipped numbers and suddenly the PS3 is outselling the Wii by quite a big margin. So I want to know where those PS3s are sold. Somewhere in Africa? not a big enough market. South America where you have to pay $1000 per console? Mexico is more a Xbox360 country.

I think nobody really knows including VGC.

I am not saying overshipped stuff, even though I wouldn't be surprised if Sony calculated things differently. It just puzzles me.

Ummm, the last time those heavy adjustments for the PS3 were made, it was because of Nintendo's data, not because of Sony's shipped numbers.

And somehow you seem to forget about the rest of Europe (you mentioned only UK, NA and Japan, then you "jumped" to Africa). You live in Germany just like me, so you should know that the PS3 is more popular here (honestly, I blame MS for that because they're not doing enough advertising here), and by looking at VGC numbers, it's the same in many other countries in Europe (like Spain, France or Italy).

But France, Italy, Germany and Spain are very tiny markets compared to UK, NA and Japan. The difference between the Xbox360 and PS3 in the US in November was like 800k. That is 300k more than the lifetime gap in Italy. So one month of Xbox 360 outselling the PS3 in the US was almost double the amount of consoles the PS3 outsold the Xbox360 in Italy for 4 years. Xbox is doing quite well in Scandinavia and Australia, but both markets are too small to make a difference.

I agree that MS should market the Xbox 360 in continental Europe. I saw 2 Xbox 360 commercials in the past 12 months. One for CoD Black ops and one for NFS Hot Pursuit. But it is the other way around in NA / UK I guess.

Sony seems to be off setting slower sales in NA and UK by opening new markets.  While I don't think many of these markets can support a console market only time will tell.  If initial shipments to the new markets sell, Sony will need to ship more,



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pachoo5 on 23 December 2010
MARCUSDJACKSON said:

2010 predictions                                            2011 predictions

Wii 83m                                                            Wii 95m

PS3 44-47m                                                      PS3 60m

360 48-50m                                                      360 58m


LOL, why do you think 360 sales will drop in 2011 from 13.5M in 2010 to just 8M in 2011? Do you think that happens just so PS3 can pass the 360 next year? LOL, not gonna happen, sorry. With a price drop in 2011 and continued momentum from Kinect, 2011 will be the best year yet for 360 sales.

I think at the end of 2011 there will be about 65M 360s worldwide and about 59M PS3s worldwide.



lolage on 23 December 2010
rrrnearrr said:
psrock said:

They are selling better somewhere not Japan or US i guess.


I think it's South America and some EMEAA countries, where VGC has no clue of what's happening


that explains why some analysts put the gap 1 million closer, 1 million no tracked in South America and PAL seems reasonable



lolage on 24 December 2010
DirtyP2002 said:
snfr said:
DirtyP2002 said:

The point that confuses some people is that all the numbers we get point in a totally different direction than Sonys numbers. Please do not point your fingers at someone who is confused by this. This is not a defense mode, just a simple question.

NPD showed PS3 in a very distant 3rd place and more or less flat for the year.
Media Create showed PS3 in decline. Being down YoY I think due to FFXIII last year.
The UK numbers we get show PS3 in third place.

Now Sony reports shipped numbers and suddenly the PS3 is outselling the Wii by quite a big margin. So I want to know where those PS3s are sold. Somewhere in Africa? not a big enough market. South America where you have to pay $1000 per console? Mexico is more a Xbox360 country.

I think nobody really knows including VGC.

I am not saying overshipped stuff, even though I wouldn't be surprised if Sony calculated things differently. It just puzzles me.

Ummm, the last time those heavy adjustments for the PS3 were made, it was because of Nintendo's data, not because of Sony's shipped numbers.

And somehow you seem to forget about the rest of Europe (you mentioned only UK, NA and Japan, then you "jumped" to Africa). You live in Germany just like me, so you should know that the PS3 is more popular here (honestly, I blame MS for that because they're not doing enough advertising here), and by looking at VGC numbers, it's the same in many other countries in Europe (like Spain, France or Italy).

But France, Italy, Germany and Spain are very tiny markets compared to UK, NA and Japan. The difference between the Xbox360 and PS3 in the US in November was like 800k. That is 300k more than the lifetime gap in Italy. So one month of Xbox 360 outselling the PS3 in the US was almost double the amount of consoles the PS3 outsold the Xbox360 in Italy for 4 years. Xbox is doing quite well in Scandinavia and Australia, but both markets are too small to make a difference.

I agree that MS should market the Xbox 360 in continental Europe. I saw 2 Xbox 360 commercials in the past 12 months. One for CoD Black ops and one for NFS Hot Pursuit. But it is the other way around in NA / UK I guess.

tiny? are you kidding me? they may be less but not tiny, that is just funny.



NotStan on 24 December 2010
pezus said:
pachoo5 said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:

2010 predictions                                            2011 predictions

Wii 83m                                                            Wii 95m

PS3 44-47m                                                      PS3 60m

360 48-50m                                                      360 58m


LOL, why do you think 360 sales will drop in 2011 from 13.5M in 2010 to just 8M in 2011? Do you think that happens just so PS3 can pass the 360 next year? LOL, not gonna happen, sorry. With a price drop in 2011 and continued momentum from Kinect, 2011 will be the best year yet for 360 sales.

I think at the end of 2011 there will be about 65M 360s worldwide and about 59M PS3s worldwide.

Do you really expect the PS3 to drop? I see it rising over 15 M with a price drop and maybe a slimmer slim model. Don't forget all the awesome games coming in 2011 too!

Yeah, I'd guess at least 61M for PS3 next year. 360 can hit about 63-64, depends whether Kinect will last and whether the sliced Kinect bundle will have bigger impact. Gap will narrow, but 360 will still lead.



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MARCUSDJACKSON on 27 December 2010
pachoo5 said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:

2010 predictions                                            2011 predictions

Wii 83m                                                            Wii 95m

PS3 44-47m                                                      PS3 60m

360 48-50m                                                      360 58m


LOL, why do you think 360 sales will drop in 2011 from 13.5M in 2010 to just 8M in 2011? Do you think that happens just so PS3 can pass the 360 next year? LOL, not gonna happen, sorry. With a price drop in 2011 and continued momentum from Kinect, 2011 will be the best year yet for 360 sales.

I think at the end of 2011 there will be about 65M 360s worldwide and about 59M PS3s worldwide.


its just a prejection, and don't think for one second that i care if it happens or not! the diff between your projections and mine is that you beleave thats whtas going to happen, and my projections will change.



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nightsurge on 27 December 2010

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 04th Apr 2010 to 18th Dec 2010:

Console PS3
Total
9,577,692

I know this is actual sold-thru figures, but it is still telling.

Someone else posted shipments and it seems the PS3 has to ship 9.1 million in the next 2 quarters to reach 15 million.

My only problem with this is that the OCT-DEC quarter should be down a decent chunk over last year.

It will be really close and it all depends on just how much the JAN-MAR sells this year.



psrock on 27 December 2010
nightsurge said:
VGChartz Hardware data for the period 04th Apr 2010 to 18th Dec 2010:
Console PS3 X360
Total
9,577,692
9,793,055

I know this is actual sold-thru figures, but it is still telling.

Someone else posted shipments and it seems the PS3 has to ship 9.1 million in the next 2 quarters to reach 15 million.

My only problem with this is that the OCT-DEC quarter should be down a decent chunk over last year.

It will be really close and it all depends on just how much the JAN-MAR sells this year.


I think you just wanted to show the 360 has outsold the PS3 since April till now which has nothing to do with thread. More telling is the fact, All Sony needs is 6 million for the DEC quater and 3 million for the Jan one. This can be done.



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nightsurge on 27 December 2010
psrock said:
nightsurge said:
VGChartz Hardware data for the period 04th Apr 2010 to 18th Dec 2010:
Console PS3
Total
9,577,692

I know this is actual sold-thru figures, but it is still telling.

Someone else posted shipments and it seems the PS3 has to ship 9.1 million in the next 2 quarters to reach 15 million.

My only problem with this is that the OCT-DEC quarter should be down a decent chunk over last year.

It will be really close and it all depends on just how much the JAN-MAR sells this year.


I think you just wanted to show the 360 has outsold the PS3 since April till now which has nothing to do with thread. More telling is the fact, All Sony needs is 6 million for the DEC quater and 3 million for the Jan one. This can be done.

I was showing relevant sell thru data in relation to Sony's shipment data.  Didn't mean to put 360 in there so I edited it out just now.  To be even close to reasonable shipment/sale through comparison numbers, the PS3 will need to sell another 2.5 to 3 million over the next 2 weeks which I see it falling quite a bit short of that.

Sony will be down by ~800k to 1 million for this OCT-DEC quarter, though, which means the JAN-MAR needs to ship ~3.6 to 3.8 million.



psrock on 27 December 2010
nightsurge said:
psrock said:
nightsurge said:
VGChartz Hardware data for the period 04th Apr 2010 to 18th Dec 2010:
Console PS3
Total
9,577,692

I know this is actual sold-thru figures, but it is still telling.

Someone else posted shipments and it seems the PS3 has to ship 9.1 million in the next 2 quarters to reach 15 million.

My only problem with this is that the OCT-DEC quarter should be down a decent chunk over last year.

It will be really close and it all depends on just how much the JAN-MAR sells this year.


I think you just wanted to show the 360 has outsold the PS3 since April till now which has nothing to do with thread. More telling is the fact, All Sony needs is 6 million for the DEC quater and 3 million for the Jan one. This can be done.

I was showing relevant sell thru data in relation to Sony's shipment data.  Didn't mean to put 360 in there so I edited it out just now.

Sony will be down by ~800k to 1 million for this OCT-DEC quarter, though, which means the JAN-MAR needs to ship ~3.6 to 3.8 million.

Really, I did note realize it, where did you get this number?

Oct 2010 to Now = 4,942.490

oct 2009 to DEc 19th 2009 =    5,327,208

So much for the PS3 doing badly, huh



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