Well they all have their strengths and weaknesses.

Microsoft:

• Live and Live services as well as software and OS development
• Unique interface unlike the other two which can be augmented with a wand if they want.
• Higher present hardware revenues and very high software revenues

Nintendo:

• Strength on market at present
• Untouchable 1st party with unique value
• most improveable console hardware to entice current generation supporters forwards.

Sony:

• strong brand name still, especially in fast growing minor regions (presently)
• strongest 3rd/2nd party relations in Japan which is still a prolific game making region
• much of the potential held back by internal issues which can be resolved, untapped SCE potential?

Weaknesses:

Microsoft:

• Just not liked in certain parts of the world.
• Live revenues can be lost if strong competitor develops.
• Mixed focus between Kinect, Xbox, Windows Phone and Live services all requiring attention.

Nintendo:

• Reports of many buyers vastly slowing down rate of purchases after 6 months, may have difficulty getting people already satisfied with their Wii Fit / party machine to upgrade.
• Not much online so to speak going up against a developed and very developed service.
• Repeatability of some major franchises is sort of questionable, especially the Wii centric ones.

Sony:

• They make a point in making hardcore expensive titles, this may not be competitve against 3rd parties with 2-3 more platforms to release on whom may be able to afford a much higher budget.
• Extensive losses and a desire to prevent further losses may crimp development budgets and release budgets.
• Overall strategy seems mixed whilst the other two have tended to be much more focused in their efforts.

So to say that one will definately take the lead whilst the others falter does not find any real basis in logical thought at this point. Wishful thinking is a more polite way of saying it.

Based on historical trends for consoles, I do think the Wii2 will surpass the 720 and PS4 in sales. The home console leader changes every 2 generations; we have Atari (Pong, 2600), Nintendo (NES, SNES), Sony (PS1, PS2), and now Nintendo again (Wii, ??). In all prior cases the leader was dethroned for, in a sense, being too cocky. The twist here is that Nintendo entering the cycle again is the first time a company has lost, then regained, market leader position. Will they be able to styme the 2 generation cycle, with the knowledge of before? Or will they overcorrect, and lose out next gen? I think the interest with the Wii2 will be enough to at least keep them in the lead next gen, but I'm making no predictions now for after that.

I disagree with this completely.

The hardware on the next Xbox at least will be a big step up and developers don't have to use that power right away.  It can be a slow burn.  Yes, this generation is going to be near 10 years and that is a good thing for the reasons you listed, but I feel Nintendo is the one that is in trouble here.

In a few years we will have DirectX 12 hardware and it will be much cheaper over time and by the time the next generation games come out we will have easier methods to automate console driven geometry.   Console makers can come out with a console for $250 - $300 easily at launch that will have that power built in along with 802.11 n wireless and gigabytes of ram with a bluray drive.

The problem with the Super Wii?  Will it have something that is so different by then that people will want to buy, if not it is screwed.  Because that is the real issue isn't it?

Video games just like computers have 3 cycles when playing a video game:

  1) Input (gamepad, keyboard, motion control)

  2) Processing (processing of A.I. , Physics, and gameplay)

  3) Output (graphics, HDTV, SDTV)

  What is left for Nintendo to do that is not too expensive or has not already been done?

   A) Kinect type of stuff (Input)? Super Wii is not going to do Kinect (Nintendo usually does

        not do what others are doing)

   B) Projector (output) for a built in display that they can manipulate at will (too expensive)

   C) Mind control using a wireless device (Input) - Possible, but does it offer the same control and flexibility as Kinect?

   D) 3D (output) is going to be available for the other two as well and unlike the 3DS, you cannot control the output

        here because you don't have a built in screen.

Nintendo has done a lot in the Wii generation already.  Wii fit with the balance boards, Motion , vitality sensor and you have the others with Kinect and 3D for the home using glasses and eventually without them so I don't see where Nintendo can really go.  Sure it can make Super wii backwards compatible with the regular Wii, but now what?  How are you going to make lightning strike twice?

Just one thing to keep in mind (ATI) or AMD now has been exceptional at keeping secrets and deliberately spreading misinformation. Consider the speculation on their latest card Cayman, that is a nightmare of fake information spread from official levels.

I think yes. If it launches first one of two things will happen;

1. Microsoft and Sony will stick with their consoles and new controllers for the "10-year plan", hoping to topple the Wii LT (which may not happen), therefore giving the Wii an untoppable 3-4 years in market, all the 3rd party support for the 8th gen and at least a 25mil console cushion to play with (probably at least double that)

2. MS and sony will be forced to release their console a year after at the latest, keeping hold of Nintendo 8th gen, but losing a load of money on Kinect and Move, hence to cut the loss, will release it with their next console. With this they won't have the inovation needed once again, so will fall behind Nintendo for this gen and next once again. Apart from all 3 will have similar graphical/online capabilities!

So, yeah, if Nintendo release/ announce a release date for Wii2 in the next 8-12 months, then Sony and Microsoft are DOOMED!

I personally believe the launch of motion controls are to serve as cushion for the release of next home consoles.

In my opinion, Microsoft lacks number of exclusives on stand alone xbox which is why now we have Kinect and it's lineup . Lower budget games but with many risks ofcourse.

Then we have Sony. The Move is an attempt to give the ps3 more life in the market; and they must try to keep the ps3 in the market as long as possible to recuperate some of the losses before the launch of the ps4.

As for Nintendo, sure the Wii may not be as dominant as before but it's still on top and will stay on top before the next gen console launches.

I don't believe we will see a new system until atleast fall 2012, being the nextbox. Sony will launch ps4 and nintendo will launch the Zii in 2013. Im eyeing a spring 2013 when their FY begins.

There is no way that Nintendo is launching Super Wii in 2011, no way.  Their focus has to be the 3DS and that is where the software is.  It is pointless to try to rush a Superwii out when they won't have the software resources to do it nor would they want to take away from the 3DS.

I think this time Sony and Microsoft will be way more aware of what innovation Nintendo brings to the table and will be quicker to copy it if it is seen as a major success like the Wiimote.

Only if Nintendo can pull of a unique feature that no other can copy, and I really doubt that...

It's more like they have no choices except AMD. There are only two vendors with capable enough graphics, and Nintendo has used AMD (ATI/ArtX) since the N64, Microsoft can't use Nvidia due to the Xbox 1 issue and Sony can't use them due to the PS3 issue.

I would be skeptical about specs turning up for those consoles, but not who's going to make the card.

Off topic - Yeah Cayman/Barts have been amazingly well obfuscated. No one has any idea of its performance, pricing or shader count.

good points