Nintendo will have the advantage next gen. I say that because of what developers are saying about next gen consoles. They are already spending too much money on developing games for the current 360 and PS3 and are not ready to move on to next gen, some of them might never be ready. They will eather stick to the current consoles out there for a bit longer or develop for Nintendos new machine. 

Now Nintendos console does not need that big of a jump as the other two because it is advancing over the Wii. So it will ether be as powerful or just a bit more powerful than the current HD consoles. 

now if Sony and MS does what they did with 360 and PS3 over their last gen then they will not have that much support and even if they did the games will be shorter or take way too long to develop and release.

but if they are smart >_> which i doubt seeing the rumors about the PSP2 (if they are true that is which I believe are) ... they will release consoles that are a bit more powerful than the current gen. 

I know some of you still believes in the 10y life cycle MS and Sony have said but I am sure that When Nintendo releases their next gen system the others will be forced out. 

having them on the market for 10y does not mean they will not release their next gen machines. Same thing did happen with the PS2

Nintendo saw this coming and they did the right thing by not jumping that far with the Wii. 

So do you think guys of what? 

I'm also fairly certain that some of the current fans of the HD consoles will have to buy the Wii2 should the prices for buying PS4/720 games become too expensive.

According to Charlie at S|A (who is reliable on this kind of thing), Nintendo will have their new console at least two years before the others, because MS and Sony just put their hardware out to rebid (have restarteed the design process) so will take many years to bring it to market, while Nintendo has already finished.

Nintendo will use an AMD GPU.
Microsoft will use an AMD GPU.
Sony was betting on Intel's Larrabee but that was cancelled and Nvidia screwed them over so they were forced to redesign with an AMD GPU.

A huge lead in launch timing will mean they win regardless.

Might not :P Alot fo developers make games for wii because its so much cheaper than ps3/360. Thats why it has so much bloody shovelware XD

How exactly do you know this? :P

I think the original post is fairly solid because the recent past with the PS1 and PS2 have shown that timing in releasing consoles 18 months ahead or more of the competition translates into a higher market share (particularly in the US where newness and novelty is fairly important).

The PS1 released in 1994 squashed the Nintendo 64 (released in 1996) and Sega Dreamcast (released in 1998). The PS2 dominated both the Gamecube, mainly because the PS2 was the cheapest DVD player on the market as the world was transitioning from VHS to DVD in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and Xbox. Essentially, PS2 was not 18 months or more ahead literally, but what it was years ahead compared to the Gamecube and Xbox in taking advantage of the new media format before it's competitors.

This timing of using the new media format (Blu Ray) with the PS3 turned out to be a freaking flop for the PS3. Why? Digital download popularized by Napster was already on the scene and competing with Blu Ray by 2006. There was no third format between the VHS and DVD, however there was between the DVD and Blu Ray.

I have not heard anything of the Xbox 360 successor, so I cannot comment on the direction Microsoft is taking. However, once Kinect has been out a year, the picture will be much clearer. I speculate that Microsoft may release the first direct download only console where all new games are made available via Live for a $30-50 price tag (depending on anticipation and development costs).

If the PS3 is any indication, we can all expect Sony to release the PS4 last with it being the most powerful system, most expensive to create, and thus the most expensive at retail. Will it have a $600 entry level price like the PS3 did in 2006? I don't think so, but if it is over $300 then it may struggle to compete as we all know Nintendo will do their best to set the tone of the latest generation by releasing the Wii 2 first at a price around $200.

I think Nintendo is in an excellent position. However, the one thing nagging at me is that Nintendo is no longer at the bottom of the barrel like they were with the Nintendo 64 and Gamecube. Undisputably, Nintendo is the top dog or "The Man" this generation. The question I ask is,

"Being on top this generation, will Nintendo still have that chip on their shoulder come Wii 2 or has the success of the Wii made Nintendo so self confident to the point of arrogance where they take the Blue Ocean for granted, let Kinect and Move encroach on their Blue Ocean, and fail to go after the core customer base of Sony and Microsoft?"

I think it´s still too soon for that...the rate of people who have high speed internet that would download a full 720 game without taking too long still isn´t high enough to justify, like you said, the first direct download only console in the next 2-3 years.

Maybe when we´re talking about the 720´s successor..but not the 360´s successor, that´s what I think.

Business-wise, a direct download only console makes perfect sense. You cut out a lot the manufacturing, storage, and distribution costs. This being said, I agree it is too soon because there are many folks like myself who feel ownership when we purchase a hard copy. Direct download be it a NetFlix subscription or direct download video gaming leaves me with the feeling that I am renting access to the product, not owning it.

I don't see why MS and Sony would be forced to release new generation consoles, as launching late in the gen doesn't always mean failure. Nintendo launched the Wii in November 2006, and it has handily crushed the Xbox (launched November 2001) and its own GameCube (September 2001). It's even tracking above the mighty PS2 (March 2000).

you either do not understand wtf you are talking about or are you considering the WIi to be part of the GCN, XBOX and PS2 generation?