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The Official November 2010 NPD Thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official November 2010 NPD Thread

MaxwellGT2000 said:
TRios_Zen said:

While I agree that data CAN sometimes be meaningless, I'm not sure I'm following your argument here.

The data in this chart IS presented as "Revenue" data.  Nothing disingenuous there.  additionally the size of the "accessories" pie chart is clearly skewed given the cost of Kinect, and while that is not explicit here, a passing knowledge of sales and this market would tell you that.  Finally while your cost/profit argument IS true, that would be relevant at a more macro level, or if you were trying to prove something about earnings here...however that is not what is being presented.

From this data, you can see that revenues, in America were clearly skewed in favor of the 360, period.  Anything else that is inferred from this would basically be user error, no? 


My argument wasn't about what's being discussed, but rather that the data is outright meaningless,and then presented examples of why it is useless.  Essentially it's a waste of peoples time and the average poster takes more from it than what it is, more or less it's me informing people of what they're looking at before they go around yelling about the data from the highest mountain.

And yes anything more would be user error but with revenue, people tend to translate that to, wow that company made a lot of money, people typically get it confused with profit, you probably know that as well as I do.

Me personally my objective is to see the game industry thrive so I'll always be focused on companies staying alive so I can keep on playing good games

Fair enough.  I just think it's disingenuous to suggest that revenue is meaningless; it IS just a piece of the puzzle for sure, but not completely meaningless, but I understand your argument now.

No reason to derail any further though, peace.

By the way, I absolutely agree: the continued success of the three players this generation ensure a highly competitive market now and next gen, which is a win for gamers.



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Nsanity said:
pezus said:
postofficebuddy said:

Black Ops (360): 4.9 million

Black Ops (PS3): 3.1 million

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/31995/Exclusive_Black_Ops_For_Xbox_360_Sells_Nearly_5_Million_In_US.php


Damn!! Look at the growth for the PS3 version from MW2. Both versions are probably undertracked but the PS3 version is undertracked by a lot!

It's always the PS3 is undertracked with you guys.

No, it's not. But I think it's quite clear looking at NPD that the PS3 version was undertracked...

PS3 was overtracked by VGC in US in November so it's not always undertracked.



MaxwellGT2000 said:
Nsanity said:

 

Sony responds to NPD data

This holiday season PlayStation celebrates, along with the video game industry, as NPD reports a 9% year over year industry increase in overall dollar sales. The early blockbuster success of PlayStation Move has undoubtedly helped to pave the way for us as we head into 2011. The library of hard core and social gamer titles currently on the store shelves (EyePet, Get Fit with Mel B, Gran Turismo 5, Tiger Woods PGA Tour 11, SingStar Dance) as well those to come (Uncharted 3: Drake’s Deception, LittleBigPlanet 2, Twisted Metal, Killzone 3) will only continue to solidify our place in the living room. In fact, the strength of Move’s technology infrastructure in allowing our developers to make already released titles Move compatible, will help broaden the net of their existing PS3 titles, bringing them to life even further with PlayStation Move. We’re pleased that consumers continue to look to PlayStation for innovative and unique entertainment experiences. As we head into the new year, with almost every PlayStation Move sku in short supply and on allocation, I think we will continue to see a steady surge of positive growth for our home entertainment offerings simply because customers looking for strong product value, quality entertainment offerings, depth in gaming and content (original programming, NetFlix, Hulu Plus, NHL, MLB), will choose PlayStation.nal programming, NetFlix, Hulu Plus, NHL, MLB), will choose PlayStation.

http://www.gamingeverything.com/2010/12/sony_responds_to_npd_data


Well we were expecting the spin, didn't really expect that response, it's like here's one positive number we can display and now a lot of promotion and advertising for their future titles lol

I think he meant casual



MaxwellGT2000 said:
TRios_Zen said:
MaxwellGT2000 said:
Nsanity said:
Edouble24 said:

Nice chart showing revenue for the month. 360 going strong. 

hot damn!


Oh what you can get away with when you say revenue revenue data is quite literally useless to anyone but the publisher/manufacturer and it's only for their titles/products.  It's like this Wii sells 1m software units at 50  while 360 does 1m units at 60, revenue from the Wii title is 50m dollars, the 360 title brings in 60m dollars and therefore a higher % on a pie chart like that, the only problem? If a title like that cost something like 45 million on the 360 and 11.25 million on Wii, after console makers get their cut, you count expenses like production of discs and shipment, the 360 title breaks even, and the Wii game came out making a mint.

The same can be applied to those months PS3 were sold at a loss, they could have the entire pie, Sony still wasn't doing good business.  So yeah revenue charts, in general, are some of the most useless data you could ever be given, only good to fan some console war flames.

While I agree that data CAN sometimes be meaningless, I'm not sure I'm following your argument here.

The data in this chart IS presented as "Revenue" data.  Nothing disingenuous there.  additionally the size of the "accessories" pie chart is clearly skewed given the cost of Kinect, and while that is not explicit here, a passing knowledge of sales and this market would tell you that.  Finally while your cost/profit argument IS true, that would be relevant at a more macro level, or if you were trying to prove something about earnings here...however that is not what is being presented.

From this data, you can see that revenues, in America were clearly skewed in favor of the 360, period.  Anything else that is inferred from this would basically be user error, no? 


My argument wasn't about what's being discussed, but rather that the data is outright meaningless,and then presented examples of why it is useless.  Essentially it's a waste of peoples time and the average poster takes more from it than what it is, more or less it's me informing people of what they're looking at before they go around yelling about the data from the highest mountain.

And yes anything more would be user error but with revenue, people tend to translate that to 'wow that company made a lot of money', people typically get it confused with profit, you probably know that as well as I do.

Me personally my objective is to see the game industry thrive so I'll always be focused on companies staying alive so I can keep on playing good games

Yes its only a part of the picture...

To get profit you NEED revenue...  and yes I am constantly saying to people that "revenue is vanity and profit is sanity".

But in this instance the revenue comparison isnt remotely bogus and is a helpful and informative measure in this circumstance particularly when the selling price for the 360 is less than the PS3 and yet the revcenue is almost twice.



I'm not really here!

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Kowenicki when I make an estimate in a thread like this for the end of the year its just off the top of my head. You're on my ass every time I say something you find stupid. If I did the same thing to people I'd be at something like 3 million posts. Relax. If I'm not doing an article I haven't looked at my forecasting models or run totals its just to address a specific comment roughly.



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When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

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TheSource said:

Kowenicki when I make an estimate in a thread like this for the end of the year its just off the top of my head. You're on my ass every time I say something you find stupid. If I did the same thing to people I'd be at something like 3 million posts. Relax. If I'm not doing an article I haven't looked at my forecasting models or run totals its just to address a specific comment roughly.


I think the "problem" Kowenicki has is that he has more expectations of the predictions made by you, one of the analysts of VGChartz, than any other forum user. That's why he has a reason to be nitpick, after all you are TheSource!



Well dude if revenue data is useless to you, ignore it. Some people, myself included, are interested in the data. I like to know where people spend their money, broken down by console. Don't see why that's bad. 



Edouble24 said:

Nice chart showing revenue for the month. 360 going strong. 

I have my doubt that hardware chart is completely right. For this to be correct Xbox 360 needs to have an average price of almost twice that of a Wii and PS3 even needs an average price of over 2.5 times that of the Wii.



Kynes said:
TheSource said:

Kowenicki when I make an estimate in a thread like this for the end of the year its just off the top of my head. You're on my ass every time I say something you find stupid. If I did the same thing to people I'd be at something like 3 million posts. Relax. If I'm not doing an article I haven't looked at my forecasting models or run totals its just to address a specific comment roughly.


I think the "problem" Kowenicki has is that he has more expectations of the predictions made by you, one of the analysts of VGChartz, than any other forum user. That's why he has a reason to be nitpick, after all you are TheSource!


I agree with this.  I'm sure its nothing personal.  Off the top of your head, while you're half sleep or mostly drunk, The Source's estimates should be better than ours as they're based on data we aren't privy to.



kowenicki said:
MaxwellGT2000 said:
TRios_Zen said:
MaxwellGT2000 said:
Nsanity said:
Edouble24 said:

Nice chart showing revenue for the month. 360 going strong. 

hot damn!


Oh what you can get away with when you say revenue  revenue data is quite literally useless to anyone but the publisher/manufacturer and it's only for their titles/products.  It's like this Wii sells 1m software units at 50  while 360 does 1m units at 60, revenue from the Wii title is 50m dollars, the 360 title brings in 60m dollars and therefore a higher % on a pie chart like that, the only problem? If a title like that cost something like 45 million on the 360 and 11.25 million on Wii, after console makers get their cut, you count expenses like production of discs and shipment, the 360 title breaks even, and the Wii game came out making a mint.

The same can be applied to those months PS3 were sold at a loss, they could have the entire pie, Sony still wasn't doing good business.  So yeah revenue charts, in general, are some of the most useless data you could ever be given, only good to fan some console war flames.

While I agree that data CAN sometimes be meaningless, I'm not sure I'm following your argument here.

The data in this chart IS presented as "Revenue" data.  Nothing disingenuous there.  additionally the size of the "accessories" pie chart is clearly skewed given the cost of Kinect, and while that is not explicit here, a passing knowledge of sales and this market would tell you that.  Finally while your cost/profit argument IS true, that would be relevant at a more macro level, or if you were trying to prove something about earnings here...however that is not what is being presented.

From this data, you can see that revenues, in America were clearly skewed in favor of the 360, period.  Anything else that is inferred from this would basically be user error, no? 


My argument wasn't about what's being discussed, but rather that the data is outright meaningless,and then presented examples of why it is useless.  Essentially it's a waste of peoples time and the average poster takes more from it than what it is, more or less it's me informing people of what they're looking at before they go around yelling about the data from the highest mountain.

And yes anything more would be user error but with revenue, people tend to translate that to 'wow that company made a lot of money', people typically get it confused with profit, you probably know that as well as I do.

Me personally my objective is to see the game industry thrive so I'll always be focused on companies staying alive so I can keep on playing good games 

Yes its only a part of the picture...

To get profit you NEED revenue...  and yes I am constantly saying to people that "revenue is vanity and profit is sanity".

But in this instance the revenue comparison isnt remotely bogus and is a helpful and informative measure in this circumstance particularly when the selling price for the 360 is less than the PS3 and yet the revcenue is almost twice.


Uh... one sku being the arcade/core is cheaper than the PS3, two of them are the price of a PS3... and you have one that is 100 dollars more... Yeah we know the 360 sold more hardware units than the PS3 we have numbers for that, there's no reason to justify it more with revenue numbers. Again just adding fuel to some stupid console war between forum posters.  

And this actually makes me think where did these guys get their revenue numbers from exactly? They posted this:

"Stitching together figures and proportions provided in the comments of Michael Pachter (analyst for Wedbush Securities), Anita Frazier (analyst for the NPD Group), and in Microsoft's own press release, we have what we believe is a reasonable picture of the Xbox 360's strong showing last month."

Which still doesn't tell me where they got their SKU breakdown, NPD didn't provide it that's for sure, and if they don't have that they don't even have accurate revenue data.  

So really what is the need to continue this rubbish?  Revenue data without an expenses report, the revenue data is "stitched" together, and we already have console sales data... what more is there to prove?  This data isn't doing anything.



MaxwellGT2000 - "Does the amount of times you beat it count towards how hardcore you are?"

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